While salmon prices one year ago ended optimistically above NOK 30 during the last week of December, market expectations point now at prices to end in 2013 in the mid-NOK 50s. Prices would reach a rise of NOK 20-25 per kilo.
The senior seafood analyst at Norwegian investment bank Nordea said prices have gone “beyond anyone’s imagination” in December. Kolbjorn Giskeodegard stated an imbalance between supply and demand, and a highly favorable currency exchange development between the Norwegian kroner (NOK) and the euro (improved 15% in one year) as the fundamental factors behind the salmon price jump.
But prices for other main seafood categories out of Norway were fairly stable, except for haddock, where prices also doubled in the past twelve months following tight supply side.
Chile lagging Europe
The prices of fresh Chilean salmon fillets in nthe US market nearly doubled during 2013, but from a very low level in 2012. However, prices to farmers in Chile were substantially lower than in Europe, at above NOK 30, compared to above NOK 50. Experts believe this price difference is artificially high.
On the fishmeal and fish oil prices side, a decline during 2013 was driven by the outlook for higher quotas in Peru next year.
Fishmeal prices were 20% lower by year-end than the levels seen one year ago, while the soybean meal prices stood more or less flat at the same level.
“We should expect lower feed prices in the coming year of NOK 0.50 per kilo. Combined with expected high salmon spot prices and increased contract prices, we expect earnings improvement to continue for salmon farmers in 2014,” said Giskeodegard.
Talking about cod prices, Giskeodegard said probabilities are high for rises well above the low levels seen during 2013, because “the market has expanded, while a five-year supply growth comes to an end in 2014″.
Estimates about sales value of all key species out of Norway indicate a further improvement in 2014, he said.