(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s tilapia exports to the United States declined significantly in the first seven months of 2026. Cumulative export value reached US$18 million, down 42% from the same period in 2025. In July alone, exports amounted to just US$2 million, plunging 70%, indicating a clear slowdown in import demand from the US market.
Despite this decline, the United States remains an important market for Vietnam’s tilapia industry, accounting for more than 20% of total export value during the first seven months of the year. Notably, frozen tilapia fillets accounted for approximately 84% of Vietnam’s export product mix to the US, indicating that this remains the market’s preferred product line and has the potential to sustain demand over the longer term.
However, the outlook for the final months of the year remains challenging. The US market currently has relatively ample inventories, while importers are mainly purchasing to meet immediate needs rather than building up large stocks. This cautious approach is limiting new orders while putting pressure on prices and suppliers’ profit margins.
Meanwhile, Vietnamese tilapia faces competition from suppliers in China, Indonesia and Brazil. China continues to maintain relatively stable supply and remains a notable competitor in the US market. However, China’s tilapia industry is facing pressure from raw material shortages and rising production costs. Signs of higher raw material prices in August could lead to further price adjustments for Chinese tilapia, but not enough to give Vietnam a clear competitive advantage.
In addition, uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, including the additional 12.5% tariff under Section 301 on imported tilapia, continues to influence purchasing decisions among US businesses. While the policy could create some competitive space for alternative suppliers, high inventories and cautious importer sentiment mean that this opportunity has yet to translate into immediate export growth for Vietnam.
From now through the end of the year, US importers are likely to maintain a cautious purchasing strategy, waiting for inventories to decline and for greater clarity on tariff developments. With supply sources becoming increasingly diversified, Vietnamese tilapia will find it difficult to compete on price alone.
Vietnamese exporters should therefore focus less on a rapid recovery in the US market and more on improving product quality, securing stable raw material supplies, meeting international certification requirements and developing value-added products. At the same time, expanding into other markets would help reduce dependence on the US and create greater room for more sustainable growth.
The US remains a large and high-potential market, but growth driven by simply expanding volumes has become increasingly difficult. For Vietnamese tilapia, competitive advantages in the coming period will depend increasingly on quality, consistency and the ability to meet the market’s increasingly demanding requirements.