(seafood.vasep.com.vn) 2026 is rapidly shaping up to be a formidable stress test for Vietnamese pangasius exports to the United States. While exports to alternative markets maintain a resilient growth trajectory, the U.S market has declined significantly. In the first eight months of the year, pangasius exports to the U.S fell by nearly 14% year-on-year, with August alone recording a decline of more than 50%. The trend shows that difficulties in the U.S. market are not driven solely by weak consumer demand, but also by multiple layers of trade barriers that are intensifying simultaneously, particularly additional import tariffs, anti-dumping duties and growing protectionism for the domestic catfish industry.
Mounting ressure from "tax-on-tax"
Starting February 24, 2026, the U.S slapped a 10% import surcharge on Vietnamese goods for a 150-day period. When the measure expired on July 24, Vietnamese goods became subject to an additional 12.5% tariff under Section 301. For pangasius, this tariff is added to existing trade duties, most notably anti-dumping duties.
In August 2026, the U.S Department of Commerce issued its final determinations for the POR21, setting rates of $1.00/kg for Bien Dong Seafood Co.; $0.38/kg for NTSF and $0.84/kg for CASEAMEX and NAVICO. The Vietnam-wide entity rate remains at $2.39/kg.
While the actual duties levied on individual firms hinge on their specific legal standing and the precedents of prior reviews, simultaneous application of the additional 12.5% tariff and anti-dumping duties has significantly increased the cost of bringing Vietnamese pangasius into the U.S market.
A resurgent wave of catfish protectionism
Beyond tariff measures, 2026 has flashed multiple warning signs of intensifying political firepower rallying behind the domestic US catfish industry.
Lawmakers hailing from catfish-producing states have called on the government to provide greater support for the industry amid high production costs and declining business performance. The U.S Department of Agriculture has also carried out catfish purchases for food and nutrition programs, thereby supporting market outlets for domestic producers.
More notably, the most alarming development is the proposed Domestic Market Restoration Act of 2026 (S.4945). Under this draconian legislative draft, Vietnamese pangasius imports under HS code 0304.62.00 would be throttled by a strict annual quota of 84 million kilograms. Imports within the quota would be subject to a proposed 50% tariff, while quantities exceeding the quota could face tariffs of up to 200%, in addition to other applicable duties.
Although the bill has not yet passed into law, the tabling of such prohibitive quotas and tariffs underscores a marked intensification of protectionist sentiment. If earlier trade disputes were narrowly focused on company-specific anti-dumping margins, these latest legislative maneuvers herald a shift toward blunt, industry-wide defensive measures.
Weak consumer spending squeezes cost pass-throughs
These shifting trade winds are colliding with a notably sour US retail market. In August 2026, fresh seafood sales across American retailers slumped by more than 7% year-on-year, while frozen seafood sales declined by more than 7% in value and more than 8% in volume.
These figures are not specific to pangasius, they accurately reflect the chilling retail environment for whitefish. With consumer wallets squeezed, retailers and importers have limited ability to pass the full increase in tariff-related costs on to buyers. The pressure therefore tends to flow back through the supply chain, prompting importers to negotiate more aggressively on prices while exporters must balance the need to maintain orders against the need to protect profit margins.
Technical barriers remain high
Beyond tariffs, Vietnamese pangasius continues to be subject to the U.S Department of Agriculture’s catfish inspection program.
Although Vietnam has successfully secured "equivalency" status for its safety control systems, inbound shipments remain tethered to mandatory inspections at designated US facilities. Depending on the compliance history of the country, processing plant and individual shipment, authorities may examine documentation and labeling, assess product condition or collect samples.
While this regulatory red tape is nothing new, its financial sting is severely magnified in the current climate. The compounding costs of inspection delays, prolonged cold-storage warehousing, and strict compliance protocols are silently piling onto the already bloated cost of market entry.
Overall, the challenges facing Vietnamese pangasius in the U.S in 2026 do not stem from any single factor, but from the cumulative effect of multiple pressures: additional import tariffs, prolonged anti-dumping duties, growing protectionism for domestic producers and weak consumer demand. This is making it increasingly difficult to maintain market share in the U.S, particularly for companies facing high duty rates or relying heavily on the price-sensitive frozen fillet segment.