(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached US$3.3 billion in the first eight months of 2026, up 12% year on year. However, growth has begun to slow and become more differentiated across markets, while the U.S. and EU continue to present significant challenges. The latest insights from the Global Shrimp Forum 2026 (GSF 2026), held in early September, also indicate that the final months of the year will remain highly competitive as global supply continues to expand and buyers increasingly focus on quality, product specifications, supply stability and the ability to meet market-specific demand.
According to Vietnam Customs data, shrimp exports in August 2026 reached US$478.5 million, up 4.2% year on year. Cumulative exports in the first eight months totaled US$3.3 billion, an increase of 12%. Whiteleg shrimp remained the largest category, generating more than US$2 billion, up 7.6%; black tiger shrimp reached nearly US$318 million, up 7.4%; while other shrimp products totaled US$936.6 million, rising 25%.
China remains the key growth driver, while the U.S. and EU add pressure
China and Hong Kong continued to be the biggest growth driver, with exports reaching nearly US$1.12 billion, up 35.9% and accounting for 34.1% of Vietnam’s total shrimp exports in the first eight months. China alone recorded more than US$1.07 billion, up 38.2%. This was the strongest growth among major markets and continued to provide significant support for the industry’s overall export performance.
In contrast, exports to the U.S. reached US$436.1 million, down 11.7%, with August alone falling 12.6%. The EU also failed to generate new momentum, with exports totaling US$355.3 million, down 3.6%; August exports dropped 23.5%. Meanwhile, exports to Japan increased 6.1% to US$388.5 million, Australia rose 18.2%, and Canada increased 6.5%. Exports to CPTPP markets reached US$901 million, up 11%, highlighting the importance of market diversification for Vietnam’s shrimp industry.
In the U.S., the supply-side competitive landscape is changing rapidly. Ecuador continues to expand its presence, particularly in peeled shrimp, while India remains a major competitor and can quickly adjust product flows between the U.S. and other markets. Insights gathered at GSF 2026 also suggest that current U.S. demand is not strong enough to absorb rising supply simply through lower prices. Importers and retailers are increasingly interested in peeled, processed and convenient shrimp products to capture additional value.
For Vietnamese shrimp, pressure is also coming from a complex trade environment. Frozen warm-water shrimp continues to be subject to AD/CVD measures and related review processes. From July 2026, the U.S. imposed a Section 301 tariff of 12.5% on Vietnamese goods within its scope, except for exempt products; under the same measure, Ecuador, India and Indonesia face a 10% rate. As a result, competitiveness in the U.S. increasingly depends on the total cost of bringing products to market, in addition to selling prices and product mix.
In the EU, consumer demand has become somewhat more cautious, but information presented at GSF indicates that value-added products continue to demonstrate greater resilience than raw shrimp. This is a segment where Vietnam has strengths in peeled, cooked, breaded, seasoned, ready-to-cook and more complex customized products. However, this advantage is no longer guaranteed, as Ecuador is rapidly investing in peeling and processing, while India is stepping up efforts to expand its presence in Europe.
GSF 2026: Competition shifts from volume to efficiency and value
One of the notable messages from the Global Shrimp Forum 2026 is that global shrimp supply still has considerable room to grow. Ecuador may continue expanding through increased farming area and technology; India retains the capacity to maintain large-scale production; and many other countries are also seeking to restore or expand shrimp farming.
However, higher production no longer automatically translates into greater value or profitability. When supply grows faster than demand, price pressure spreads across farmers, processors and importers. As a result, competition is shifting from the question of “who produces more?” to “who can produce more consistently and efficiently, manage risks better and sell higher-value products?”
This does not mean Vietnam should reduce investment in farming areas. On the contrary, strengthening competitiveness requires production to expand on the basis of lower mortality rates, better disease control, improved seed quality, more effective water and feed management, stronger biosecurity and greater forecasting capabilities. Financial institutions at GSF also emphasized that capital is not only seeking scale, but increasingly looking for stability and reliable data to assess risks.
Alongside farming, Vietnam needs to continue protecting its advantage in advanced processing. At GSF 2026, flexible processing capacity and the ability to meet complex product requirements continued to be viewed as key strengths of Vietnamese shrimp. However, the gap with competitors is narrowing. Product innovation, convenience, consistent quality, traceability and the ability to demonstrate responsible practices across the supply chain will therefore become increasingly important.
With exports reaching US$3.3 billion after eight months, if China maintains its purchasing momentum, Japan, Australia and CPTPP markets sustain their growth, and U.S. exports do not decline significantly further in the fourth quarter, Vietnam’s full-year shrimp exports in 2026 could exceed last year’s level. However, the biggest variables remain actual market absorption, price developments and trade barriers during the final months of the year.
The 2026 outlook shows that competition in the global shrimp market will remain intense as supply from major producing countries continues to expand. Nevertheless, Vietnamese shrimp retains distinct advantages, particularly in advanced processing, flexibility in product specifications, experience in handling complex orders and the ability to serve multiple market segments. In this context, Vietnam’s future shrimp export growth will depend increasingly on leveraging these strengths while improving farming efficiency, strengthening quality control and traceability, and proactively responding to demand in each individual market.