Vietnam’s pangasius export turnover is forecast to reach 1.7 billion USD in 2023

(seafood.vasep.com.vn) By the end of July 2023, Vietnam's pangasius exports had surpassed the 1 billion USD mark, representing a 37% decline compared to the same period in 2022. Projections indicate that for the entirety of 2023, pangasius exports may reach 1.7 billion USD, signaling a 30% reduction compared to the preceding year. These insights were shared by Ms. Le Hang, the Communications Director of VASEP, during her speaking at the International Pangasius Outlook Forum 2023, organized by VASEP on August 24, 2023, as part of the Vietfish Fair 2023 framework.

In the first 7 months of this year, the pangasius farming area reached 3,370 hectares, with output reaching 922 thousand tons. Pangasius exports by the end of July 2023 reached more than 1 billion USD, down 37% compared to the same period in 2022. Pangasius export sales to all markets compared to the same period last year decreased from 9% - 61%.

There are many impacts affecting pangasius exports such as: weak economy, high inflation, large inventories, low demand, reduced import prices, causing demand for pangasius and other seafood products to decline, especially in the main markets  such as US, China, EU. In the first half of 2022, the post-Covid period, many markets imported massively with the expectation of increasing sales for the end of the year. However, the situation in the second half of 2022 did not go as expected, large inventories caused import demand to decrease, leading to a decrease in import prices consequently. The following export shipments have to compete with low price  inventory.

Regarding product structure, by the end of July 2023, Vietnam mainly exported frozen cut fillet pangasius products (HS0304), accounting for 82%, frozen whole pangasius accounting for 16%, the remaining was value added products accounting for 2%.

The main export markets of Vietnamese pangasius are China, US, EU, and Brazil. These markets all recorded negative growth from 16% - 59%, with the US having the deepest decline of 59%.

The average export price in the first 7 months of the year decreased by 12% - 28% compared to the same period last year. The level of decrease is getting larger as the average price remains below 2.5 USD/kg.

Chú thích ảnh

Vietnam mainly exported frozen cut fillet pangasius products (HS0304)

China is expected to be the most promising destination for Vietnam’s pangasius exports after this country fully opened after the Covid pandemic. However, real demand in this market has not increased strongly due to economic difficulties, unemployment, and people's falling income. However, the decline is gradually narrowing. Therefore, we can expect the last months of the year when the economy gradually improves and people have fully adapted to the new context. The average price of pangasius exports to China in the first 7 months of the year decreased by 8% - 14% compared to the same period in 2022, fluctuating at 1.9 - 2.35 USD/kg.

According to statistics from China Customs, by the end of June 2023, China's pangasius import volume decreased by 43% and the value decreased by 51% compared to the same period last year. The top localities consuming the most pangasius in this market are: Guangdong (78 million USD), Shandong (26 million USD), Shanghai (17 million USD), Tianjin (12 million USD), etc.

According to Ms. Le Hang, the US market is not very positive for pangasius exports due to economic fluctuations, high inflation, and high inventory, causing export volume to decrease in 2023. Pangasius export prices to this powerhouse ranged from 2.97 - 3.1 USD/kg, down from 25% - 37% compared to the same period last year.

According to US import statistics, in the first 6 months of this year, the US imported more than 43 thousand tons of pangasius, down 50% compared to the same period in 2022. Vietnam is still the leading pangasius supplier to the US. In addition, the US also imports pangasius from China with about 3.3 thousand tons, accounting for 8%.

Exports to the EU market are also not positive due to inflation and recession. The top 3 import markets of Vietnamese pangasius in the EU are the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany. In particular, the German market has maintained positive growth since the beginning of this year.

In the gloomy picture of pangasius exports, some bright spots for Vietnamese pangasius export include Finland (up 18 times), New Zealand (up 17%), Sweden (up 25%), Germany (up 25%), Singapore (up 25%), and Singapore (up 25%). increased by 1%), UK (increased by 1%).

Chú thích ảnh

In the gloomy picture of pangasius exports, some bright spots for Vietnamese pangasius export include Finland, New Zealand, Sweden, Germany, etc.

In addition, Ms. Le Hang also expects Chinese market demand to recover in the last months of the year and forecasts that export prices in the second half of the year may increase higher than the first half of this year. Vietnam’s total pangasius export turnover is forecasted to reach 1.7 billion USD, down 30% compared to 2022.

Also at the Conference, Mr. Ong Hang Van - Deputy General Director of TG Fishery shared about the current situation of pangasius production and export and some challenges.

According to Mr. Van, from now until the end of the year, the biggest challenge to restore exports is to reduce inventory by reducing the next crop's output. The general goal is to reduce density to avoid diseases, gain weight faster, FCR (feed conversion coefficient in pangasius and shrimp farming) will be low and prices will decrease. Bringing the price of pangasius raw materials back to previous years at 1 USD/kg (currently 1.2 USD/kg), reducing the price by 20% to be able to compete with other types of whitefish in the world. 

Vietnam pangasius industry needs a strategy enhance the image of Vietnamese pangasius in key markets, promote and create a good impression of a fish raised in a clean environment, controlled by the state in accordance with controlling safety, hygiene, and environmental requirements of international certifications, where workers  are guaranteed their rights and good working condition.

Compiled by Thuy Linh 


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SPECIALIST ON
PANGASIUS MARKET

Ms Thu Hang

Email: thuhang@vasep.com.vn

Tel: +84.24.3771.5055 (ext. 214)

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