Just back from visiting pangasius farms in Vietnam, Chris December, president of QVD Aquaculture in Bellevue, Wash., says one of the biggest current issues is the shrinking credit market for seafood suppliers in Vietnam.
“It makes it difficult to keep a business growing when credit is shrinking,” he says. Banks in Vietnam are re-evaluating their portfolios. If credit is limited or cutoff, he says, the immediate impact is that pangasius farmers can’t buy feed for their fish. Farmers either go out of business, he says, or have to find partners who can provide the capital that banks aren’t willing to loan.
While December anticipates some impact on supply, he says it’s difficult to pin down the numbers because farmers are reticent to divulge just how many fish are in the ponds. “We rely on feed sales to predict what will come out of the water,” he says.
Pangasius supplies are plentiful at the moment, with prices averaging around USD 3, CIF, for top quality product (100 percent white with 5 percent glaze). However, importers need to make the most of the situation, because after September and October when the next harvest takes place there will be far fewer ponds to empty and therefore far fewer fish to process.
Pangasius farmers are already closing their operations down. According to a Vietnamese news report, the area dedicated to pangasius farming in the Mekong Delta has shrunk by about 20 percent compared to this time last year. (The fact that there is plenty of pangasius available now is because farmers are panic selling.)
This situation is unsustainable and it is expected that about 50 percent of farmers will give up after harvesting their next lot of fish.
For farmers to stay in business they need VND 25,000 (USD 1.20) for each kilogram of pangasius they sell. This price then has to work its way through the chain and with a fillet yield of 30 percent, plus the cost of processing and freezing. This would mean a selling price for export of USD 3.80 to 4.00 per kilogram, a substantial rise.
If there is no increase in price for farmers, the further reduction in supplies will naturally lead to more processors cutting back on production, or even shutting down completely.
Already only about 50 percent of the seafood companies that were dealing in pangasius last year are still in business, and around another 100 such companies are expected to halt production after the autumn harvest. Plus, agencies that broker pangasius will also be forced stop operating.
Right now farmers are selling their fish in order to pay off the loans they took out to pay for feed and juvenile fish. Bank interest rates are sky high, ranging from 15 percent to a massive 30 percent, and companies are being given no leeway on paying them back.
This is a real worry as costs are continuing to rise. However, it is the steep increase in the price of feed, particularly that produced by foreign-owned feed mills, that is of most concern to farmers. One Vietnamese press report says that feed prices have increased by 40 percent already this year, and as feed accounts for 60 to 70 percent of the farming costs this is a very heavy burden for farmers to bear.
Regardless of what happens to price and its impact on sales in the future, there are already problems with exports to northern Europe where consumers are reining in their spending because of the economic crisis caused by the plight of the euro. As a result, importers in the Netherlands and Germany are reported to be “sitting on huge piles of pangasius” they cannot sell.
There are also problems in other parts of the world. The United States is now the biggest market for pangasius from Vietnam, but there are doubts that opportunities for increasing sales there are as big as was once thought.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Although Germany’s tuna imports have declined, Vietnam’s tuna exports to the market continue to show positive signs. Notably, export value recovered strongly in Q3/2026, and German import data also show Vietnamese products strengthening their position amid competition among suppliers.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Seafood exports are holding double-digit growth, but the opportunities are not spread evenly across product groups and markets. As businesses draw up their plans for 2027, Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS2026) offers a chance to look ahead together: what to sell, where to sell it, and how to prepare for growth in the coming years.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) With less than two weeks to go, the Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS 2026) will officially take place in Can Tho. Under the theme “Seafood Market Outlook 2027–2029 – Opportunities and Potential for Double-Digit Export Growth,” the Summit is organized by VASEP at a time when seafood businesses are facing rapid market shifts, changing buyer demand, trade policy changes and growing competitive pressure all at once.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On October 28, 2026, the China Fisheries & Seafood Expo opened in Qingdao, China. The expo takes place over three days from October 28 to 30, 2026. This is a prestigious specialized seafood exhibition organized annually by Sea Fare Exposition Inc.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first nine months of 2026, Vietnam’s tilapia exports to the CPTPP bloc reached $7 million, marking a 51% year-on-year increase. The bloc rstands as the fourth-largest market for Vietnamese tilapia, trailing Brazil, the US, and Saudi Arabia.
(vasep.com.vn) VASEP has officially announced the program for Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS 2026), featuring five in-depth sessions covering industry outlooks, trade barriers, buyer demand, the domestic market, and solutions to improve productivity and reduce costs across the seafood value chain.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached US$3.7 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 11% year on year. Although growth has been supported by China and several markets within the CPTPP, momentum is slowing as exports to the United States and the European Union decline. Tariff pressures, international competition, and raw material challenges are creating significant hurdles for exporters in the final months of the year.
(vasep.com.vn) Markets are changing faster, buyer requirements are becoming more demanding, and trade barriers are growing increasingly complex. In this environment, seafood businesses need more than an understanding of current market conditions. They need a longer-term perspective to answer a critical question: Where will growth opportunities come from in 2027–2029, and what should businesses do now to prepare? This is one of the key reasons why VASEP is organizing Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the Middle East reached US$113 million, up 7% year on year from the same period in 2025. Growth has become more pronounced in recent months. In August alone, exports to the region totaled US$20 million, an increase of 24%. This indicates that demand for Vietnamese pangasius in the Middle East is gradually recovering after a slowdown in March, although the pace of recovery varies across markets.
(vasep.com.vn) China’s shrimp imports continued to grow strongly in 2026, while Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the market also recorded notable growth. However, behind these positive figures lie two distinct trends: Chinese consumption is growing more slowly than imports, and lobster accounts for a substantial share of Vietnam’s shrimp exports to China, making its product mix significantly different from those of Ecuador and India. Exporters therefore need to assess each segment carefully to understand the opportunities and risks.
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