U.S. importers unsure about pangasius supply

Just back from visiting pangasius farms in Vietnam, Chris December, president of QVD Aquaculture in Bellevue, Wash., says one of the biggest current issues is the shrinking credit market for seafood suppliers in Vietnam. 

“It makes it difficult to keep a business growing when credit is shrinking,” he says. Banks in Vietnam are re-evaluating their portfolios. If credit is limited or cutoff, he says, the immediate impact is that pangasius farmers can’t buy feed for their fish. Farmers either go out of business, he says, or have to find partners who can provide the capital that banks aren’t willing to loan.

While December anticipates some impact on supply, he says it’s difficult to pin down the numbers because farmers are reticent to divulge just how many fish are in the ponds. “We rely on feed sales to predict what will come out of the water,” he says.

Pangasius supplies are plentiful at the moment, with prices averaging around USD 3, CIF, for top quality product (100 percent white with 5 percent glaze). However, importers need to make the most of the situation, because after September and October when the next harvest takes place there will be far fewer ponds to empty and therefore far fewer fish to process.

Pangasius farmers are already closing their operations down. According to a Vietnamese news report, the area dedicated to pangasius farming in the Mekong Delta has shrunk by about 20 percent compared to this time last year. (The fact that there is plenty of pangasius available now is because farmers are panic selling.)

This situation is unsustainable and it is expected that about 50 percent of farmers will give up after harvesting their next lot of fish.

For farmers to stay in business they need VND 25,000 (USD 1.20) for each kilogram of pangasius they sell. This price then has to work its way through the chain and with a fillet yield of 30 percent, plus the cost of processing and freezing. This would mean a selling price for export of USD 3.80 to 4.00 per kilogram, a substantial rise.

If there is no increase in price for farmers, the further reduction in supplies will naturally lead to more processors cutting back on production, or even shutting down completely.

Already only about 50 percent of the seafood companies that were dealing in pangasius last year are still in business, and around another 100 such companies are expected to halt production after the autumn harvest. Plus, agencies that broker pangasius will also be forced stop operating.

Right now farmers are selling their fish in order to pay off the loans they took out to pay for feed and juvenile fish. Bank interest rates are sky high, ranging from 15 percent to a massive 30 percent, and companies are being given no leeway on paying them back.

This is a real worry as costs are continuing to rise. However, it is the steep increase in the price of feed, particularly that produced by foreign-owned feed mills, that is of most concern to farmers. One Vietnamese press report says that feed prices have increased by 40 percent already this year, and as feed accounts for 60 to 70 percent of the farming costs this is a very heavy burden for farmers to bear.

Regardless of what happens to price and its impact on sales in the future, there are already problems with exports to northern Europe where consumers are reining in their spending because of the economic crisis caused by the plight of the euro. As a result, importers in the Netherlands and Germany are reported to be “sitting on huge piles of pangasius” they cannot sell.

There are also problems in other parts of the world. The United States is now the biggest market for pangasius from Vietnam, but there are doubts that opportunities for increasing sales there are as big as was once thought.