Vietnam’s tilapia industry accelerates: From short-term opportunities to long-term strategy

Vietnam tilapia industry: Capturing opportunities, developing strongly

In the first nine months of 2025, Vietnam’s tilapia export turnover reached $57.3 million, a surge of 332% compared to the same period in 2024 ($13.26 million). August alone recorded the highest growth, reaching nearly $10 million - reflecting the agility and responsiveness of Vietnamese enterprises amid significant market volatility. Vietnamese tilapia products have now penetrated in numerous markets, with the United States being the key market, accounting for the largest share of total export value.

However, entering the fourth quarter, growth momentum is expected to moderate due to temporarily high inventories in the U.S following strong imports in Q2 and Q3. This indicates that Vietnam needs to shift from exploiting short-term opportunities to pursuing a long-term strategic pathway - focusing on improving product quality, diversifying markets and building a sustainable Vietnamese tilapia brand.

China and Brazil Lose Ground as High Tariffs Bite

China – the world’s largest tilapia producer (~1.6 million tons/year) – is currently subject a 55% tariff on exports to the United States. The result has been severe: orders have plummeted, numerous contracts have been postponed or cancelled outright. While tilapia prices have edged up slightly, rising production costs are pushing companies into losses, and inventories have reached record levels. Brazil, once expected to replace China as a key supplier, has also faced export disruptions as the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff beginning in August, forcing companies to raise prices and lose competitiveness.

Both countries have pivoted back to their domestic markets to clear stocks, but with limited success. Lower retail prices cannot offset high production costs, and small to medium-sized enterprises — which primarily serve domestic consumers — face intense price competition. Overall, the tilapia industries in China and Brazil are confronting a dual challenge: slowing exports, falling prices, and deteriorating market sentiment.

Turning a short-term windfall into a long-term strategy

The experience of China and Brazil offers a stark lesson: over-reliance on a single market or a single product form leaves any aquaculture sector extremely vulnerable to policy shocks. When U.S. tariffs rose, both nations struggled to redirect shipments or sustain export volumes, resulting in significant loss of market share.

For Vietnam, this is the decisive moment to convert today’s temporary advantage into durable competitive strength. The tilapia sector should proactively diversify export markets — expanding into Europe, the Middle East, and South America — while developing more value-added products such as breaded tilapia, ready-to-cook items, and convenience-packaged portions. Parallel investments in broodstock improvement, farming technology, and advanced processing will boost productivity, reduce costs, and help meet global sustainability standards.

With Rabobank forecasting continued growth in global tilapia supply and consumers increasingly favoring environmentally responsible seafood, Vietnam has a clear opportunity to build a distinct national brand. The goal is no longer just to fill a temporary supply gap — it is to establish Vietnamese tilapia as a strategic, sustainable, high-value supplier for the long term.