Mixed signals from major markets
The U.S remains the leading market, accounting for 37% of total export value with $261 million but declined 5% year-on-year. In September alone, exports fell 17% compared to same month in 2024. The primary reason is U.S. importers front-loading purchases in early 2025 to avoid new retaliatory tariffs, resulting in high inventory levels and intensifying price competition.
In contrast, the EU maintained growth momentum, reaching $160 million (+3%). Some member states showed notable growth: Italy (+19%) and the Netherlands (+37%), while Germany dropped 24%. This indicates Vietnamese firms are gradually adapting to the EU’s sustainability standards and traceability standards.
The CPTPP recorded $96 million (+9%), driven by Japan (+15%) and Canada (+17%), reflecting the positive impact of tariff preferences within the agreement. However, Mexico and Chile saw slight declines.
Notably, Thailand - a major seafood processing hub - increased Vietnamese tuna imports by 83% to $28 million, underscoring Vietnam’s growing role in the regional supply chain for steamed tuna loins used in canned tuna production. Meanwhile, Egypt surged 146%, signaling emerging opportunities in the Middle East and Africa region.
Rising export product value
By product structure, fresh and frozen tuna (HS03) reached $383 million, representing 54% of total value, nearly unchanged from a year earlier. Within this, HS0304 - the flagship category - edged up 2%.
Conversely, processed and canned tuna (HS16) totaled $322 million, down 6%. Notably, canned tuna - accounting for nearly two-thirds of this segments - fell 9%, due to lower domestic raw material availability, increased imports, rising input prices and logistics costs, while selling prices failed to keep pace.
This growth pattern reflects a structural shift: firms are focusing more on high-value-added products such as loins, steak cuts and similar items.
Outlook
Globally, 2025 U.S and European tuna import demand is stabilizing but competition is intensifying. Importers prioritize MSC-certified, IUU-compliant and fully traceability standards. Meanwhile, Japan is increasing imports of frozen tuna for sashimi and premium products, creating opportunities for Vietnamese processors to upgrade processing lines.
Given the slight slowdown in Q3, Vietnam’s 2025 tuna exports are projected at $930 - 950 million, a modest decline from 2024. To sustain growth, enterprises must diversify market - expanding into the Middle East and Africa - while accelerating high-value and certified sustainable products to mitigate trade barrier risks and pricing pressures.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Nearly US$1.7 billion is the projected gap in 2029 between the baseline scenario and a scenario in which Vietnam’s seafood exports grow by 10% annually, according to calculations by VASEP to be presented at Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026. This gap raises a key question for the entire industry: Which markets, products and supply chain improvements will generate the additional growth?
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Although Germany’s tuna imports have declined, Vietnam’s tuna exports to the market continue to show positive signs. Notably, export value recovered strongly in Q3/2026, and German import data also show Vietnamese products strengthening their position amid competition among suppliers.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Seafood exports are holding double-digit growth, but the opportunities are not spread evenly across product groups and markets. As businesses draw up their plans for 2027, Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS2026) offers a chance to look ahead together: what to sell, where to sell it, and how to prepare for growth in the coming years.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) With less than two weeks to go, the Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS 2026) will officially take place in Can Tho. Under the theme “Seafood Market Outlook 2027–2029 – Opportunities and Potential for Double-Digit Export Growth,” the Summit is organized by VASEP at a time when seafood businesses are facing rapid market shifts, changing buyer demand, trade policy changes and growing competitive pressure all at once.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On October 28, 2026, the China Fisheries & Seafood Expo opened in Qingdao, China. The expo takes place over three days from October 28 to 30, 2026. This is a prestigious specialized seafood exhibition organized annually by Sea Fare Exposition Inc.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first nine months of 2026, Vietnam’s tilapia exports to the CPTPP bloc reached $7 million, marking a 51% year-on-year increase. The bloc rstands as the fourth-largest market for Vietnamese tilapia, trailing Brazil, the US, and Saudi Arabia.
(vasep.com.vn) VASEP has officially announced the program for Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS 2026), featuring five in-depth sessions covering industry outlooks, trade barriers, buyer demand, the domestic market, and solutions to improve productivity and reduce costs across the seafood value chain.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached US$3.7 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 11% year on year. Although growth has been supported by China and several markets within the CPTPP, momentum is slowing as exports to the United States and the European Union decline. Tariff pressures, international competition, and raw material challenges are creating significant hurdles for exporters in the final months of the year.
(vasep.com.vn) Markets are changing faster, buyer requirements are becoming more demanding, and trade barriers are growing increasingly complex. In this environment, seafood businesses need more than an understanding of current market conditions. They need a longer-term perspective to answer a critical question: Where will growth opportunities come from in 2027–2029, and what should businesses do now to prepare? This is one of the key reasons why VASEP is organizing Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the Middle East reached US$113 million, up 7% year on year from the same period in 2025. Growth has become more pronounced in recent months. In August alone, exports to the region totaled US$20 million, an increase of 24%. This indicates that demand for Vietnamese pangasius in the Middle East is gradually recovering after a slowdown in March, although the pace of recovery varies across markets.
VASEP - HIỆP HỘI CHẾ BIẾN VÀ XUẤT KHẨU THỦY SẢN VIỆT NAM
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