Mixed signals from major markets
The U.S remains the leading market, accounting for 37% of total export value with $261 million but declined 5% year-on-year. In September alone, exports fell 17% compared to same month in 2024. The primary reason is U.S. importers front-loading purchases in early 2025 to avoid new retaliatory tariffs, resulting in high inventory levels and intensifying price competition.
In contrast, the EU maintained growth momentum, reaching $160 million (+3%). Some member states showed notable growth: Italy (+19%) and the Netherlands (+37%), while Germany dropped 24%. This indicates Vietnamese firms are gradually adapting to the EU’s sustainability standards and traceability standards.
The CPTPP recorded $96 million (+9%), driven by Japan (+15%) and Canada (+17%), reflecting the positive impact of tariff preferences within the agreement. However, Mexico and Chile saw slight declines.
Notably, Thailand - a major seafood processing hub - increased Vietnamese tuna imports by 83% to $28 million, underscoring Vietnam’s growing role in the regional supply chain for steamed tuna loins used in canned tuna production. Meanwhile, Egypt surged 146%, signaling emerging opportunities in the Middle East and Africa region.
Rising export product value
By product structure, fresh and frozen tuna (HS03) reached $383 million, representing 54% of total value, nearly unchanged from a year earlier. Within this, HS0304 - the flagship category - edged up 2%.
Conversely, processed and canned tuna (HS16) totaled $322 million, down 6%. Notably, canned tuna - accounting for nearly two-thirds of this segments - fell 9%, due to lower domestic raw material availability, increased imports, rising input prices and logistics costs, while selling prices failed to keep pace.
This growth pattern reflects a structural shift: firms are focusing more on high-value-added products such as loins, steak cuts and similar items.
Outlook
Globally, 2025 U.S and European tuna import demand is stabilizing but competition is intensifying. Importers prioritize MSC-certified, IUU-compliant and fully traceability standards. Meanwhile, Japan is increasing imports of frozen tuna for sashimi and premium products, creating opportunities for Vietnamese processors to upgrade processing lines.
Given the slight slowdown in Q3, Vietnam’s 2025 tuna exports are projected at $930 - 950 million, a modest decline from 2024. To sustain growth, enterprises must diversify market - expanding into the Middle East and Africa - while accelerating high-value and certified sustainable products to mitigate trade barrier risks and pricing pressures.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the first three months of 2026, Vietnam’s exports of fish cake and surimi reached USD 63 million, down 5% compared to the same period last year. Although total export value declined slightly due to decreases in some key markets, many other destinations continued to post strong growth, opening up room for this convenience-oriented processed segment in the coming quarters.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Favorable weather conditions in the early months of 2026 have brought encouraging signs for fisheries activities in Quang Tri. Output has grown steadily, contributing to improved livelihoods for local residents.
Entering 2026, Vietnam’s seafood industry is facing a period of both high expectations and mounting pressures. Following the positive recovery in 2025, production and export activities in Q1/2026 demonstrated the strong adaptability of Vietnam’s seafood business community amid continued global trade volatility, intensifying international competition, and increasingly stringent compliance requirements in import markets.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first quarter of 2026, Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached USD 1.069 billion, up 17.5% compared to the same period in 2025. This is a positive result amid an uneven global shrimp market recovery, intensifying competition among major suppliers, and continued volatility in the international trade environment. However, this growth does not reflect a broad-based recovery across the entire sector, but rather is driven mainly by strong performance in a few markets and specific product segments—most notably lobster exports to China.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s tuna exports continued to decline in March 2026. Cumulatively, in the first three months of the year, export value reached USD 208 million, down 4% compared to the same period in 2025. The export landscape shows clear divergence across markets: while the U.S. and EU remain challenging, markets such as Russia, the Middle East, Egypt, the Philippines, and Mexico have emerged as growth bright spots.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In Quang Ngai Province, shrimp farming costs are rising sharply due to लगातार increases in feed, fuel, and input material prices, while farm-gate shrimp prices are declining. This has significantly reduced farmers’ profit margins and increased production risks.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s tilapia exports are experiencing impressive growth, reflecting expanding global demand as well as the sector’s development potential. However, behind the strong growth figures lie limitations in production capacity and supply chains, highlighting the need for sustainable development in the coming period.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the Middle East in 2025 and early 2026 have shown notable growth. However, escalating geopolitical tensions in the region have increasingly impacted export activities since March. This situation presents a challenge of balancing market expansion opportunities with rising trade risks.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The Quang Tri Department of Agriculture and Environment has instructed localities to base their stocking schedules on actual conditions in each farming area, while developing plans, allocating resources, and implementing synchronized measures for disease prevention and disaster risk management in aquaculture production.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the first two months of 2026, Vietnam’s exports of fish cakes and surimi exceeded USD 45 million, up 7% compared to the same period in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for this product segment amid recovering demand in many markets.
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