Yet there is little alarm in
"Nobody really knows the bad state bluefin tuna is in," veteran sushi chef Kazuo Nagayama said from his snug, top-end sushi bar in Tokyo's Shimbashi district, a popular area for after-work socializing. "I don't think it'll disappear, but we might not be able to catch any. It's obvious we need to set quotas."
Catching bluefin tuna, called "hon-maguro" here, is a lucrative business. A single full-grown specimen can sell for 2 million yen, or $22,000, at
Fish dealers at Tsukiji market say the number of bluefin sold at early morning auctions has fallen over the past 10 to 15 years, but most are confident the supply will never run out. Sushi bars and supermarkets still readily sell the fish, which is considered a special treat that families might splurge on once every month or two. There's no government campaign to encourage people to rein in their appetites for the iconic Japanese food.
"I have seen some reports on TV about their numbers falling, but I really haven't thought about cutting back on eating hon-maguro," said Sumire Baba, a
A scientific assessment released in January found that Pacific bluefin spawning stocks — a key measure of adults that can reproduce — have plummeted by about three-quarters over the past 15 years to match historic lows last seen in the early 1980s. It estimated that the species has dwindled to just 3.6 percent of its original population, and that more than 90 percent of fish caught were juveniles between the ages of 0 and 3, before they reach reproductive maturity.
The report, compiled by the International Scientific Committee for Tuna and Tuna-like Species in the Northern Pacific and based on data through 2010, received only scant coverage in the Japanese press.
The Yomiuri Shimbun, Japan's largest newspaper, ran a brief story that ignored the drop in numbers and focused on a projection offered by the report's authors that Pacific stocks could triple by 2030 if current "effort limits" were fully enforced — coverage that a senior Fisheries Agency official blasted as "misleading."
News reports earlier this year about the record 155.4 million yen ($1.76 million) auction sale of a Pacific bluefin at the Tsukiji market focused mostly on the exorbitant price and the buyer — the owner of a sushi chain — with little context about the species' falling numbers.
The drop follows similar plunges in the other two bluefin species, the
Without stricter caps, "there is a high likelihood that Pacific bluefin will become less available to Japanese consumers," said Masayuki Komatsu, a former senior Fisheries Agency official.
Overfishing of the Atlantic bluefin, much of it shipped to Japan, got so bad that an export ban was proposed in 2010 at a meeting of the 175-nation Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES). The proposal was rejected, and Atlantic bluefin stocks recovered slightly last year after quotas were imposed, although environmental groups say the population remains fragile.
While the media plays a role, the Fisheries Agency, domestic scientists and fishing industry are mainly responsible for failing to address the problem and keeping the public in the dark, Komatsu and other critics say. During his tenure at the agency until 2005, regulators were often more intent on protecting fishermen than marine resources, he said, and they were also reluctant to publicize information about declining fish stocks or impose catch limits for fear of upsetting fishermen or politicians.
"Government officials don't want to accept the facts," Komatsu said. "Their constituents are fishermen. ... In order to be successful as a government official, you have to listen to the fishermen because they are closely connected to the politicians. It's all very short-sighted."
Toshio Katsukawa, a fisheries professor at
"This is undermining
That may have been a valid criticism in the past, acknowledged Masanori Miyahara, the deputy director-general of the Japan Fisheries Agency. But over the past five or six years "our policy has changed," he said in an interview in his
"Previously, there was almost no control over the bluefin catch because so many fishermen were catching them. The JFA just gave up," Miyahara said. "But now we are in a position of control. We are serious about fishing management."
He noted that limits imposed in 2011 on domestic fishermen using large, encircling "purse seine" nets — which scoop up vast amounts of fish, including many young ones — during the summer spawning season in the Sea of Japan have reduced the catch of juveniles by more than a quarter.
Japan also has joined 2011 "effort limits" — such as limiting the number of vessels — called for by the Western and Central Pacific Fisheries Commission, the regional fisheries body that monitors the western two-thirds of the Pacific Ocean. The commission will meet in
But conservation groups say the measures are full of loopholes and not well enforced, while Japanese fishermen complain that South Korean boats are not similarly constrained.
"We wonder what the point is if others can catch the fish we can't," said Makoto Hotai, head of the Japan Purse Seiners Association, based in the southern city of
While Japanese consumers are very sensitive about food safety and quality, awareness about resource management is still not very prevalent. Major retailer Aeon Co. has a lineup of 50 products with a special blue label from the Marine Stewardship Council, which certifies sustainable marine foods. However, MSC-labeled products account for only 3 percent of Aeon's total fish sales.
"Eating fish is a fundamental part of Japanese culture," said Kozo Ishii, the program director for MSC in
A handful of
He tries to minimize the amount of the fish he uses, but says he needs to have it on hand because customers request it. A single piece of pink "o-toro" fatty tuna goes for 2,000 yen, or $21, at his shop, although customers visiting "conveyor belt" sushi shops can grab much lower quality bluefin for 100 yen, or just over a dollar.
"We're a top-end sushi bar, so we need to have it," said the 71-year-old sushi chef, who has written three books about fish. "If we don't, we can't really do business."
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Although Germany’s tuna imports have declined, Vietnam’s tuna exports to the market continue to show positive signs. Notably, export value recovered strongly in Q3/2026, and German import data also show Vietnamese products strengthening their position amid competition among suppliers.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Seafood exports are holding double-digit growth, but the opportunities are not spread evenly across product groups and markets. As businesses draw up their plans for 2027, Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS2026) offers a chance to look ahead together: what to sell, where to sell it, and how to prepare for growth in the coming years.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) With less than two weeks to go, the Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS 2026) will officially take place in Can Tho. Under the theme “Seafood Market Outlook 2027–2029 – Opportunities and Potential for Double-Digit Export Growth,” the Summit is organized by VASEP at a time when seafood businesses are facing rapid market shifts, changing buyer demand, trade policy changes and growing competitive pressure all at once.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On October 28, 2026, the China Fisheries & Seafood Expo opened in Qingdao, China. The expo takes place over three days from October 28 to 30, 2026. This is a prestigious specialized seafood exhibition organized annually by Sea Fare Exposition Inc.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first nine months of 2026, Vietnam’s tilapia exports to the CPTPP bloc reached $7 million, marking a 51% year-on-year increase. The bloc rstands as the fourth-largest market for Vietnamese tilapia, trailing Brazil, the US, and Saudi Arabia.
(vasep.com.vn) VASEP has officially announced the program for Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS 2026), featuring five in-depth sessions covering industry outlooks, trade barriers, buyer demand, the domestic market, and solutions to improve productivity and reduce costs across the seafood value chain.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached US$3.7 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 11% year on year. Although growth has been supported by China and several markets within the CPTPP, momentum is slowing as exports to the United States and the European Union decline. Tariff pressures, international competition, and raw material challenges are creating significant hurdles for exporters in the final months of the year.
(vasep.com.vn) Markets are changing faster, buyer requirements are becoming more demanding, and trade barriers are growing increasingly complex. In this environment, seafood businesses need more than an understanding of current market conditions. They need a longer-term perspective to answer a critical question: Where will growth opportunities come from in 2027–2029, and what should businesses do now to prepare? This is one of the key reasons why VASEP is organizing Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the Middle East reached US$113 million, up 7% year on year from the same period in 2025. Growth has become more pronounced in recent months. In August alone, exports to the region totaled US$20 million, an increase of 24%. This indicates that demand for Vietnamese pangasius in the Middle East is gradually recovering after a slowdown in March, although the pace of recovery varies across markets.
(vasep.com.vn) China’s shrimp imports continued to grow strongly in 2026, while Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the market also recorded notable growth. However, behind these positive figures lie two distinct trends: Chinese consumption is growing more slowly than imports, and lobster accounts for a substantial share of Vietnam’s shrimp exports to China, making its product mix significantly different from those of Ecuador and India. Exporters therefore need to assess each segment carefully to understand the opportunities and risks.
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