Key single markets: China regains growth momentum
Exports to China & Hong Kong reached USD 73 million in October, up 19% year-on-year. After a slowdown in September, the market has firmly resumed its upward trajectory, confirming a clear rebound in Chinese import demand, especially ahead of the year-end consumption peak.
In contrast, the United States recorded $29 million, down 17% from the same month last year. The Brazilian market reached USD 15 million in October, up 1% - a modest but notable rebound after a decline in September. The United Kingdom continued its sharp decline, with exports dropping to $4 million, down 33% year-on-year.
CPTPP and EU Markets: Growth with clear divergence
The CPTPP region, pangasius exports in the first ten months of 2025 reached $305 million, surging 36% year-on-year and now accounting for 17% of total pangasius exports. By market, Mexico reached $63 million (+1%), Japan hit $39 million (+14%) and Malaysia posted a strong 37% increase, signaling expanding demand in the region.
In the EU, total export value for the first ten months reached $149 million, up a modest 3%. Traditional markets such as the Netherlands and Germany continued to contract, while Spain posted strong 22% growth. This divergence underscores markedly different consumption patterns across EU member states.
Value-added products continue upward trend
During the first 10 months of 2025: frozen pangasius fillets (HS0304): nearly $1.5 billion, up 11% year-on-year. Other frozen/ whole/ dried pangasius (excluding HS0304): $315 million, virtually flat (+0.1%). Processed/ value-added pangasius products: $44 million, up 19%, accounting for 2.4% of total export - a strong potential for value-added items within Vietnam’s pangasius export structure.
After a subdued Q3, October delivered encouraging signs as several major markets began to turn positive, while others remained weighed down by inventories and seasonal import cycles ahead of the holidays.
In Q4/2025, some large markets may continue to weaken as demand has not yet fully recovered. The single most critical catalyst for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 will be the outcome of POR20 in the United States: a confirmed 0% countervailing duty for Vietnamese exporters would significantly boost importer confidence. However, the lingering 20% reciprocal tariff will continue to pressure margins, reinforcing the urgency of market diversification.
The strategic direction for Q4/2025 and 2026 will be expanding exports to CPTPP members (Canada, Mexico, Malaysia, the UK) and the Middle East, where Vietnam benefits from tariff preferences and more favorable market access conditions. The EU is also expected to maintain growth, supported by more flexible technical regulations for farmed products, creating additional room for deeply processed pangasius items.
If Vietnam fully capitalises on these tariff advantages market-shifting opportunities, the pangasius sector stands an excellent chance of sustaining its recovery momentum and achieving durable, long-term growth in 2026.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the first three months of 2026, Vietnam’s exports of fish cake and surimi reached USD 63 million, down 5% compared to the same period last year. Although total export value declined slightly due to decreases in some key markets, many other destinations continued to post strong growth, opening up room for this convenience-oriented processed segment in the coming quarters.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Favorable weather conditions in the early months of 2026 have brought encouraging signs for fisheries activities in Quang Tri. Output has grown steadily, contributing to improved livelihoods for local residents.
Entering 2026, Vietnam’s seafood industry is facing a period of both high expectations and mounting pressures. Following the positive recovery in 2025, production and export activities in Q1/2026 demonstrated the strong adaptability of Vietnam’s seafood business community amid continued global trade volatility, intensifying international competition, and increasingly stringent compliance requirements in import markets.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first quarter of 2026, Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached USD 1.069 billion, up 17.5% compared to the same period in 2025. This is a positive result amid an uneven global shrimp market recovery, intensifying competition among major suppliers, and continued volatility in the international trade environment. However, this growth does not reflect a broad-based recovery across the entire sector, but rather is driven mainly by strong performance in a few markets and specific product segments—most notably lobster exports to China.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s tuna exports continued to decline in March 2026. Cumulatively, in the first three months of the year, export value reached USD 208 million, down 4% compared to the same period in 2025. The export landscape shows clear divergence across markets: while the U.S. and EU remain challenging, markets such as Russia, the Middle East, Egypt, the Philippines, and Mexico have emerged as growth bright spots.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In Quang Ngai Province, shrimp farming costs are rising sharply due to लगातार increases in feed, fuel, and input material prices, while farm-gate shrimp prices are declining. This has significantly reduced farmers’ profit margins and increased production risks.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s tilapia exports are experiencing impressive growth, reflecting expanding global demand as well as the sector’s development potential. However, behind the strong growth figures lie limitations in production capacity and supply chains, highlighting the need for sustainable development in the coming period.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the Middle East in 2025 and early 2026 have shown notable growth. However, escalating geopolitical tensions in the region have increasingly impacted export activities since March. This situation presents a challenge of balancing market expansion opportunities with rising trade risks.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The Quang Tri Department of Agriculture and Environment has instructed localities to base their stocking schedules on actual conditions in each farming area, while developing plans, allocating resources, and implementing synchronized measures for disease prevention and disaster risk management in aquaculture production.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the first two months of 2026, Vietnam’s exports of fish cakes and surimi exceeded USD 45 million, up 7% compared to the same period in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for this product segment amid recovering demand in many markets.
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