Key single markets: China regains growth momentum
Exports to China & Hong Kong reached USD 73 million in October, up 19% year-on-year. After a slowdown in September, the market has firmly resumed its upward trajectory, confirming a clear rebound in Chinese import demand, especially ahead of the year-end consumption peak.
In contrast, the United States recorded $29 million, down 17% from the same month last year. The Brazilian market reached USD 15 million in October, up 1% - a modest but notable rebound after a decline in September. The United Kingdom continued its sharp decline, with exports dropping to $4 million, down 33% year-on-year.
CPTPP and EU Markets: Growth with clear divergence
The CPTPP region, pangasius exports in the first ten months of 2025 reached $305 million, surging 36% year-on-year and now accounting for 17% of total pangasius exports. By market, Mexico reached $63 million (+1%), Japan hit $39 million (+14%) and Malaysia posted a strong 37% increase, signaling expanding demand in the region.
In the EU, total export value for the first ten months reached $149 million, up a modest 3%. Traditional markets such as the Netherlands and Germany continued to contract, while Spain posted strong 22% growth. This divergence underscores markedly different consumption patterns across EU member states.
Value-added products continue upward trend
During the first 10 months of 2025: frozen pangasius fillets (HS0304): nearly $1.5 billion, up 11% year-on-year. Other frozen/ whole/ dried pangasius (excluding HS0304): $315 million, virtually flat (+0.1%). Processed/ value-added pangasius products: $44 million, up 19%, accounting for 2.4% of total export - a strong potential for value-added items within Vietnam’s pangasius export structure.
After a subdued Q3, October delivered encouraging signs as several major markets began to turn positive, while others remained weighed down by inventories and seasonal import cycles ahead of the holidays.
In Q4/2025, some large markets may continue to weaken as demand has not yet fully recovered. The single most critical catalyst for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 will be the outcome of POR20 in the United States: a confirmed 0% countervailing duty for Vietnamese exporters would significantly boost importer confidence. However, the lingering 20% reciprocal tariff will continue to pressure margins, reinforcing the urgency of market diversification.
The strategic direction for Q4/2025 and 2026 will be expanding exports to CPTPP members (Canada, Mexico, Malaysia, the UK) and the Middle East, where Vietnam benefits from tariff preferences and more favorable market access conditions. The EU is also expected to maintain growth, supported by more flexible technical regulations for farmed products, creating additional room for deeply processed pangasius items.
If Vietnam fully capitalises on these tariff advantages market-shifting opportunities, the pangasius sector stands an excellent chance of sustaining its recovery momentum and achieving durable, long-term growth in 2026.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached US$3.7 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 11% year on year. Although growth has been supported by China and several markets within the CPTPP, momentum is slowing as exports to the United States and the European Union decline. Tariff pressures, international competition, and raw material challenges are creating significant hurdles for exporters in the final months of the year.
(vasep.com.vn) Markets are changing faster, buyer requirements are becoming more demanding, and trade barriers are growing increasingly complex. In this environment, seafood businesses need more than an understanding of current market conditions. They need a longer-term perspective to answer a critical question: Where will growth opportunities come from in 2027–2029, and what should businesses do now to prepare? This is one of the key reasons why VASEP is organizing Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the Middle East reached US$113 million, up 7% year on year from the same period in 2025. Growth has become more pronounced in recent months. In August alone, exports to the region totaled US$20 million, an increase of 24%. This indicates that demand for Vietnamese pangasius in the Middle East is gradually recovering after a slowdown in March, although the pace of recovery varies across markets.
(vasep.com.vn) China’s shrimp imports continued to grow strongly in 2026, while Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the market also recorded notable growth. However, behind these positive figures lie two distinct trends: Chinese consumption is growing more slowly than imports, and lobster accounts for a substantial share of Vietnam’s shrimp exports to China, making its product mix significantly different from those of Ecuador and India. Exporters therefore need to assess each segment carefully to understand the opportunities and risks.
(vasep.com.vn) Changing markets, shifting buyer demand, and increasingly complex trade barriers are raising a key question for Vietnam’s seafood industry: Where will the new growth opportunities lie in 2027–2029?
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) As of the end of August 2026, Vietnam’s tilapia exports to the United States reached $21 million, representing a steep 48% year-over-year decline and accounting for 23% of the country's total tilapia export turnover. Frozen fillets accounted for 78% with the remainder consisting of whole frozen tilapia and frozen cuts.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) After a volatile first half of the year, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to Brazil registered robust growth in July and August 2026. In August alone, export turnover reached $19 million, surging 73% compared to the same period in 2025. Cumulatively for the first eight months, total export value reached $124 million, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Besides modifying their boats, many fishermen in Dak Lak province are making efforts to venture out to sea to harvest seafood during the rough sea season.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) At the Responsible Seafood Summit and TCRS Shrimp Summit 2026, organized by the GSA (Global Seafood Alliance) in Bangkok, Thailand, the conversation about the future of the shrimp industry began with one of its most important foundations: seedstock quality.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam’s tuna exports to Lithuania surpassed $14 million, up 8% year on year. While the increase remains modest, it is notable given the continued pressure on Vietnamese tuna exports to the EU as a whole. More importantly, export turnover to Lithuania has shown a clearer recovery in recent months, making the market a destination worth monitoring for Vietnamese businesses in Europe.
VASEP - HIỆP HỘI CHẾ BIẾN VÀ XUẤT KHẨU THỦY SẢN VIỆT NAM
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