Pangasius Exports in October 2025: Positive Growth Momentum Led by China's Recovery

Key single markets: China regains growth momentum

Exports to China & Hong Kong reached USD 73 million in October, up 19% year-on-year. After a slowdown in September, the market has firmly resumed its upward trajectory, confirming a clear rebound in Chinese import demand, especially ahead of the year-end consumption peak.

In contrast, the United States recorded $29 million, down 17% from the same month last year. The Brazilian market reached USD 15 million in October, up 1% - a modest but notable rebound after a decline in September. The United Kingdom continued its sharp decline, with exports dropping to $4 million, down 33% year-on-year.

CPTPP and EU Markets: Growth with clear divergence

The CPTPP region, pangasius exports in the first ten months of 2025 reached $305 million, surging 36% year-on-year and now accounting for 17% of total pangasius exports. By market, Mexico reached $63 million (+1%), Japan hit $39 million (+14%) and Malaysia posted a strong 37% increase, signaling expanding demand in the region.

In the EU, total export value for the first ten months reached $149 million, up a modest 3%. Traditional markets such as the Netherlands and Germany continued to contract, while Spain posted strong 22% growth. This divergence underscores markedly different consumption patterns across EU member states.

Value-added products continue upward trend

During the first 10 months of 2025: frozen pangasius fillets (HS0304): nearly $1.5 billion, up 11% year-on-year. Other frozen/ whole/ dried pangasius (excluding HS0304): $315 million, virtually flat (+0.1%). Processed/ value-added pangasius products: $44 million, up 19%, accounting for 2.4% of total export - a strong potential for value-added items within Vietnam’s pangasius export structure.

After a subdued Q3, October delivered encouraging signs as several major markets began to turn positive, while others remained weighed down by inventories and seasonal import cycles ahead of the holidays.

In Q4/2025, some large markets may continue to weaken as demand has not yet fully recovered. The single most critical catalyst for the remainder of 2025 and into 2026 will be the outcome of POR20 in the United States: a confirmed 0% countervailing duty for Vietnamese exporters would significantly boost importer confidence. However, the lingering 20% reciprocal tariff will continue to pressure margins, reinforcing the urgency of market diversification.

The strategic direction for Q4/2025 and 2026 will be expanding exports to CPTPP members (Canada, Mexico, Malaysia, the UK) and the Middle East, where Vietnam benefits from tariff preferences and more favorable market access conditions. The EU is also expected to maintain growth, supported by more flexible technical regulations for farmed products, creating additional room for deeply processed pangasius items.

If Vietnam fully capitalises on these tariff advantages market-shifting opportunities, the pangasius sector stands an excellent chance of sustaining its recovery momentum and achieving durable, long-term growth in 2026.