Exports to South Korea, Thailand, and Japan decline, while China surges
According to Vietnam Customs, South Korea remained the largest importer of Vietnamese fish cake and surimi in Q1/2026, but export value to this market fell by 21% year-on-year. Exports to Thailand and Japan also declined by 8% and 6%, respectively. These are traditional markets with stable demand, but are currently affected by more cautious consumer spending, intensifying price competition, and tighter import cost controls.
On the other hand, China has emerged as the brightest spot in the first quarter. Exports to this market increased by 17% compared to the same period last year. Several other markets also recorded notable growth, including Taiwan (+92%), the United States (+62%), Lithuania (+28%), Malaysia (+27%), and France (+183%), although their overall volumes remain relatively modest.
Convenience food trends continue to support demand
By market group, ASEAN remained the largest importing region, reaching nearly USD 21 million in Q1, though down 7%. Meanwhile, exports to China & Hong Kong and the EU both increased. This indicates that Vietnam’s fish cake and surimi exports are becoming more diversified, reducing reliance on a few traditional markets.
This trend reflects broader global consumption patterns. As consumers in many countries continue to tighten spending, processed seafood products that are convenient, affordable, and easy to store are gaining an advantage. Fish cake and surimi fit well with this trend, particularly in Asian markets, where demand for processed frozen foods remains relatively strong.
Cautious recovery expected
However, the outlook for this sector in 2026 is not entirely favorable. Price competition remains intense, especially in Northeast Asian markets. In addition, fluctuations in raw material costs, logistics, exchange rates, and rising protectionism in some importing markets are likely to affect the pace of order recovery.
In the short term, Vietnam’s fish cake and surimi exports are expected to continue recovering, albeit gradually. Markets such as China, the EU, Taiwan, and several niche destinations are projected to offer growth potential. Meanwhile, South Korea, Thailand, and Japan will remain important markets, but are unlikely to see strong growth unless consumer demand shows clearer signs of recovery.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s tuna exports sustained their upward trajectory in August 2026, though the pace remained modest at just 2%. The month saw divergent trends across key markets: the US maintained its leading position, Japan and Canada improved, Russia surged and the EU continued to experience a steep downturn. These developments suggest that exporters are entering the final months of the year amid a market environment marked by greater uncertainty.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached $3.3 billion in the first eight months of 2026, up 12% year on year. However, growth momentum is moderating and market divergece is becoming more pronounced, while the US and EU continue to present significant challenges. The latest insights from the Global shrimp forum 2026 (GSF 2026), held in early September, also indicate that the final months of the year will remain highly competitive as global supply continues to expand and buyers place greater emphasis on quality, product specifications, supply consistency and the ability to meet market-specific demand.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s pangasius exports continued to grow in August 2026, bringing total export value in the first eight months of the year to US$1.5 billion, up 10% year-on-year. August exports alone reached US$205 million, up 6%. However, market performance has become increasingly divergent, with China and Brazil posting positive growth while the U.S. continued to record a sharp decline.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s seafood exports reached US$1.14 billion in August 2026, up 6.4% year on year, bringing the total for the first eight months to more than US$8.0 billion, an increase of 11.9%. Monthly export value remained above US$1 billion, but August growth was only around half the rate recorded cumulatively through the first eight months. This indicates that the eight-month result was supported significantly by stronger performance in earlier months, while market conditions are entering a less predictable period.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Pangasius is attracting growing interest from Japanese seafood companies as prices of many traditional whitefish species remain high and supply becomes increasingly volatile. Notably, seafood group Kyokuyo has recently continued to feature pangasius among its priority products, highlighting its competitive pricing and stable supply.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) As Vietnam’s tilapia industry searches for new growth opportunities, venturing into brackish-water aquaculture could unlock a formidable competitive moat. Bypassing the volume-and-price bloodbath against established global heavyweights, Vietnam could differentiate itself through high-quality tilapia products tailored to specific farming conditions and value-added market segments.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) 2026 is rapidly shaping up to be a formidable stress test for Vietnamese pangasius exports to the United States. While exports to alternative markets maintain a resilient growth trajectory, the U.S market has declined significantly. In the first eight months of the year, pangasius exports to the U.S fell by nearly 14% year-on-year, with August alone recording a decline of more than 50%. The trend shows that difficulties in the U.S. market are not driven solely by weak consumer demand, but also by multiple layers of trade barriers that are intensifying simultaneously, particularly additional import tariffs, anti-dumping duties and growing protectionism for the domestic catfish industry.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s pangasius exports to Japan are showing positive signals in 2026, indicating that the market is opening up greater opportunities for pangasius products, particularly processed and value-added products. In the first seven months of 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to Japan reached US$31 million, up 20% year-on-year. In July alone, export value reached approximately US$5 million, up 30%.
On July 22, 2026, the Government issued Decree No. 292/2026/ND-CP detailing certain articles and providing measures for the organization and implementation of the Law on Foreign Trade Management. The Decree takes effect on September 5, 2026, replacing Decree No. 69/2018/ND-CP.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnamese pangasius producer Vinh Hoan has won the top prize at the 2026 Seafood Excellence Asia Awards for its Cured Panga Croquette, highlighting the growing potential of value-added pangasius products in international markets.
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