Seafood exports stay above US$1.1 billion in July: Growth momentum likely to slow as US tariffs begin to “filter through” to orders

More notably, from 24 July, Vietnamese seafood exports to the United States became subject to an additional 12.5% Section 301 tariff. Due to the lag between contract signing and shipment arrivals, the full impact has not yet been reflected in July export figures but is expected to become more evident from August onward and in the fourth quarter.

Shrimp exports reach USD 2.78 billion, but Ecuador is gaining ground in Vietnam’s strongest segment

Shrimp exports totaled more than USD 428 million in July, up 4.5% year-on-year. During the first seven months, exports reached nearly USD 2.78 billion, up 12.6%, accounting for approximately 41% of Vietnam’s total seafood export value.

The 4.5% increase in July was considerably lower than the average growth rate during the first seven months, indicating that shrimp exports are still expanding but no longer maintaining the rapid pace seen earlier in the year. A significant portion of current growth has been driven by lobster exports to China, while whiteleg shrimp and black tiger shrimp are facing increasingly fierce competition in the U.S., EU, and Japanese markets.

The greatest competitive pressure comes from Ecuador. Ecuadorian shrimp production continues to rise sharply, not only for head-on shrimp but also for headless, peeled, and processed products. This represents an important shift, as Ecuador is moving from being a supplier of low-cost raw materials to directly competing with Asian processors in the value-added segment.

In the U.S. market, Vietnam also faces a tariff disadvantage. Under the USTR decision announced on 23 July, Vietnam is subject to a 12.5% Section 301 tariff, while Ecuador, India, Indonesia, and several other competitors face a 10% rate.

Although the 2.5 percentage-point difference may appear modest, it becomes significant for frozen shrimp contracts with thin profit margins. The new tariff is also added on top of MFN duties and any applicable anti-dumping or countervailing duties, depending on the exporting country and company. Consequently, U.S. importers are in a stronger position to request Vietnamese suppliers to lower prices, share tariff costs, or shorten contract terms.

The outlook for shrimp exports during the remainder of the year will depend on three key factors: China's demand for lobsters, Vietnam's ability to retain value-added shrimp orders in Japan and the EU, and the extent to which U.S. buyers shift purchases to Ecuador, India, or Indonesia following the implementation of the new tariffs.

Pangasius exports decline 6.1% in July, but high cod and pollock prices reopen opportunities in the EU

Pangasius exports reached nearly USD 184 million in July, down 6.1% year-on-year. Nevertheless, cumulative exports during the first seven months still amounted to nearly USD 1.3 billion, up 8.8%.

The July decline reflects adjustments by major markets after relatively strong purchasing during the first half of the year. China slowed purchases of certain larger-sized fish, while exports to the United States have yet to recover significantly. As a result, domestic raw fish prices have become increasingly differentiated by size: medium-sized fish suitable for fillet production for the EU market are performing better than larger fish destined mainly for China.

Despite this slowdown, pangasius now faces an important opportunity in the global whitefish market. Prices of Atlantic cod, haddock, and Alaska pollock remain high due to reduced quotas, rising harvesting costs, and continued uncertainty surrounding Russian supplies. As a result, European processors are increasingly considering pangasius and tilapia as alternatives for fish fingers, fish burgers, frozen meal portions, and foodservice applications.

This opportunity does not mean that pangasius will automatically replace cod or pollock. EU buyers continue to require sustainability certification, full traceability, consistent fillet color, and reliable long-term supply programs. Since 10 January 2026, EU importers have been required to use the CATCH system to submit catch certificates and related documentation for imported wild-caught seafood. Information from paper certificates—including product codes, species, fishing vessels, and fishing trips—must be entered accurately.

Although CATCH does not apply directly to farmed pangasius in the same manner, it increases compliance costs and risks for wild-caught whitefish products, creating a relative advantage for pangasius if exporters successfully position it as a substitute. Nevertheless, Vietnamese pangasius continues to be indirectly affected by the seafood sector’s IUU yellow card and the cautious purchasing approach adopted by EU importers.

Pangasius exports could recover in the fourth quarter if exporters secure contracts replacing cod and pollock for the year-end consumption season. Greater growth potential lies in portion-cut, breaded, and ready-to-cook products rather than continuing to rely almost exclusively on frozen fillets.

Tuna exports reach USD 524 million, with growth virtually disappearing after seven months

Tuna exports totaled more than USD 69 million in July, edging down 0.1%, while cumulative exports during the first seven months reached nearly USD 524 million, down 1.4% year-on-year.

The July figures suggest that the strong growth recorded in June was largely temporary. Many shipments were delivered before the new U.S. tariff policy took effect, causing exports in July to return to virtually flat growth.

Tuna is among the seafood sectors facing the strongest double impact in the U.S. market. First, the 12.5% Section 301 tariff is added to existing import duties. Second, the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) requirements have been fully enforced since 1 January 2026 for fisheries that have not been recognized as comparable by the United States.

NOAA has confirmed that Vietnam is among the countries denied comparability recognition for certain fisheries. Products sharing the same country of origin and HTS codes as restricted fisheries must therefore be accompanied by an Admissibility Certification of Origin (COA) demonstrating that the species, fishing area, and harvesting method are not subject to import restrictions.

For tuna, these requirements directly affect both domestically harvested raw materials and imported tuna processed in Vietnam. Exporters must maintain complete traceability of fishing vessels, fishing gear, fishing grounds, harvesting countries, and consistency between the COA and import documentation. Even minor discrepancies in fishery codes, fishing areas, or HTS classifications may result in shipments being detained for inspection.

In the EU, tuna continues to face pressure from the IUU yellow card, the CATCH system, and EVFTA rules of origin. The use of imported raw materials from outside the agreement often prevents products from meeting origin requirements or forces them to rely on tariff-rate quotas. Therefore, although skipjack tuna prices may occasionally improve, any gains from raw material prices are difficult to offset rising compliance costs and tariffs.

Tuna exports are therefore unlikely to experience significant growth during the remainder of the year. Markets such as Russia, Egypt, Israel, the Philippines, and CPTPP members may partially compensate for weaker exports, but they are not yet large enough to replace demand from the U.S. and EU.

Crab exports surge 51%, becoming the fastest-growing seafood category in July

Exports of crabs and other crustaceans exceeded USD 41 million in July, up 51.1%, while cumulative exports reached nearly USD 246 million, increasing 28.7%. Bivalve mollusks generated USD 25.6 million in July, up 21.4%, with seven-month exports surpassing USD 178 million, an increase of 29.5%.

These were the two fastest-growing seafood categories during July. For crabs, the U.S. continued to play a vital role. On 11 May 2026, NOAA reinstated comparability recognition for Vietnam’s swimming crab fishery following an additional review, thereby eliminating the risk of an import ban on products from this fishery.

However, recognition does not eliminate COA requirements for designated HTS codes. Exporters must still demonstrate that shipments are not sourced from restricted fisheries or ineligible raw materials. NOAA may continue updating its lists of HTS codes, fisheries, and fishing areas, meaning documentation risks remain.

Bivalve mollusk exports continued to grow thanks to strong demand from the EU, the United States, and several Asian markets. However, clams and other coastal harvested products are also subject to increasingly stringent requirements regarding harvesting areas, food safety, and traceability.

By contrast, cephalopod exports reached nearly USD 66 million in July, down 1.4%, although cumulative exports still increased 14.6%. The monthly decline suggests that the growth momentum for squid and octopus is beginning to weaken as raw material prices remain high and demand softens in several Asian markets.

Exports to China rise 24.7%, while the EU and South Korea post double-digit declines

China and Hong Kong remained Vietnam’s largest seafood market in July, importing more than USD 267 million, up 24.7% year-on-year. During the first seven months, exports reached nearly USD 1.74 billion, an increase of 34.5%.

Much of the seafood sector’s overall export growth has come from this market. Lobsters, whiteleg shrimp, pangasius, crabs, and several other seafood products have all benefited. Without the additional USD 445 million generated by exports to China and Hong Kong during the first seven months, Vietnam’s overall seafood export performance would have been considerably less positive.

Exports to the United States exceeded USD 159 million in July, up 6.3%, while cumulative exports reached more than USD 1.05 billion, increasing just 0.3%. These figures do not yet fully reflect the impact of the Section 301 tariff because the measure was announced only on 23 July. Its full effects will become more apparent in shipments cleared from late July onward.

Exports to Japan totaled more than USD 144 million in July, rising 3.8%, while cumulative exports increased 2.6%. Exports to CPTPP markets reached more than USD 1.783 billion during the first seven months, up 8.1%, making the bloc one of Vietnam’s most stable export destinations.

In contrast, exports to the EU declined 10.9% in July and 2.7% over the first seven months. South Korea fell 10.8% in July, ASEAN declined 6%, and the Middle East dropped 16%.

The decline in the EU reflects not only weaker demand but also stricter compliance requirements. Since the beginning of 2026, the digitalization of documentation through the CATCH system has increased the risk of customs delays whenever catch certificates, product codes, weights, vessel information, or processing records are inconsistent. CATCH became mandatory for EU importers on 10 January 2026, covering seafood products under HS Chapter 03 and HS Chapters 1604–1605.

Section 301 tariffs will have a more visible impact from August

The scenario of seafood exports exceeding USD 12 billion in 2026 remains achievable following the USD 6.86 billion recorded during the first seven months. However, export growth in the remaining months of the year is expected to slow considerably from the current 11.5% pace. The most immediate challenge comes from the U.S. Section 301 tariff. The 12.5% tariff imposed on Vietnam creates three concrete consequences.

First, new contracts with U.S. buyers are likely to be renegotiated. Importers may request lower FOB prices, tariff-sharing arrangements, or shorter-term agreements.

Second, Vietnam is placed at a competitive disadvantage compared with Ecuador, India, and Indonesia, which face a 10% tariff. This difference is particularly important for whiteleg shrimp, canned tuna, and standard frozen seafood products.

Third, the new tariff is applied on top of MFN duties, anti-dumping duties, and countervailing duties where applicable. Consequently, purchasing decisions will increasingly be made based on individual exporters and specific product lines rather than simple country-to-country comparisons.

On the positive side, Vietnam has introduced regulations prohibiting the import of goods produced with forced labor, effective from early September 2026. This provides a basis for continued dialogue with the United States. However, in the short term, there has been no official indication that the 12.5% Section 301 tariff will be revised in the near future.