Fish Cakes and Surimi Exports Regain Momentum Amid Growing Headwinds

Fish cakes and surimi exports recover in the second quarter

Export performance during the first half of 2026 suggests that fish cakes and surimi have not yet entered a strong growth cycle, but the downturn has eased significantly. Exports declined continuously from February through May, although the rate of decline gradually slowed. In June, export value rebounded by 23% year on year to USD 30 million, marking the strongest monthly performance since the beginning of the year.

The improvement was driven by stronger demand across several major markets in June. Exports to South Korea increased by 31%, Thailand by 45%, China by 17%, Japan by 25%, and Lithuania by 23%. Nevertheless, cumulative figures for the first half still reveal considerable differences among markets.

South Korea remained the largest destination, with exports reaching nearly USD 33.9 million, accounting for almost 23% of total export value despite a 12% decline. Thailand followed closely with USD 33.7 million, down just 1%. Together, these two markets accounted for nearly half of Vietnam's total fish cake and surimi exports, although neither generated sufficient momentum to drive overall growth.

By contrast, exports to China reached USD 23 million, up 12%; Japan recorded USD 16 million, up 10%; Malaysia surged nearly 50% to USD 7 million; and Taiwan increased by 28%. Exports to the EU totaled nearly USD 12 million, up 1%, while shipments to the United States reached nearly USD 6 million, a modest 3% increase.

These figures indicate that demand is gradually shifting toward markets with continued appetite for convenient, processed seafood products that are easy to store and competitively priced. However, Vietnam is not alone in pursuing these opportunities. Supplies of Russian Alaska pollock surimi continue to expand in Northeast Asia. One of Russia's largest fishing companies reported a 9% increase in surimi sales to China during the 2026 "A" fishing season, while continuing to target premium products at Japan and South Korea. As a result, competition in terms of pricing, whiteness, gel strength, and raw material consistency is becoming increasingly intense in Vietnam's key markets.

Section 301 tariffs create new pressure in the U.S. market

Although the United States is not yet a major market for Vietnam's fish cakes and surimi, developments in June deserve close attention. Exports to the U.S. reached USD 1.57 million, nearly 150% higher than a year earlier. This sharp increase may partly reflect importers accelerating shipments ahead of the implementation of new tariff measures under Section 301, which took effect at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on July 24.

Vietnam is subject to an additional 12.5% tariff, alongside several other trading partners, including China, Thailand, Chile, and Norway.

Meanwhile, India, Ecuador, Indonesia, and Malaysia face an additional tariff of only 10%. Although the 2.5-percentage-point difference may appear modest in isolation, it becomes significant when combined with MFN duties, freight costs, cold storage expenses, and other trade-related charges. According to the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the new tariffs apply to most imported goods except for specifically exempted product categories. Preliminary reviews indicate that Vietnam's major seafood exports are generally not included in the broad exemption list, meaning exporters should carefully verify the applicable HTSUS code for each shipment before signing contracts.

For fish cakes and surimi—products that are highly price-sensitive—the additional 12.5% tariff could prompt U.S. importers to reduce orders after the current wave of early shipments, ask suppliers to absorb part of the added costs, or switch to suppliers in countries facing lower tariff rates. Consequently, June's exceptional growth in the U.S. market is unlikely to represent a sustainable trend for the remainder of the year.

Second half of 2026: Opportunities remain, but growth will be selective

In the European Union, seafood importers have been required to use the CATCH electronic system to submit catch certificates and related documentation since 10 January 2026. While digitalization is expected to improve transparency over the long term, inconsistent data entry or incomplete documentation during the transition period could delay customs clearance. Difficulties already encountered in tuna imports serve as an early warning for fish cake and surimi exporters to strengthen documentation management and ensure full traceability from the sourcing stage.

Competitive pressure in the EU is also expected to increase as negotiations on the EU–Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) have been concluded and the agreement moves toward signing and ratification.

Overall, Vietnam's fish cake and surimi exports are likely to perform better in the second half of 2026 than in the first, although broad-based growth is unlikely. China, Japan, Malaysia, and several other Asian markets still offer growth potential. South Korea may gradually recover from a low comparison base, while demand in Thailand will largely depend on processing and re-export activities. Meanwhile, exports to the United States could lose momentum under the new tariff regime, and the EU will continue to tighten documentation requirements while presenting stronger competition from Indonesia.