Divergence in export markets
Although Vietnam’s fish cake and surimi exports maintained strong overall growth through the first 11 months, November’s performance revealed a lack of uniformity across markets. Some destinations have begun to slow due to inventory cycles and softer demand, whereas emerging destinations - most notably the EU, China & Hong Kong - are expanding rapidly.
Exports to South Korea and Thailand remained higher year-on-year for the 11-month period, up 11% and 16%, respectively. However, November saw a year-on-year decline in both markets. This signals short-term order volatility that exporters need to closely monitor, requiring greater flexibility in delivery schedules, pricing and product variety, alongside closer engagement with retail chains.
In contrast, the EU emerged as a standout growth driver, reaching $32 million (a 10% market share) and surging 91% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2025. Notably, Lithuania recorded $29 million, representing a 9% share and a remarkable 108% increase - the strongest growth among major markets.
Alongside the EU, exports to China & Hong Kong also posted robust growth of 46% year-on-year.
Japan followed suit with a significant 19% increase, exceeding $30 million. As a market known for its “high standards and stability”, Japan remains a strategic destination for enterprises with strong capabilities in quality control, production standards and the development of value-added product lines.
Competition intensifies beyond pricing
Competition in the global fish cake and surimi market is increasingly evolving along three main dimensions. First is convenience-oriented products - ready-to-eat and easy-to-use items tailored for retail and the horeca segment. Second is consistent quality and supply stability, enabling longer-term contracts and reducing risks amid market volatility. Third is the standardization of documentation, traceability and technical requirements, particularly for the EU and other high-standard markets.
Looking ahead, the EU, China & Hong Kong are expected to remain key growth engines, supported by strong momentum in 2025. However, requirements regarding standards and documentation (EU), as well as price competition and order pacing (China), will become more stringent. Meanwhile, South Korea and Thailand will maintain their roles as cornerstone markets, though short-term fluctuations may become more pronounced due to inventory levels and seasonality; consequently, enterprises should prepare flexible volume coordination strategies to adapt.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) After a sharp decline in 2025, Vietnam’s tuna exports to Israel are showing positive signs of recovery in the early months of 2026. According to Vietnam Customs data, export turnover to this market grew steadily month by month in Q1/2026, reaching nearly USD 10 million, up 33% compared to the same period in 2025. However, compared to Q1/2024, this level remains significantly lower, indicating that the recovery is still in its early stage following last year’s strong adjustment.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Entering 2026, the U.S. whitefish market has shown complex developments as global cod supply continues to tighten, while the U.S. trade environment becomes less stable. In this context, the U.S. market has had to become more flexible in sourcing alternative whitefish. However, relying heavily on Alaska pollock is not a long-term solution, as it is a strictly managed fishery with quotas and sustainability regulations, limiting any rapid increase in output to offset cod shortages.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Aquaculture, capture fisheries, and seed production activities in Lam Dong in the early months of 2026 continued to show positive signs, with both output and farming area slightly increasing compared to the same period, contributing to maintaining overall industry stability.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) According to Vietnam Customs data, tuna exports in the first month of 2026 reached over USD 75 million, up 13% compared to the same period in 2025. Notably, exports increased in most key markets such as Japan, the EU, and Russia, while exports to the United States fell by 6%—a contrasting development amid ongoing adjustments in U.S. import tariff policies and new compliance requirements under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), which took effect at the beginning of the year.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In March 2026, Vietnam’s tilapia exports recorded strong growth, reaching USD 15 million, up 109% compared to the same period in 2025. Cumulatively, in the first three months of 2026, export value reached USD 38 million, an increase of 174% year-on-year. This result highlights the sector’s robust expansion and reflects rapid growth across multiple markets.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In March 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius export value reached USD 182 million, up 1% compared to the same period in 2025. Cumulatively, exports in the first three months of 2026 totaled USD 514 million, an increase of 17% year-on-year, indicating that the growth momentum is being maintained despite signs of slowdown in some markets during March.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) During peak heat periods, farmers raising pangasius, tilapia, and other freshwater fish in Dong Thap are implementing various technical measures to reduce risks and maintain stable production.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Japan continues to be one of Vietnam’s most important and stable shrimp markets. In recent years, shrimp exports to this market have fluctuated in line with Japan’s broader economic and consumption cycles, yet Japan remains a major, high-value destination with stringent standards.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In 2025, Vietnam’s tuna exports to Spain increased by 13% compared to 2024. This growth trend has continued into the first two months of 2026. According to Vietnam Customs statistics, export turnover to this market reached nearly USD 3 million in January–February 2026, up 101% year-on-year and significantly higher than the same period in 2024. This development indicates that Spain is once again becoming a notable destination for Vietnamese tuna amid strong demand for tuna raw materials and products in Europe.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The 2026 brackish water shrimp farming season in the Mekong Delta has started earlier than usual, mainly driven by positive market signals, as shrimp prices in 2025 remained high and supply was limited. Many enterprises and farms in Cần Thơ, Cà Mau, and Vĩnh Long have proactively stocked early to seize opportunities. By early 2026, stocking areas in many localities had reached a high proportion of planned targets, with intensive and high-tech farming models expanding rapidly.
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