Divergence in export markets
Although Vietnam’s fish cake and surimi exports maintained strong overall growth through the first 11 months, November’s performance revealed a lack of uniformity across markets. Some destinations have begun to slow due to inventory cycles and softer demand, whereas emerging destinations - most notably the EU, China & Hong Kong - are expanding rapidly.
Exports to South Korea and Thailand remained higher year-on-year for the 11-month period, up 11% and 16%, respectively. However, November saw a year-on-year decline in both markets. This signals short-term order volatility that exporters need to closely monitor, requiring greater flexibility in delivery schedules, pricing and product variety, alongside closer engagement with retail chains.
In contrast, the EU emerged as a standout growth driver, reaching $32 million (a 10% market share) and surging 91% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2025. Notably, Lithuania recorded $29 million, representing a 9% share and a remarkable 108% increase - the strongest growth among major markets.
Alongside the EU, exports to China & Hong Kong also posted robust growth of 46% year-on-year.
Japan followed suit with a significant 19% increase, exceeding $30 million. As a market known for its “high standards and stability”, Japan remains a strategic destination for enterprises with strong capabilities in quality control, production standards and the development of value-added product lines.
Competition intensifies beyond pricing
Competition in the global fish cake and surimi market is increasingly evolving along three main dimensions. First is convenience-oriented products - ready-to-eat and easy-to-use items tailored for retail and the horeca segment. Second is consistent quality and supply stability, enabling longer-term contracts and reducing risks amid market volatility. Third is the standardization of documentation, traceability and technical requirements, particularly for the EU and other high-standard markets.
Looking ahead, the EU, China & Hong Kong are expected to remain key growth engines, supported by strong momentum in 2025. However, requirements regarding standards and documentation (EU), as well as price competition and order pacing (China), will become more stringent. Meanwhile, South Korea and Thailand will maintain their roles as cornerstone markets, though short-term fluctuations may become more pronounced due to inventory levels and seasonality; consequently, enterprises should prepare flexible volume coordination strategies to adapt.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Beyond achieving double-digit growth, Vietnam’s fish cake and surimi exports are showing a notable year-end "inflection point": the EU his accelerating with nearly twofold growth, China & Hong Kong are rising sharply, while the largest market, South Korea, signaled a slowdown in November. According to Vietnam Customs data, export turnover of fish cake and surimi reached $327 million in the first 11 months of 2025, up 22% year-on-year; November 2025 alone accounted for $35 million, marking a 5% increase. This serves as a critical foundation for exporters to reassess market structures and competitive intensity while finalizing order strategies for 2026.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Ca Mau, widely regarded as the nation’s “shrimp capital”, continued its strong performance in 2025 as shrimp output reached nearly 600,000 tons, maintaining its position as Vietnam’s leading shrimp-producing locality.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On December 29, 2025, at the 2025 Pangasius Industry Review Conference held in Can Tho City, the Vietnam Pangasius Association announced that fingerling prices have surged to record levels due to acute supply shortages.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) While Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the EU maintained positive growth momentum in 2025, several new regulations related to animal welfare are transitioning from “ethical recommendations” to mandatory requirements, likely reshaping the shrimp supply chain for this market from 2026 onwards.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s seafood exports reached $989.5 million in November 2025, up 64.6% year-on-year. The robust monthly performance played a pivotal role in driving the total export turnover for the first 11 months of 2025 to $10.5 billion, representing a 19% increase compared with the same period in 2024.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s crab exports reached USD 81 million in the first 11 months of 2025, with the United States accounting for more than 82% of total value. While newly imposed reciprocal tariffs and the enforcement of provisions under the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) pose significant challenges for Vietnam, the European Union is emerging as a promising growth market.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The Ca Mau Department of Agriculture and Environment has recently issued a plan to develop specialized crab raw material zones serving official export channels, covering a scale of around 50,000 hectares. This marks a significant shift in the sea crab industry towards professional production aligned with market requirements.
(seafood.vasep.comvn) According to the Tay Ninh Statistics Office, fisheries output in the province fell significantly in November 2025 due to the impact of storms and heavy rainfall, which delayed harvesting activities, particularly for pangasius.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The year 2025 marks the 30th anniversary of the normalization of diplomatic relations between Vietnam and the United States (1995–2025). In parallel with the nation's progress in international economic integration, bilateral seafood trade has followed a remarkably impressive growth trajectory, expanding from an initial scale of just tens of millions of US dollars to nearly $2 billion annually. This growth has positioned the United States as Vietnam’s largest seafood export market for many consecutive years.
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