Vietnam pangasius export to rebound in Q.IV/2012

In the first three quarters of 2012, fish trade abroad totaled US$1.29 billion, down 1.8 percent over the similar period of 2011. Export is expected to get recovery in Q.IV/2012, leading to annual revenue of US$1.8 billion, equal to that of 2011.

In Q.III/2012, raw pangasius priced at VND22,000 – 24,500 per kilogram, increasing by VND3,000 – 4,000 from Q.II/2012. The higher price encouraged fish farmers to keep stocking after a long period of low prices in Q.II.

Between July and September, feed price has risen for three times. It stands currently at around VND12,000 - 14,500 per kilogram, up by nearly 40 percent within three months. The price is expected to keep soaring in the coming time.

Banks have already reduced interest rate to 11 percent for new loans however, credit borrowers were still unable to get loan at this preferential level. Some “healthy” companies with stable operations were not interested in loans in VND with 11 percent interest rate because it was still higher than that of USD credits.

Some companies were not able to get loans because they had high level of product inventory or bad debts or no more assets to prove their ability to pay back loans.

High and stable growth in export to the U.S. and China

During the first nine months of 2012, shipments to the U.S. soared up by 25 percent, other markets still held up their purchase levels. Pangasius exports to the top ten markets of Vietnam pangasius reported revenue of US$1.008 billion, accounting for 78 percent of national export value.

Fish trade with the EU has kept decline of more than 20 percent per month since May 2012. This was because Vietnamese pangasius companies received fewer orders as the results of economic downturn and quiet demand in some EU countries. The weak euro had no sign of recovery. European consumers were turning to Alaska pollock.

Frozen pangasius fillets from Vietnam quoted at EUR2.1 – 2.16 per kilogram in the first two quarters; it kept the similar level in the third quarter.

In contrary to the EU, exports to the U.S increased from 17.2 percent to 21.9 percent in Vietnam in the total export value. In January – September 2012, fish trade with the U.S. reached US$282.9 million, up nearly 25 percent from that in the previous year.

China (include Hong Kong) still kept stable growth rate in import of Vietnam pangasius so far. Trade with these markets showed growth in every month from January to September 2012 and reached total of US$53.1 million, up 38.2 percent from the same period of 2011. In Q.III/2012, pangasius industry generated US$20 million from shipments to the market, up 27 percent from US$15.8 million in Q.II and higher than US$17.3 million in Q.I/2012.

Slowdown in exports to Russia and ASEAN

Between January and September 2012, revenue from pangasius sales to ASEAN countries totaled US$82.6 million, a decline of 1.4 percent from the similar period last year. In Q.III/2012, ASEAN bought US$28.3 million of fish products from Vietnam, higher than US$27 million in Q.II/2012 and US$27.36 million in Q.I/2012. Singapore and the Philippines remained the leading consumers of Vietnam fish in ASEAN.

In Q.III/2012, Russia consumed US$10.8 million of pangasius products from Vietnam. Fish shipments in January – September 2012 were US$32.78 million, down 24.8 percent from the first nine months of 2011, and accounted for a half of Vietnam total revenue from seafood export to Russia. Currently, there has been many Russian buyers asking for fish from Vietnam, but not many Vietnamese companies are able to sell fish as they had no quota to send products to this market.

Enough raw pangasius for processing

Pangasius export to EU is forecasted not to get early recovery in the coming months because the leading consumer of Vietnam fish is still grappling with economic stress.

Both farmers and industrial fish producers will continue to grow fish to supply the processing chain. Processing companies continue to rear fish on an estimated area of 70 – 85 percent of their own fish farms. This helps to produce about 300,000 MT of fish, assuring needs for processing to supply the low demand in some consumer markets.

Revenue from fish sales abroad is able to increase by over 7 percent from US$438.6 million in Q.III to US$470 million in Q.IV. Annual pangasius export value will total nearly US$1.8 billion, a similar level to that in 2011.