Modest Growth, but an Unstable Trend
According to Vietnam Customs data, Vietnam’s tuna exports to Sweden reached more than US$3 million in the first five months of 2026, up around 5% year-on-year. In the same period of 2025, exports had already increased by nearly 29% compared to 2024. Looking at the two-year trend, Sweden still offers a certain amount of room for Vietnamese tuna products.
However, this year’s growth has clearly slowed. This suggests that after a period of relatively rapid expansion last year, the market is entering a phase of adjustment. For a destination such as Sweden, this development is not entirely unexpected. The market is relatively small, with stable but selective demand, meaning growth tends to come in cycles linked to import schedules rather than through prolonged surges.
A Cautious Buying Pattern
The most noteworthy aspect is not the cumulative export value but the monthly fluctuations. Exports surged by 160% in January 2026, then fell by 37% in February, 47% in March, and 62% in April, before rebounding sharply by 382% in May.
Such volatility suggests that Swedish buyers are purchasing according to specific procurement cycles, closely linked to distributor plans and retail inventory levels, rather than maintaining consistent buying patterns throughout the year. Sweden is not a market where demand is declining, but neither is it one showing sustained and predictable growth.
A Small Market That Should Not Be Overlooked
Sweden is not among the largest destinations for Vietnamese tuna. Nevertheless, it remains an important market because it is part of the Nordic region, where buyers typically place high demands on quality, traceability, reliable supply, and compatibility with modern retail systems.
Maintaining a presence in this market is significant not only because of the export value itself but also because it demonstrates that Vietnamese products can gain a foothold in highly selective markets. This is an advantage that should not be underestimated, particularly as competition in the EU increasingly favors suppliers capable of delivering consistent quality and reliable supply.
Competition in Sweden Reflects Competition Across the EU
Vietnamese exporters are not only competing with suppliers selling directly into Sweden. In reality, Sweden is part of the EU’s broader import and distribution network. This means that competition in Sweden also involves competing with suppliers that have already established positions throughout the bloc.
As Nordic buyers become increasingly selective, price is no longer the only determining factor. Supply reliability, consistent quality, the ability to meet specifications, and on-time delivery have become increasingly important. Companies with unstable supply chains or overly diversified product portfolios may therefore find it difficult to maintain their position in this market.
Slow but Steady
For Sweden, the most realistic objective may not be rapid growth but maintaining a steady presence. The market is better suited to well-standardized products with consistent quality that cater to retail and at-home consumption.
If Vietnamese exporters can maintain product quality, align with import cycles, and target the right segments, Sweden can remain an important link in their strategy to strengthen their presence in the Nordic region.
Looking at the first five months of 2026, Vietnamese tuna has not achieved strong growth momentum in Sweden. Yet, in an increasingly selective market, maintaining positive growth is already an encouraging sign. The challenge now is how to turn that presence into a more sustainable market position, rather than relying solely on occasional spikes in demand.
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