Slower demand in the US and EU weighs on overall exports
According to Vietnam Customs data, monthly export performance shows that after posting growth in January, tuna exports slowed from February through May. This trend reflects the current reality of the global tuna market: demand recovery remains uneven, while costs and competitive pressures continue to rise.
The United States remains Vietnam’s largest tuna market, generating more than USD 140 million and accounting for over 38% of total export value. However, exports to the US declined by 14% year-on-year. The EU recorded over USD 74 million in imports from Vietnam, down 19%.
These two markets are large enough that even a modest slowdown can significantly affect the industry's overall performance. More importantly, the decline no longer appears to be short-term but increasingly reflects greater caution among importers.
Rising freight rates add pressure on distant markets
Export statistics suggest weaker demand in the US and EU, but another challenge is emerging rapidly: logistics costs.
Since early May, ocean freight rates have risen sharply across major shipping routes, particularly to North America and Europe. This is a highly sensitive issue for tuna exporters, as most shipments to the US, Canada, and the EU involve long transit times, require reliable vessel schedules, and often depend on cold-chain logistics and precise delivery timelines for processors and importers.
When freight costs rise, the impact extends far beyond a few thousand dollars per container. Higher shipping costs increase export prices, erode profit margins, disrupt delivery schedules, and encourage importers to negotiate more aggressively on prices. For tuna products such as frozen loins, pre-cooked tuna, canned tuna, and value-added retail products, exporters often cannot fully pass these additional costs on to customers, forcing them to absorb much of the burden themselves.
Nearby markets emerge as growth buffers
While the US and EU are creating headwinds, several other markets have become important growth buffers for Vietnam’s tuna exports.
Exports to Russia reached USD 23 million, up 67% year-on-year. Israel increased by more than 21%, Egypt by over 50%, the Philippines by 18%, and the UAE by more than 32%. Exports to the Middle East rose 16.7%, while shipments to CPTPP markets increased 8.8%.
These figures indicate that Vietnam’s tuna industry is no longer entirely dependent on a handful of traditional destinations. Russia, the Middle East, North Africa, and several CPTPP markets are helping sustain export momentum, particularly as companies seek markets with stronger demand and lower logistics pressures than distant destinations.
Although these markets cannot fully replace the US or the EU, they are clearly playing a more important role today than they did a few years ago.
The second half of the year will be about market selection, not just finding orders
At this stage, tuna exporters can no longer focus solely on increasing sales volumes at all costs. A reassessment of market strategy is becoming increasingly important.
For companies heavily dependent on the US, Canada, or the EU, elevated freight costs may continue to weigh on profitability. Meanwhile, exporters able to expand sales to Japan, the Middle East, Russia, Egypt, or selected CPTPP markets may be better positioned to withstand current challenges. This is not because these markets are easier, but because the overall risks related to logistics and operating costs are currently more manageable.
The tuna industry enters a new phase of market selection
The first five months of 2026 suggest that Vietnam’s tuna industry is not facing a sharp downturn, but it is entering a more pronounced period of market selection and adjustment.
Major markets are no longer as accessible as before. Rising ocean freight rates are increasing costs and widening the competitive gap among suppliers. In this environment, companies that continue to pursue a broad, unfocused sales strategy are likely to face greater pressure.
In the second half of 2026, the key question for Vietnam’s tuna industry will not simply be how much it can export, but where it exports, which products it sells, and at what cost.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached $3.3 billion in the first eight months of 2026, up 12% year on year. However, growth momentum is moderating and market divergece is becoming more pronounced, while the US and EU continue to present significant challenges. The latest insights from the Global shrimp forum 2026 (GSF 2026), held in early September, also indicate that the final months of the year will remain highly competitive as global supply continues to expand and buyers place greater emphasis on quality, product specifications, supply consistency and the ability to meet market-specific demand.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s pangasius exports continued to grow in August 2026, bringing total export value in the first eight months of the year to US$1.5 billion, up 10% year-on-year. August exports alone reached US$205 million, up 6%. However, market performance has become increasingly divergent, with China and Brazil posting positive growth while the U.S. continued to record a sharp decline.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s seafood exports reached US$1.14 billion in August 2026, up 6.4% year on year, bringing the total for the first eight months to more than US$8.0 billion, an increase of 11.9%. Monthly export value remained above US$1 billion, but August growth was only around half the rate recorded cumulatively through the first eight months. This indicates that the eight-month result was supported significantly by stronger performance in earlier months, while market conditions are entering a less predictable period.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Pangasius is attracting growing interest from Japanese seafood companies as prices of many traditional whitefish species remain high and supply becomes increasingly volatile. Notably, seafood group Kyokuyo has recently continued to feature pangasius among its priority products, highlighting its competitive pricing and stable supply.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) As Vietnam’s tilapia industry searches for new growth opportunities, venturing into brackish-water aquaculture could unlock a formidable competitive moat. Bypassing the volume-and-price bloodbath against established global heavyweights, Vietnam could differentiate itself through high-quality tilapia products tailored to specific farming conditions and value-added market segments.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) 2026 is rapidly shaping up to be a formidable stress test for Vietnamese pangasius exports to the United States. While exports to alternative markets maintain a resilient growth trajectory, the U.S market has declined significantly. In the first eight months of the year, pangasius exports to the U.S fell by nearly 14% year-on-year, with August alone recording a decline of more than 50%. The trend shows that difficulties in the U.S. market are not driven solely by weak consumer demand, but also by multiple layers of trade barriers that are intensifying simultaneously, particularly additional import tariffs, anti-dumping duties and growing protectionism for the domestic catfish industry.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s pangasius exports to Japan are showing positive signals in 2026, indicating that the market is opening up greater opportunities for pangasius products, particularly processed and value-added products. In the first seven months of 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to Japan reached US$31 million, up 20% year-on-year. In July alone, export value reached approximately US$5 million, up 30%.
On July 22, 2026, the Government issued Decree No. 292/2026/ND-CP detailing certain articles and providing measures for the organization and implementation of the Law on Foreign Trade Management. The Decree takes effect on September 5, 2026, replacing Decree No. 69/2018/ND-CP.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnamese pangasius producer Vinh Hoan has won the top prize at the 2026 Seafood Excellence Asia Awards for its Cured Panga Croquette, highlighting the growing potential of value-added pangasius products in international markets.
(vasep.com.vn) The Global Shrimp Forum (GSF) 2026 is taking place from September 1–3 in Utrecht, the Netherlands, bringing together around 585 delegates from 40 countries, representing approximately 300 companies and organizations across the shrimp supply chain. Representatives from VASEP are attending the event as part of the Vietnamese delegation, strengthening connections with partners across the global shrimp industry.
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