Slower demand in the US and EU weighs on overall exports
According to Vietnam Customs data, monthly export performance shows that after posting growth in January, tuna exports slowed from February through May. This trend reflects the current reality of the global tuna market: demand recovery remains uneven, while costs and competitive pressures continue to rise.
The United States remains Vietnam’s largest tuna market, generating more than USD 140 million and accounting for over 38% of total export value. However, exports to the US declined by 14% year-on-year. The EU recorded over USD 74 million in imports from Vietnam, down 19%.
These two markets are large enough that even a modest slowdown can significantly affect the industry's overall performance. More importantly, the decline no longer appears to be short-term but increasingly reflects greater caution among importers.
Rising freight rates add pressure on distant markets
Export statistics suggest weaker demand in the US and EU, but another challenge is emerging rapidly: logistics costs.
Since early May, ocean freight rates have risen sharply across major shipping routes, particularly to North America and Europe. This is a highly sensitive issue for tuna exporters, as most shipments to the US, Canada, and the EU involve long transit times, require reliable vessel schedules, and often depend on cold-chain logistics and precise delivery timelines for processors and importers.
When freight costs rise, the impact extends far beyond a few thousand dollars per container. Higher shipping costs increase export prices, erode profit margins, disrupt delivery schedules, and encourage importers to negotiate more aggressively on prices. For tuna products such as frozen loins, pre-cooked tuna, canned tuna, and value-added retail products, exporters often cannot fully pass these additional costs on to customers, forcing them to absorb much of the burden themselves.
Nearby markets emerge as growth buffers
While the US and EU are creating headwinds, several other markets have become important growth buffers for Vietnam’s tuna exports.
Exports to Russia reached USD 23 million, up 67% year-on-year. Israel increased by more than 21%, Egypt by over 50%, the Philippines by 18%, and the UAE by more than 32%. Exports to the Middle East rose 16.7%, while shipments to CPTPP markets increased 8.8%.
These figures indicate that Vietnam’s tuna industry is no longer entirely dependent on a handful of traditional destinations. Russia, the Middle East, North Africa, and several CPTPP markets are helping sustain export momentum, particularly as companies seek markets with stronger demand and lower logistics pressures than distant destinations.
Although these markets cannot fully replace the US or the EU, they are clearly playing a more important role today than they did a few years ago.
The second half of the year will be about market selection, not just finding orders
At this stage, tuna exporters can no longer focus solely on increasing sales volumes at all costs. A reassessment of market strategy is becoming increasingly important.
For companies heavily dependent on the US, Canada, or the EU, elevated freight costs may continue to weigh on profitability. Meanwhile, exporters able to expand sales to Japan, the Middle East, Russia, Egypt, or selected CPTPP markets may be better positioned to withstand current challenges. This is not because these markets are easier, but because the overall risks related to logistics and operating costs are currently more manageable.
The tuna industry enters a new phase of market selection
The first five months of 2026 suggest that Vietnam’s tuna industry is not facing a sharp downturn, but it is entering a more pronounced period of market selection and adjustment.
Major markets are no longer as accessible as before. Rising ocean freight rates are increasing costs and widening the competitive gap among suppliers. In this environment, companies that continue to pursue a broad, unfocused sales strategy are likely to face greater pressure.
In the second half of 2026, the key question for Vietnam’s tuna industry will not simply be how much it can export, but where it exports, which products it sells, and at what cost.
(vasep.com.vn) On November 11, 2026, in Can Tho, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) will organize the Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS 2026) under the theme “Seafood Market Outlook 2027–2029: Opportunities and Headroom for Double-Digit Export Growth.”
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Business leader Do Ngoc Tai, General Director of Tai Kim Anh Seafood Processing Joint Stock Company, was honored by the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI) with the title “Outstanding Vietnamese Entrepreneur – Thanh Giong Cup 2026” at a ceremony celebrating Vietnam Entrepreneurs’ Day (October 13). The event took place on the evening of October 11, 2026, at the National Convention Center in Hanoi.
(vasep.com.vn) The global tilapia market is becoming increasingly segmented, not only among producing countries but also by product type and destination market. Supply is divided into groups with distinct competitive advantages: large volumes of whole fish and frozen fillets from Asia, high-value fresh fillets from Latin America, and substantial domestic consumption in several major producing countries.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s tuna exports to the UK grew in the first eight months of 2026, despite signs of slowing import demand in the market. However, sharp fluctuations in orders, competition from major suppliers, and new traceability requirements are creating challenges for Vietnamese exporters.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam is stepping up efforts to combat illegal fishing, protect marine ecosystems, expand digital monitoring, and develop science-based management to ensure the sea can support communities and the economy for generations to come.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The EU remains a critical market for Vietnamese shrimp; however, purchasing demand and import patterns are undergoing notable changes. According to Vietnam Customs data, as of September 15, 2026, Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the EU reached nearly $374 million, down 5% year-over-year and accounting for 10.7% of the country’s total shrimp export value. Meanwhile, the EU’s stotal shrimp imports through July 2026 contracted by 7% in volume, exhibiting divergent trends across Southern Europe, Northwestern Europe and Eastern Europe. These dynamics necessitate that Vietnamese enterprises closely monitor individualized market demand, rather than approaching the EU as a monolithic consumer block.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam’s exports of surimi and fish cakes remained relatively stable year-over-year compared to 2025. Following a contraction in the initial months, export performance demonstrated improvement from June onward, peaking in August. However, the recovery has been uneven, characterized by divergent trends across major markets: robust growth was recorded in China, Japan, Malaysia, the United States, and Taiwan, whereas export volumes to South Korea, Indonesia, and select European markets contracted.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Pangasius remains one of Dong Thap’s key aquaculture species, with the province focusing on developing an integrated value chain covering seed production, commercial farming, deep processing and by-product utilization. The province is promoting high-tech, circular pangasius farming models featuring reduced water exchange and enhanced biosecurity, aiming to improve production efficiency and strengthen control over raw material quality.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s seafood exports in September 2026 are estimated at US$1.135 billion, up 11.9% year-on-year, bringing total exports in the first nine months of the year to US$9.103 billion, up 11.4%. Behind this double-digit growth, however, increasingly divergent market trends are emerging: China–Hong Kong and ASEAN posted strong growth, while the U.S., EU and Japan all recorded declines in September.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first eight months of 2026, Brazil became the largest market for Vietnamese tilapia, with export value reaching US$44 million, up 22,142% year-on-year and accounting for 49% of Vietnam’s total tilapia exports. In August alone, exports to Brazil reached US$4 million. However, behind this remarkable growth is a market that is imposing increasingly stringent requirements on imported supplies.
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