Tuna exports slow as ocean freight rates climb

Slower demand in the US and EU weighs on overall exports

According to Vietnam Customs data, monthly export performance shows that after posting growth in January, tuna exports slowed from February through May. This trend reflects the current reality of the global tuna market: demand recovery remains uneven, while costs and competitive pressures continue to rise.

The United States remains Vietnam’s largest tuna market, generating more than USD 140 million and accounting for over 38% of total export value. However, exports to the US declined by 14% year-on-year. The EU recorded over USD 74 million in imports from Vietnam, down 19%.

These two markets are large enough that even a modest slowdown can significantly affect the industry's overall performance. More importantly, the decline no longer appears to be short-term but increasingly reflects greater caution among importers.

Rising freight rates add pressure on distant markets

Export statistics suggest weaker demand in the US and EU, but another challenge is emerging rapidly: logistics costs.

Since early May, ocean freight rates have risen sharply across major shipping routes, particularly to North America and Europe. This is a highly sensitive issue for tuna exporters, as most shipments to the US, Canada, and the EU involve long transit times, require reliable vessel schedules, and often depend on cold-chain logistics and precise delivery timelines for processors and importers.

When freight costs rise, the impact extends far beyond a few thousand dollars per container. Higher shipping costs increase export prices, erode profit margins, disrupt delivery schedules, and encourage importers to negotiate more aggressively on prices. For tuna products such as frozen loins, pre-cooked tuna, canned tuna, and value-added retail products, exporters often cannot fully pass these additional costs on to customers, forcing them to absorb much of the burden themselves.

Nearby markets emerge as growth buffers

While the US and EU are creating headwinds, several other markets have become important growth buffers for Vietnam’s tuna exports.

Exports to Russia reached USD 23 million, up 67% year-on-year. Israel increased by more than 21%, Egypt by over 50%, the Philippines by 18%, and the UAE by more than 32%. Exports to the Middle East rose 16.7%, while shipments to CPTPP markets increased 8.8%.

These figures indicate that Vietnam’s tuna industry is no longer entirely dependent on a handful of traditional destinations. Russia, the Middle East, North Africa, and several CPTPP markets are helping sustain export momentum, particularly as companies seek markets with stronger demand and lower logistics pressures than distant destinations.

Although these markets cannot fully replace the US or the EU, they are clearly playing a more important role today than they did a few years ago.

The second half of the year will be about market selection, not just finding orders

At this stage, tuna exporters can no longer focus solely on increasing sales volumes at all costs. A reassessment of market strategy is becoming increasingly important.

For companies heavily dependent on the US, Canada, or the EU, elevated freight costs may continue to weigh on profitability. Meanwhile, exporters able to expand sales to Japan, the Middle East, Russia, Egypt, or selected CPTPP markets may be better positioned to withstand current challenges. This is not because these markets are easier, but because the overall risks related to logistics and operating costs are currently more manageable.

The tuna industry enters a new phase of market selection

The first five months of 2026 suggest that Vietnam’s tuna industry is not facing a sharp downturn, but it is entering a more pronounced period of market selection and adjustment.

Major markets are no longer as accessible as before. Rising ocean freight rates are increasing costs and widening the competitive gap among suppliers. In this environment, companies that continue to pursue a broad, unfocused sales strategy are likely to face greater pressure.

In the second half of 2026, the key question for Vietnam’s tuna industry will not simply be how much it can export, but where it exports, which products it sells, and at what cost.