Is the industry over the worst of EMS? Review a year of news coverage

 As shrimp farmers everywhere hold their breath in anticipation of a cure, look back at Undercurrent News‘ coverage of the disease’s development with this timeline of the biggest stories – everything you need to know about EMS.

Early mortality syndrome (EMS) has been damaging aquaculture operations before Undercurrent even began. Though all sorts of diseases have been given the name EMS, it was only relatively recently identified as a bacterial agent strain of vibrio parahaemolitycus.

First appearing in China in 2009, before reaching Vietnam in 2010 and North Borneo in 2011, it really became noticed for its destructive impact in Thailand, from 2012 onwards.

The disease, which affects shrimp younger than 40 days old, and often kills them, was recently estimated by experts to have brought production down around 23% in 2013. This meant a loss of around 1 million metric tons of shrimp which, hypothetically priced at $5 per kilo, meant a loss this year to the industry of around $5 billion.

Shortages have also been driving prices for farmed shrimp up all year, to record highs, as many readers have followed on ourprices portal.

In October 2012 Asian traders were beginning to see shortages in shrimp supply out of Thailand, as well as China and Vietnam. Jim Gulkin, managing director of frozen supplier Siam Canadian Group, told Undercurrent shortages were occurring due to pond overuse, and only made a reference to EMS as causing a bit of a problem.

Talk was of a disease crisis throughout Asia by the GOAL 2012 event, and in December of that year there were rumors EMS had spread from farms in the east of Thailand to the south as well, with fears a drop in production would push prices up in 2013.

In January 2013 managers of Thai farms were discussing the situation on Shrimp News International, which has been and remains a good forum for such talks. Experts based in Thailand expressed concern that ponds were empty, while east Thailand’s largest hatcheries were seeing broodstock die after just 20 or 30 days.

More customers were looking to countries such as Ecuador for their vannamei, as supplies from Thailand dwindled. Ecuadorian shrimp farmer Omarsa saw its sales to China grow dramatically, generating $110 million in turnover in 2012 (with 40% of this coming from China), compared to a turnover of $86m, with only 10% coming from China, in 2011.

By February it was becoming clear that shrimp disease would be the defining feature of the industry in 2013, though exactly how big, or even exactly what, the problem was, was still unclear. It was also apparent that old diseases were once again rearing their heads, only to be labelled EMS in the panic.

Estimates of a fall in production of up to 30% began to emerge, as it seemed each new estimate of how severe the disease’s effects would be was a step up from the last. Solid evidence of the effects could be seen in a 27% drop in Thai shrimp exports to the USduring 2012.

March brought the Boston Seafood Show, and a Global Aquaculture Alliance conference which stated the cause of EMS was just a matter of time. Scientists had been able to transmit the disease between tissue samples, and were working on the belief it was an infectious bacteria.

Prices were climbing as producers feared a bleak quarter for Thai farmers.

In April Mexico closed its borders to all imports of Asian shrimp, insisting the domestic shrimp farming industry would be able to meet the local consumer demand without increasing imports from other countries.

Mexico has nearly 1,400 shrimp farms covering a total area of more than 71,000 hectares. Last year, it harvested nearly 100,000 metric tons, mostly for domestic use.

Soon to follow were the Philippines, which introduced a ban on live shrimp imports in April, while US body the Southern Shrimp Alliance issued a letter expressing its concerns over EMS reaching its shores.

Scientists, including Donald Lighter at the University of Arizona,announced they had identified the pathogen causing EMS in May. Lighter’s team found that EMS is caused by a bacterial agent, which “is transmitted orally, colonizes the shrimp gastrointestinal tract and produces a toxin that causes tissue destruction and dysfunction of the shrimp digestive organ known as the hepatopancreas”, according to GAA.

May also saw Thai firms’ first quarter results show in black and white the extent to which EMS had hurt them, with Thai Union andCP Foods hit hard.

Despite being leveled with duties when importing to the US, India still looked likely to benefit from increased trade given the lack of production out of the US’ largest supplier, Thailand. Some importers also saw the chance to switch sourcing to Indonesia, which was skipped over as the US passed out its duties.

In June it was reported an ‘EMS-like’ disease had been seen in Mexico, with the government doing nothing to alleviate fears by refusing to give out information to other South American countries.

Affects of shrimp disease filtered down to hurt employees, when CP Foods laid off workers due to a raw material shortage, prompting over 2,000 workers to demonstrate.

CP and Thai Union were forced to slash their plans for investment as, half way through 2013, it became clear the whole year’s profits would suffer from shrimp shortages.

In mid-July Mexican shrimp farmers were becoming increasingly anxious for their government to issue a statement, as produce was harvested at half its usual weight for fear of it dying.

In Indonesia though, CP Prima was hoping the benefits granted it by EMS in rival shrimp producers outweighed the risks of contracting the disease itself.

“Since the end of 2012, the EMS pandemic had resulted in a decrease of global shrimp supply. This drives shrimp prices up. We would expect the high shrimp prices to continue until 2013, unless the industry can increase production in the wake of EMS, or the solution to EMS is found and successfully applied in the farms,” said George Basoeki, corporate communications manager for CP Prima.

This decrease in supply and increase in prices put Indonesia in a promising position to supply markets such as the US and Asia, as long as it remained free from disease itself.

Ecuador too was seeing high demand for its shrimp in July, to the extent that buyers were committing to purchasing the South American country’s produce on an open pricing agreement.

In August Rabobank looked ahead to the end of the disease crisis and predicted a spate of mergers and acquisitions, as Asian shrimp producers would look to maximize their margins by processing their own product before exporting to newly-acquired western subsidiaries.

Mexico imposed a 20% duty on imports of Honduran shrimp, sparking panic over livelihoods. A few weeks later scientists were able to confirm Mexico was experiencing EMS.

As raw material prices continued climbing throughout September, with a new record price every week, one top industry figure put the cause down to greed.

“This disease came from God, because we have been too greedy,” said Poj Aramwattananont, president of the Thai Frozen Foods Association, in an article published by the Bangkok Post.

Into October, demand for shrimp was causing all sorts of issues for producers. China was emptying Ecuadorean freezers, whileMexican demand led to unregulated farming in Honduras.

The high prices began reaching end users, with restaurants in the US and UK beginning to pull shrimp from menus, Undercurrentheard.

November revealed dismal third quarter results for almost all Thai shrimp processors, from Thai Union and Seafresh down to smaller players.

A test to detect EMS, used by Donald Lightner and his team, was revealed by Taiwanese company GeneReach – it is expected tobecome commercially available in January 2014.

At the International Coldwater Prawn Forum held in London, US speakers suggested there was room for coldwater shrimp to beat vannamei on price now that it had reached such record high levels. With the coldwater shrimp sector struggling, it remains to be seen if this is a way to take more of the market.

India, at this point looking a very important supplier of vannamei, announced it would enforce a crop holiday from the end of November to early February, in order to prepare for a bumper crop.

At the time of writing, reports of EMS actually being present in India are unconfirmed – experts have said it is presumed only.

In December Lightner and George Chamberlain of the GAA held awebinar, reviewing all that was known about the disease and what was next. Shipping live shrimp around the world was a serious risk of spreading EMS – Indonesia’s strong stance on live imports was likely one reason it had survived this long, they said.

A web portal on which people can share experiences and advice is to be created shortly, they added.

The industry should not expect to see a ‘V-shaped curve’ in terms of recovery, added Chamberlain, but rather a U-shape of gradual rebound. It would be two or three years before production and prices are returning to normal, he warned.