Vietnam's surimi exports in the first half of 2025: Strong growth but lingering risks

This growth reflects the recovery of demand in many major markets, particularly in Asia and CPTPP member countries. At the same time, Vietnamese companies’ strategies of expanding into niche markets and tapping non-traditional markets are proving effective.

Asia continues to play a leading role

South Korea remains the largest market with $42 million in exports, up 26% year-on-year. However, in June, exports to this market fell slightly compared to May, indicating a period of demand adjustment following the strong performance in the first and second quarters.

Thailand recorded $39 million, up 28%, continuing to serve as an ASEAN hub for surimi processing and re-export.

China & Hong Kong achieved the highest growth at 49%, reaching $22 million. This is the result of China imports for processing raw materials due to domestic supply shortages.

CPTPP and Japan see steady recovery

Exports to CPTPP member countries hit nearly $26 million, up 19%, driven by the recovery of orders from Japan (24% growth), Malaysia (6%) and Canada (21%). This is a positive signal showing that tariff preferences under the CPTPP agreement continue to help maintain the competitive advantage of Vietnamese seafood in these markets.

EU market shows strong but uneven growth

Total exports to the EU reached $13 million, up 3%, largely driven by Lithuania ($11 million, up 45%). Some smaller markets saw sudden growth compared to the same period such as Spain (840% growth, under $1 million) and Belgium (156%). Meanwhile, exports to France and Italy are still declining, but the rate of decline is slowing.

The U.S market slows down

Exports to the U.S in the first half of 2025 reached $6 million, up 15% year-on-year. However, in June alone, they fell sharply by 35.4% compared to the previous month. This decline raises concerns that the US may be adjusting its import policies or shifting orders to other suppliers, particularly as countervailing duties and subsidy investigations expand in the seafood sector.

Expanding exports to niche markets

Many small or emerging export markets for Vietnamese fish cakes and surimi are posting triple-digit growth rates, such as the UAE (up 470%), Mauritius (261%) and New Zealand (1,171%). This shows that there is still considerable market potential if businesses focus on products tailored to the preferences of each market.

However, the scale of these markets remains small and insufficient to offset losses if exports to large markets like the US or EU encounter obstacles.

While current growth is positive, Vietnam’s fish cake and surimi exports will face several challenges in the second half of the year. First, price competition from regional rivals such as India, Thailand and China. Secondly, logistics and raw material costs are expected to rise from Q3. Third, changing consumer preferences in developed countries, particularly declining consumption of ready-to-eat frozen products in the US and Europe.

If the current export momentum is maintained and strategies are adjusted flexibly, total fish cake and surimi export revenue in 2025 is forecast to continue growing. However, this is the optimistic scenario, which largely depends on trade policy developments in major markets, especially the US.