The first 11 months of 2025 saw positive growth signals for Vietnam’s crab industry, though the export landscape remains heavily concentrated on the U.S. market. According to Vietnam Customs, total crab export turnover rose 9% year-on-year. The U.S. alone accounted for nearly $67 million, a 15% increase. This overwhelming dominance highlights the U.S. market’s role as the industry’s primary engine, yet it also exposes Vietnamese exporters to "make-or-break" variables in 2026, particularly regarding shifts in U.S. policy and MMPA compliance.
The U.S. Remains the Engine - but Regulatory Risks Are Rising
In November 2025 alone, Vietnam’s crab exports reached nearly USD 10 million, with the U.S. accounting for over 86% of export value - a 17% increase from the previous year.
Strong demand for pasteurized crab meat continues to be the key growth engine, as the market remains heavily dependent on imports. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. has imported approximately 62 million pounds of pasteurized crabmeat annually in recent years. A large share of these imports could be affected if MMPA restrictions are broadly enforced.
MMPA: Import Ban Risk from January 1, 2026 - and a Temporary Pause for Crab
The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has determined that seafood products imported from fisheries that are not deemed “comparably effective” will be prohibited from entering the U.S. starting January 1, 2026.
NOAA has also emphasized the role of the Certification of Admissibility (COA) mechanism. Even if a shipment is not directly subject to a ban, products sharing the same Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) code and country of origin with banned fisheries may be required to provide additional certification proving that they are not associated with prohibited fishing activities from January 1, 2026 onward. This requirement is expected to increase compliance costs and potentially delay customs clearance.
In a recent development, the U.S. Court of International Trade formally issued an order staying litigation between the National Fisheries Institute (NFI), the National Restaurant Association (NRA), several U.S. seafood companies, and the U.S. Government regarding the enforcement of the MMPA.
Under this order, the January 1, 2026 effective date of the import ban on crab products from Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka has been temporarily suspended, pending NOAA/NMFS’s completion of a reassessment of “comparability findings” - that is, an evaluation of whether exporting countries provide marine mammal protection measures comparable to those of the United States.
However, a temporary suspension does not eliminate risk. This period should be viewed as a critical window for exporters to complete documentation, strengthen compliance evidence, and standardize traceability systems.
The EU: A Bright Spot Demanding Higher Standards
While the U.S. dominates, the EU has emerged as a remarkable bright spot, with crab exports reaching nearly USD 3 million in the first 11 months of 2025, a 109% surge. Exports to France and Belgium increased dramatically, posting triple-digit growth of 121% and 952%, respectively.
By contrast, exports to CPTPP markets and China declined during the same period.
Across the global crab market, importers are increasingly prioritizing traceability, sustainability certifications (such as MSC and FIP), and value-added processing. This trend is pushing Vietnamese exporters to adapt more rapidly in terms of production processes, documentation, and compliance systems. Strategically, this shift also offers a pathway for Vietnam’s crab industry to reduce its dependence on policy fluctuations in any single market.
With current growth momentum, Vietnam’s crab exports are expected to maintain an upward trajectory in 2026, provided the U.S. continues to allow imports during NOAA/NMFS’s reassessment period and Vietnam moves swiftly to fully align its compliance framework with MMPA requirements.The EU is expected to remain a vital secondary pillar, though this growth is strictly contingent on meeting the "Green" entry requirements: Traceability – Sustainability – Deep Processing.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The year 2025 marked a pivotal milestone for Vietnam’s seafood industry in its restructuring process toward sustainability, transparency, and higher value creation, amid continued uncertainties in the global economic and trade environment. Prolonged inflation in major economies, the rising trend of trade protectionism, and increasingly stringent requirements related to environmental standards, traceability, and social responsibility have posed significant challenges to seafood production and exports. Nevertheless, overcoming these pressures, Vietnam’s seafood sector has gradually demonstrated its adaptability, maintained growth momentum, and laid an important foundation for the next stage of development.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Amid the increasingly evident impacts of drought and saltwater intrusion, the shrimp-rice production model in Ca Mau province continues to prove itself as a viable direction, contributing to higher farmer incomes, improved soil conditions and the promotion of ecological and sustainable agricultural development.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The management of fishing vessels, monitoring of fishing activities, and handling of violations in the fisheries sector in Lam Dong province have continued to be implemented in a synchronized and stringent manner, contributing to raising awareness of legal compliance among fishermen and aiming to end illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Can Tho’s fishery industry sustained steady growth in 2025 with total aquatic and marine output reaching nearly 783,000 tons, fulfilling 100% of the annual target. Aquaculture, capture fisheries and fishing fleet management were further strengthened, aiming for sustainable development in the coming years.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In 2025, Vietnam’s pangasius export turnover reached nearly USD 2.2 billion, up 8% year-on-year. This result indicates that pangasius exports maintained their growth momentum despite significant volatility in the global market environment. In December 2025, pangasius export value reached USD 200 million, up 10% compared to December 2024. This solid performance in the final month of the year reflects increased import demand for consumption and inventory replenishment in key markets.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In 2025, Vietnam’s tuna exports to Spain experienced significant fluctuations. According to Vietnam Customs, during the first 11 months of 2025, export turnover for the first 11 months of the year edged up by 0.3% year-on-year, reaching nearly $15 million.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Deputy Prime Minister Bui Thanh Son has signed Decision No. 16/QD-TTg, dated January 5, 2026, approving the implementation plan for the Vietnam-Israel Free Trade Agreement (VIFTA). Under the plan, in the coming period, ministries, ministerial-level agencies, government-affiliated entities and People’s Committees of provinces and centrally-run cities must institutionalize and execute tasks focused on the dissemination of information regarding VIFTA and the Israeli market; legislative and institutional development, as well as enhancing competitiveness and human resource growth...
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Beyond achieving double-digit growth, Vietnam’s fish cake and surimi exports are showing a notable year-end "inflection point": the EU his accelerating with nearly twofold growth, China & Hong Kong are rising sharply, while the largest market, South Korea, signaled a slowdown in November. According to Vietnam Customs data, export turnover of fish cake and surimi reached $327 million in the first 11 months of 2025, up 22% year-on-year; November 2025 alone accounted for $35 million, marking a 5% increase. This serves as a critical foundation for exporters to reassess market structures and competitive intensity while finalizing order strategies for 2026.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Ca Mau, widely regarded as the nation’s “shrimp capital”, continued its strong performance in 2025 as shrimp output reached nearly 600,000 tons, maintaining its position as Vietnam’s leading shrimp-producing locality.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On December 29, 2025, at the 2025 Pangasius Industry Review Conference held in Can Tho City, the Vietnam Pangasius Association announced that fingerling prices have surged to record levels due to acute supply shortages.
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