The first 11 months of 2025 saw positive growth signals for Vietnam’s crab industry, though the export landscape remains heavily concentrated on the U.S. market. According to Vietnam Customs, total crab export turnover rose 9% year-on-year. The U.S. alone accounted for nearly $67 million, a 15% increase. This overwhelming dominance highlights the U.S. market’s role as the industry’s primary engine, yet it also exposes Vietnamese exporters to "make-or-break" variables in 2026, particularly regarding shifts in U.S. policy and MMPA compliance.
The U.S. Remains the Engine - but Regulatory Risks Are Rising
In November 2025 alone, Vietnam’s crab exports reached nearly USD 10 million, with the U.S. accounting for over 86% of export value - a 17% increase from the previous year.
Strong demand for pasteurized crab meat continues to be the key growth engine, as the market remains heavily dependent on imports. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. has imported approximately 62 million pounds of pasteurized crabmeat annually in recent years. A large share of these imports could be affected if MMPA restrictions are broadly enforced.
MMPA: Import Ban Risk from January 1, 2026 - and a Temporary Pause for Crab
The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has determined that seafood products imported from fisheries that are not deemed “comparably effective” will be prohibited from entering the U.S. starting January 1, 2026.
NOAA has also emphasized the role of the Certification of Admissibility (COA) mechanism. Even if a shipment is not directly subject to a ban, products sharing the same Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) code and country of origin with banned fisheries may be required to provide additional certification proving that they are not associated with prohibited fishing activities from January 1, 2026 onward. This requirement is expected to increase compliance costs and potentially delay customs clearance.
In a recent development, the U.S. Court of International Trade formally issued an order staying litigation between the National Fisheries Institute (NFI), the National Restaurant Association (NRA), several U.S. seafood companies, and the U.S. Government regarding the enforcement of the MMPA.
Under this order, the January 1, 2026 effective date of the import ban on crab products from Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka has been temporarily suspended, pending NOAA/NMFS’s completion of a reassessment of “comparability findings” - that is, an evaluation of whether exporting countries provide marine mammal protection measures comparable to those of the United States.
However, a temporary suspension does not eliminate risk. This period should be viewed as a critical window for exporters to complete documentation, strengthen compliance evidence, and standardize traceability systems.
The EU: A Bright Spot Demanding Higher Standards
While the U.S. dominates, the EU has emerged as a remarkable bright spot, with crab exports reaching nearly USD 3 million in the first 11 months of 2025, a 109% surge. Exports to France and Belgium increased dramatically, posting triple-digit growth of 121% and 952%, respectively.
By contrast, exports to CPTPP markets and China declined during the same period.
Across the global crab market, importers are increasingly prioritizing traceability, sustainability certifications (such as MSC and FIP), and value-added processing. This trend is pushing Vietnamese exporters to adapt more rapidly in terms of production processes, documentation, and compliance systems. Strategically, this shift also offers a pathway for Vietnam’s crab industry to reduce its dependence on policy fluctuations in any single market.
With current growth momentum, Vietnam’s crab exports are expected to maintain an upward trajectory in 2026, provided the U.S. continues to allow imports during NOAA/NMFS’s reassessment period and Vietnam moves swiftly to fully align its compliance framework with MMPA requirements.The EU is expected to remain a vital secondary pillar, though this growth is strictly contingent on meeting the "Green" entry requirements: Traceability – Sustainability – Deep Processing.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In 2025, Vietnam’s tuna exports to Spain increased by 13% compared to 2024. This growth trend has continued into the first two months of 2026. According to Vietnam Customs statistics, export turnover to this market reached nearly USD 3 million in January–February 2026, up 101% year-on-year and significantly higher than the same period in 2024. This development indicates that Spain is once again becoming a notable destination for Vietnamese tuna amid strong demand for tuna raw materials and products in Europe.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The 2026 brackish water shrimp farming season in the Mekong Delta has started earlier than usual, mainly driven by positive market signals, as shrimp prices in 2025 remained high and supply was limited. Many enterprises and farms in Cần Thơ, Cà Mau, and Vĩnh Long have proactively stocked early to seize opportunities. By early 2026, stocking areas in many localities had reached a high proportion of planned targets, with intensive and high-tech farming models expanding rapidly.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s tilapia exports to the United States recorded remarkable growth in 2025, opening up major opportunities while also presenting considerable challenges. The U.S. remains the largest importer of Vietnamese tilapia fillets, with export turnover reaching USD 40 million—an increase of up to 499% compared to 2024. This impressive growth reflects strong demand in the U.S. market, as supply from competing countries such as China has been constrained by tariffs and rising production costs.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Pangasius remains a strategic export commodity in Vietnam’s seafood sector. Entering 2026, the industry faces a strong need to transition from volume-based growth to a value-driven development model, with a focus on quality, food safety, and sustainability.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Following damage caused by Storm No. 13 in late 2025, brackish water shrimp farming in Gia Lai is being rapidly restored. In key farming areas such as Tuy Phước and Tuy Phước Đông, farmers are focusing on rehabilitating ponds, repairing infrastructure, and treating the environment in preparation for the 2026 crop.
(seafood.vasep.com) Facing the decline in fishery resources, Vietnam is accelerating livelihood transitions for fishermen to reduce fishing pressure and move toward sustainable development. Marine fish stocks have dropped significantly from 4.82 million tons in 2000–2005 to 3.95 million tons in 2016–2020.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp industry is entering a period of strong transformation with the emergence of various high-tech farming models, helping improve productivity and competitiveness. Over the past 5–10 years, farming practices have shifted from traditional methods to intensive and super-intensive systems, featuring lined ponds, environmental sensors, automated feeding, and data management.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) With a focus on sustainable development, high-tech application, and climate change adaptation, An Giang Province aims to maintain its brackish water shrimp production in 2026 at a level equivalent to the previous year. Specifically, output is projected to reach over 155,510 tons, serving both domestic consumption and export processing, thereby sustaining the fisheries sector’s key role in the local economic structure.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the Mekong Delta, key pangasius farming provinces such as An Giang, Dong Thap, and Can Tho are accelerating the transition toward a circular economy model, contributing to higher product value and reduced environmental impact. Instead of focusing solely on farming and processing, the pangasius value chain is increasingly utilizing by-products and waste streams to generate added value.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s scallop exports are entering a phase of impressive growth, as the global market undergoes significant restructuring. In 2025, scallop export value reached nearly USD 66 million, up 49% from USD 44 million in 2024. This upward momentum has continued and accelerated into early 2026, with exports totaling USD 18.1 million in the first two months alone—an increase of 166% year-on-year. This represents an exceptionally high growth rate, reflecting the rapid expansion of a relatively new product segment within Vietnam’s mollusk export portfolio.
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