The first 11 months of 2025 saw positive growth signals for Vietnam’s crab industry, though the export landscape remains heavily concentrated on the U.S. market. According to Vietnam Customs, total crab export turnover rose 9% year-on-year. The U.S. alone accounted for nearly $67 million, a 15% increase. This overwhelming dominance highlights the U.S. market’s role as the industry’s primary engine, yet it also exposes Vietnamese exporters to "make-or-break" variables in 2026, particularly regarding shifts in U.S. policy and MMPA compliance.
The U.S. Remains the Engine - but Regulatory Risks Are Rising
In November 2025 alone, Vietnam’s crab exports reached nearly USD 10 million, with the U.S. accounting for over 86% of export value - a 17% increase from the previous year.
Strong demand for pasteurized crab meat continues to be the key growth engine, as the market remains heavily dependent on imports. According to data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. has imported approximately 62 million pounds of pasteurized crabmeat annually in recent years. A large share of these imports could be affected if MMPA restrictions are broadly enforced.
MMPA: Import Ban Risk from January 1, 2026 - and a Temporary Pause for Crab
The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) under the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has determined that seafood products imported from fisheries that are not deemed “comparably effective” will be prohibited from entering the U.S. starting January 1, 2026.
NOAA has also emphasized the role of the Certification of Admissibility (COA) mechanism. Even if a shipment is not directly subject to a ban, products sharing the same Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) code and country of origin with banned fisheries may be required to provide additional certification proving that they are not associated with prohibited fishing activities from January 1, 2026 onward. This requirement is expected to increase compliance costs and potentially delay customs clearance.
In a recent development, the U.S. Court of International Trade formally issued an order staying litigation between the National Fisheries Institute (NFI), the National Restaurant Association (NRA), several U.S. seafood companies, and the U.S. Government regarding the enforcement of the MMPA.
Under this order, the January 1, 2026 effective date of the import ban on crab products from Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka has been temporarily suspended, pending NOAA/NMFS’s completion of a reassessment of “comparability findings” - that is, an evaluation of whether exporting countries provide marine mammal protection measures comparable to those of the United States.
However, a temporary suspension does not eliminate risk. This period should be viewed as a critical window for exporters to complete documentation, strengthen compliance evidence, and standardize traceability systems.
The EU: A Bright Spot Demanding Higher Standards
While the U.S. dominates, the EU has emerged as a remarkable bright spot, with crab exports reaching nearly USD 3 million in the first 11 months of 2025, a 109% surge. Exports to France and Belgium increased dramatically, posting triple-digit growth of 121% and 952%, respectively.
By contrast, exports to CPTPP markets and China declined during the same period.
Across the global crab market, importers are increasingly prioritizing traceability, sustainability certifications (such as MSC and FIP), and value-added processing. This trend is pushing Vietnamese exporters to adapt more rapidly in terms of production processes, documentation, and compliance systems. Strategically, this shift also offers a pathway for Vietnam’s crab industry to reduce its dependence on policy fluctuations in any single market.
With current growth momentum, Vietnam’s crab exports are expected to maintain an upward trajectory in 2026, provided the U.S. continues to allow imports during NOAA/NMFS’s reassessment period and Vietnam moves swiftly to fully align its compliance framework with MMPA requirements.The EU is expected to remain a vital secondary pillar, though this growth is strictly contingent on meeting the "Green" entry requirements: Traceability – Sustainability – Deep Processing.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On March 10, 2026, the Ho Chi Minh City People’s Committee issued Decision No. 1377/QD-UBND approving the Aquatic Animal Disease Prevention and Control Plan for the 2026–2030 period. The decision takes effect from the date of signing and replaces previous plans for the 2021–2030 period that had been issued prior to the administrative merger in Ba Ria – Vung Tau, Binh Duong, and Ho Chi Minh City.
(vasep.com.vn) In 2025, Chile imported more than USD 156 million worth of tuna, up 8.1% compared to the previous year and the highest level in the past five years. As the supply structure in this market is rapidly shifting, Vietnamese tuna is facing both opportunities to expand market share and increasing competitive pressure from Thailand, Colombia, and China.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vinh Long Province is stepping up efforts to develop brackish water shrimp farming in a sustainable direction, identifying it as a key sector in its agricultural structure. In 2026, the province aims to reach around 71,300 hectares of shrimp farming, with an output of over 314,000 tons.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Ha Tinh Province is strengthening control over shrimp seed quality to minimize risks for the 2026 spring–summer farming season.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In February 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports reached USD 119 million, down slightly 5% year-on-year. However, thanks to strong performance in January, cumulative exports in the first two months of the year still reached USD 331 million, up 28% compared to the same period in 2025. Export activity slowed somewhat in February due to seasonal factors, particularly the Lunar New Year holiday, which disrupted production and shipments at many seafood processing enterprises.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Da Nang is accelerating the development of high-tech shrimp farming toward intensive production, disease control, and improved efficiency. Many shrimp farms have invested in automated environmental monitoring systems, continuously tracking indicators such as pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity, enabling farmers to promptly adjust pond conditions and reduce disease risks.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The year 2025 is considered a turning point for Vietnam’s shrimp seed industry as the sector faces the need for strong transformation in technology, production management, and gradual self-sufficiency in broodstock supply. These factors are seen as key to improving seed quality and strengthening the competitiveness of the shrimp industry amid increasingly demanding market requirements.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In February 2026, Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached nearly USD 310 million, up 17% year-on-year. Cumulatively for the first two months of the year, shrimp export value totaled USD 690 million, an increase of 20% compared with the same period last year. Compared with the 22% growth recorded in January, the pace of increase in February slowed somewhat, reflecting seasonal factors as the Lunar New Year holiday partially disrupted processing and shipment activities. Nevertheless, the nearly 20% growth in the first two months indicates that shrimp orders from Vietnam are maintaining a more positive trend than in the same period last year.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) According to the latest statistics for January 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius export value to major market blocs recorded encouraging growth compared with the same period last year, indicating that consumption demand is gradually recovering.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s seafood exports in February 2026 reached approximately USD 707 million, up 8% compared to the same period last year. Cumulatively, exports in the first two months of 2026 totaled USD 1.7 billion, an increase of 20.2% year-on-year. The results show that the sector’s recovery momentum has remained relatively solid following strong growth in January, although the pace slowed noticeably in February for several key products and major markets. Within the overall picture, shrimp continues to be the largest pillar, pangasius rebounds strongly, while tuna exports and the U.S. and Korean markets are sending signals that warrant closer monitoring. In March, seafood exports are expected to gain additional momentum from markets other than the U.S., potentially supporting stronger growth.
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