Shrimp exports in january 2026: strong start to the year, market sentiment stabilizes after POR19

Growth momentum was mainly driven by China and Japan—two markets that recorded strong demand ahead of the Lunar New Year. China remained the largest market with export value reaching USD 129.6 million, up 15% year-on-year. Japan posted USD 44.8 million, an increase of 31%. Stockpiling for holiday consumption and improving purchasing power in the region helped exporters maintain solid shipment volumes from the beginning of the year.

Meanwhile, exports to the United States totaled USD 43.8 million, up 22% year-on-year but slightly down compared to December 2025. This indicates that while demand in the U.S. remains steady, it has yet to create a significant breakthrough in overall export value.

Product structure: whiteleg shrimp continues to lead

Whiteleg shrimp remained the key growth driver with USD 216.9 million, accounting for 57.1% of total export value and rising 31% year-on-year. Both processed and frozen raw shrimp segments posted solid growth, reflecting relatively balanced demand across raw material and value-added categories.

Black tiger shrimp reached USD 29.2 million, up 34%, though its share remains modest. This suggests that current growth still largely depends on whiteleg shrimp—a product that is more sensitive to price fluctuations and trade policy changes in major markets.

U.S. market: more stable after POR19, new tariffs yet to show immediate impact

A key issue closely monitored by businesses in February was the final result of the anti-dumping duty review (POR19), which has just been announced. The outcome was generally less unfavorable than previously feared, significantly easing psychological pressure on exporters and U.S. importers. The absence of a sharp tariff increase provides a relatively stable foundation for ongoing and negotiated orders.

At the same time, on February 23, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that tariffs imposed under the IEEPA were unlawful. From 00:01 on February 24, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officially stopped collecting these retaliatory tariffs. However, the U.S. simultaneously implemented a global 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, effective for a maximum of 150 days and applied in addition to existing duties.

As the 10% tariff only took effect from February 24, 2026, its actual impact on export turnover in February is expected to be limited and may become clearer from March onward. In the short term, seasonal factors and the final POR19 results remain the primary variables influencing transactions.

In terms of market position, the U.S. currently ranks behind several Asian markets in import value of Vietnamese shrimp. Nevertheless, it remains a price-setting and sentiment-influencing market. With the more favorable-than-expected POR19 outcome, short-term risks have been partially contained, although the 10% global tariff remains a factor to monitor in Q2/2026.

Outlook for february and beyond: Asia as the growth pillar

Shrimp exports in February 2026 may slow due mainly to seasonal factors, as the Lunar New Year holiday disrupted production and shipments. The high base in January also makes it difficult to sustain a similar growth rate.

Under current conditions, Vietnam’s shrimp industry is increasingly relying on Asian markets, particularly China and Japan, as key growth drivers. If demand in the region remains stable after the holiday period, it will serve as an important pillar for Q1/2026 performance.

For the U.S. market, the medium-term outlook depends on two factors: the actual implementation of the 10% global tariff during its 150-day period and potential policy adjustments afterward. While the POR19 result helped the market avoid a new shock, the trade environment still requires businesses to proactively review pricing structures, control costs, and closely monitor U.S. regulatory guidance.

Overall, January 2026 opened on a positive note for Vietnam’s shrimp industry. However, sustaining growth in the coming months will require enterprises to remain flexible in adapting to policy changes while capitalizing more effectively on opportunities in Asian markets, which are playing an increasingly significant role in Vietnam’s shrimp export structure.