Vietnam’s seafood exports slow in May amid U.S. tariff pressure

U.S. tariffs prompt short-term shipment shifts

Since April 2025, following the U.S. government’s announcement of a temporary 10% tariff on a wide range of imports from Vietnam — including seafood — exporters have scrambled to adjust. Companies accelerated shipments to the U.S. in April and early May to mitigate the risk of being hit with higher duties — potentially up to 46% — once the 90-day temporary tariff window ends on July 9.

As a result, exports to the U.S. in May still rose 9.7% year-on-year to nearly USD 160 million. However, several exporters noted that shipments slowed significantly after May 20 as they adopted a more cautious approach. Rising costs, policy uncertainty, and market volatility have collectively dampened trading activity and weighed on the month’s overall export figures.

Shrimp leads growth, while pangasius and tuna struggle

Shrimp remained a standout performer, with May exports rising 12.4% to USD 363 million — accounting for over 42% of the total value. For the January–May period, shrimp exports exceeded USD 1.66 billion, up 28.3%, driven by robust demand from the U.S., Japan, and CPTPP markets.

In contrast, pangasius (tra fish) exports plunged 17.3% in May to USD 138 million — the steepest drop among major seafood categories. Exporters have temporarily scaled back U.S.-bound shipments, aiming to avoid potential tariff hikes and restructure their market strategies. Companies like Caseamex are increasingly shifting focus to the EU and Asian markets, which are technically demanding but carry lower trade risks.

Tuna exports also fell sharply, down 23.2% in May to USD 65 million, amid rising logistics costs and intensified competition from Latin American suppliers.

Market diversification: A key strategy amid trade tensions

In response to U.S. trade policy uncertainty, many Vietnamese seafood enterprises have pivoted toward market diversification and value-added processing. Exports to CPTPP markets such as Japan, Canada, and Mexico continued to rise, reaching USD 224 million in May (up 7.9%) and over USD 1.15 billion in the first five months (up 24.3%).

China and Hong Kong also recorded impressive growth, with May exports nearing USD 185 million and five-month value exceeding USD 900 million — increases of 22.3% and 48.6%, respectively. These gains reflect both Vietnam’s efforts to restructure export markets and strong demand for products that meet regional preferences in taste, pricing, and supply chain flexibility.

Many companies are also investing in deeply processed products — such as fish balls, marinated fillets, canned fish, and collagen derived from by-products — to tap into niche markets and meet rising demand for convenient food options, especially in major Asian urban centers.

Outlook and recommendations

Between now and July — when the U.S. is expected to finalize its tariff rates on certain Vietnamese goods — exporters will likely remain cautious in their U.S. strategies. Businesses must carefully time shipments to avoid tax exposure while retaining key customers. If the 10% tariff remains in place, exports may hold steady. However, if the 46% rate is enacted, a sharp decline in U.S.-bound exports is likely, forcing a more aggressive restructuring of market priorities.

In the long term, the industry must fully leverage free trade agreements (FTAs) such as CPTPP, EVFTA, and UKVFTA to diversify its export portfolio. Key structural improvements — including logistics cost reduction, infrastructure upgrades, and enhanced compliance with international standards — will also be crucial. Government support in the form of credit policies, sustainable farming programs, and investment in processing capacity will help improve overall competitiveness and long-term growth.