Shrimp exports to the US and China remained positive in the last 2 months of this year

Low market demand, inflation, high inventory, customers tightening spending, conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East are factors that negatively affect Vietnam's shrimp expors and global shrimp exports this year. In addition, raw material prices and export prices have both decreased, increasing challenges for both farmers and processing enterprises. Since the end of the third quarter, domestic raw shrimp prices have shown signs of increasing. This is good news for farmers, but the price increase is due to the impact of domestic supply and demand and does not reflect much from consumer markets. 

In October 2023, shrimp exports recorded positive growth in markets such as the US, Canada, Belgium, Taiwan, and Switzerland. Small markets such as Taiwan and Switzerland are evaluated well as exports to these two markets grew positively by 21% and 11% respectively in the first 10 months of this year. 

The US continues to be Vietnam's largest shrimp import market, accounting for 21% of Vietnam's total shrimp exports. Since July, shrimp exports to the US have recorded positive double-digit growth, continuously until October. However, accumulated shrimp exports to the US in the first 10 months of this year still decreased by 20% to 589 million USD due to sharp decline in the first months of this year. The US is the only market among Vietnam's main shrimp import markets to record a continuously positive growth for 4 months. 

The US shrimp import data from other suppliers also recorded positive results in the third quarter of this year. According to data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the US imported 70,727 tons of shrimp in September, worth 578.4 million USD, up 9% in volume, down 2% in value compared to the same period last year (65,122 tons, 593.5 million USD). This is the third consecutive month that the US recorded shrimp import growth after 13 months of decline. Although the average price only reached 8.19 USD/kg, down 10% compared to the same period in 2022 (9.11 USD/kg), the decrease gap has gradually narrowed over the months. 

In the first 3 quarters of the year, the US imported 575,538 tons of shrimp, worth 4.7 billion USD, down 11% in volume and 22% in value compared to the same period last year. The average export price of the first 9 months of the year reached 8.25 USD/kg, down 12% over the same period. 

India is still the top shrimp supplier to the US. In the first 9 months of the year, India exported 215,305 tons of shrimp to the US, worth 1.7 billion USD, down 7% in volume and 20% in value. 

Ecuador made new progress in September when it exported 18,504 tons of shrimp to the US, worth 125.9 million USD, an increase of 22% in volume and 8% in value over the same period last year. In the first 9 months of 2023, Ecuador's shrimp exports to the US (154,406 tons) were almost unchanged compared to the same period last year, only less than 1% in volume, but down 11% in value. 

In contrast to the main shrimp suppliers to the US, Indonesia seems to have missed a beat when exported shrimp volume to the US in September decreased by 9%, down 20% in value. Previously, Indonesia had lost its position as a 2nd major shrimp supplier to the US to Ecuador. In the first 9 months of the year, Indonesia exported 107,068 tons of shrimp to the US, worth 872.4 million USD, down 17% in volume and 29% in value compared to the same period last year. 

Inventories are decreasing, US economic indicators are gradually improving, demand is higher in the end of the year, it is expected that in the last 2 months of this year, Vietnam’s shrimp exports to this market will still record growth. 

Vietnam's shrimp exports to China & Hong Kong in October 2023 reached 63 million USD, down 2% over the same period. In the first 10 months of 2023, exports to this market grew for 3 consecutive months from June - August, then decreased in September and October. However, the decline was not strong like the first months of the year. China & Hong Kong is the market with the lowest decline among the main import markets, at 5%, reaching 517 million USD in the 10 months of 2023. 

The demand for Vietnamese shrimp from the Chinese and HK markets not only depends on economic growth and inventory but also depends on supply from Ecuador. Meanwhile, Ecuador's shrimp exports to China are tending to slow down due to a sharp decline in export prices. This can benefit Vietnam's shrimp exports to China & Hong Kong in the last 2 months of this year to regain positive growth momentum. According to ITC data, China's shrimp imports in the first 9 months of this year reached 5.7 billion USD, up 3% over the same period. 

Vietnam's shrimp exports in the last 2 months of this year have not yet been able to recover positive growth, although the decline will be narrower compared to previous months.