In the first two months of 2023, Vietnam's pangasius exports decreased in both value and volume, with a decrease of 48% and 35% year-on-year, respectively. This downward trend is mainly due to the sudden drop in import demand, especially the US. The average selling price decreased by 14% over the same period in 2022 and by 50% from the peak set in the second quarter of 2022.
Enterprises that rely heavily on the US market such as Vinh Hoan and BIEN DONG Seafood have the largest decrease in export value in the first two months of the year, with -48% and -75% respectively over the same period in 2022.
In contrast, companies with a large distribution market share in China such as Navico, IDI, Godaco can take advantage of the recovery of this market to mitigate the impact, helping these enterprises to maintain the slighter fall in export value.
Navico is one of the export companies that can significantly benefit from the recovery of the Chinese economy
Navico is one of the export companies that can significantly benefit from the recovery of the Chinese economy. The increase in orders from the Chinese market will help Navico's pangasius export volume to grow again, thereby compensating for the declining trend in other markets.
Although Navico's profit in 2023 is better than the general situation of the industry, it will still be difficult to achieve positive growth due to the high base recorded in the same period in 2022.
Navico currently accounts for 15% of pangasius export value from Vietnam to China. The export price in the Chinese market is still relatively stable, the demand of this market is still high because it just opened after the prolonged Covid-19 lockdown. Navico intends to expand the customer base to boost orders in this market. Export volume to China is expected to grow by about 45% in 2023 and is the main growth driver for Navico.
In 2023, Navico is expected to reach VND 4,612 billion in net revenue and VND 619 billion in profit after tax, down 5.8% and 8.1% respectively compared to 2022.
Forecast on Vietnam pangasius industry in 2023 - 2025
Compiled by Thuy Linh
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(seafood.vasep.com.vn) According to data from Vietnam Customs, Vietnam’s pangasius exports in January 2025 reached over USD 133 million, marking a 19% decline compared to the same period last year. Notably, the ranking of the top pangasius import markets saw significant adjustments.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) According to a report by the General Statistics Office, the estimated pangasius output for January 2025 reached 102.5 thousand tons, representing a 6.0% increase compared to the corresponding period of the preceding year. This surge is attributed to the rise in pangasius material prices within the Mekong Delta, which has incentivized aquaculture farmers to expand their stocking activities. Concurrently, this price increase has facilitated processing enterprises to intensify procurement efforts to meet export demands during the early part of the year.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Between 2015 and 2024, Vietnamese pangasius exporting enterprises have undergone notable transformations in rankings and experienced fluctuations in developmental strategies, competitive intensity, and business efficacy. This dynamic is clearly illustrated through shifts in export turnover and the proportional contribution to the national pangasius export volume among the Top 5 enterprises.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The outlook for Vietnam’s seafood exports remains positive, with a strong focus on maintaining growth in key markets like China and the U.S., while diversifying into new regions. As global trade policies continue to evolve, adaptability and strategic planning will be key to navigating the challenges ahead.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Thanks to improved pangasius prices and higher production, Vĩnh Hoàn's after-tax profit in Q4 2024 reached VND 440 billion, a 4.8-fold increase compared to the same period last year.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) According to data from Vietnam’s Customs, in Q4 2024, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to China & Hong Kong reached USD 163 million, a 17% increase compared to the same period in 2023, with consistent growth across all months. The total value of pangasius exports to China & Hong Kong for 2024 reached USD 581 million, a 1% increase over the previous year.
Vietnam’s seafood exports are projected to maintain strong growth this year, potentially reaching 11 billion USD.
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