Vietnam's seafood exports are confident of reaching 2025 billion USD by 11. How will US tax policy affect it?

Will seafood exports reach the 2025 billion USD mark by 11?

In 2024, Vietnam's seafood exports will overcome many difficulties and challenges in terms of raw material sources, reduced demand, increased competition, and increased market barriers, thereby achieving an export value of over 10 billion USD, not including more than 250 million USD from fishmeal exports, an important source of raw materials for the animal feed industry.

Specifically, the shrimp industry achieved an export value of nearly 3,9 billion USD, an increase of 15% compared to 2023. This result is thanks to the strategy of focusing on the strength of value-added products and diversifying product segments (whiteleg shrimp, tiger shrimp, lobster, sea shrimp, etc.), the shrimp industry still maintains its competitiveness and stable development.

For the pangasius industry, despite facing difficulties such as rising shipping costs and slow recovery of import prices, export value will still reach 2 billion USD in 2024, up 9% over the previous year. Traditional markets such as the US, Brazil, Colombia and CPTPP countries have become important driving forces to help the pangasius industry recover.

Meanwhile, the export of exploited seafood (tuna, crab, squid, octopus, shellfish and other marine fish) also recorded success with a turnover of more than 4 billion USD, despite many difficulties in raw material sources and IUU regulations that must be complied with.

According to Ms. Le Hang, Communications Director of the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), in 2025, seafood exports are expected to continue to grow better and may return to the 11 billion USD mark of 2022. Besides opportunities, 2025 is also the year when the seafood industry will face many challenges.

In 2024, Vietnam's seafood exports will reach over 10 billion USD, with shrimp exports contributing the most, reaching 3,9 billion USD.

Regarding the export opportunities of Vietnam's seafood industry in 2025, Ms. Le Hang said that many major economies such as the US, China and the European Union (EU) have recorded a recovery in 2024, although the growth rate is clearly differentiated between countries. The global seafood market, especially large markets such as the US, EU, Japan and China, will continue to maintain high demand. African, Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern markets may also expand, creating opportunities for high-quality seafood products from Vietnam.

In addition, Vietnam has signed 16 free trade agreements and is negotiating three more. New-generation agreements, especially the EVFTA (with the EU) and CPTPP, help reduce export taxes, increase market access and enhance the competitiveness of Vietnamese seafood, especially in the context of the global economy still being restrained by geopolitical instability.

The trend of shifting to exporting value-added products: Developing value-added seafood products is not only a trend but also an important strategy for the Vietnamese seafood industry to expand and maintain its position in the markets.

In particular, the trend of producing by-products from aquatic raw materials brings opportunities to increase value for the aquatic industry, implement circular economy criteria, reduce environmental impact...

New US tax policy: If the US increases taxes on seafood products from rival countries such as China, this may create opportunities for Vietnamese seafood products to replace, especially when the quality of Vietnamese seafood is highly appreciated and the prices are more competitive. The US market may look to Vietnam as an alternative source when products from countries affected by higher taxes.

The US tax increase policy in 2025 will have a major impact on Vietnam's seafood industry, but Vietnamese enterprises will also face many major challenges such as increased export costs and the risk of being subject to anti-dumping and anti-subsidy taxes.

What challenges does the fisheries industry face?

According to Ms. Le Hang, climate change, increased competition from other countries, trade wars and market barriers will be challenges for Vietnam's seafood exports in 2025.

Accordingly, climate change will affect the development of aquatic resources, especially aquaculture. Rising sea levels, changes in temperature and polluted water sources can cause difficulties in the production of aquatic materials, and the risk of disease will reduce the supply and quality of raw materials.

Major seafood producing countries such as India, Thailand, China and Ecuador are also making efforts to increase the output and quality of seafood exports. This creates fierce competition in price and product quality for Vietnamese seafood.

Factors such as rising prices of animal feed, fuel, and transportation costs may affect the cost of seafood production. This will reduce the competitiveness of Vietnamese products in the international market.

VASEP forecasts that Vietnam's seafood exports will reach 2025 billion USD in 11.

Trade wars between major powers, especially between the US and China, could cause major disruptions in the global supply chain. This could lead to changes in input material prices and transportation costs, thereby affecting export prices and the competitiveness of Vietnamese seafood in the international market.

IUU yellow card, trade protection measures such as anti-dumping, anti-subsidy or strict regulations on quality and environment can increase costs, reduce supply, and reduce the competitiveness of Vietnamese seafood exporting enterprises.

Additionally, geopolitical developments can significantly impact Vietnam’s seafood trade, as the seafood industry plays an important role in exports and the national economy. Geopolitical factors can impact in a variety of ways, from changes in trade policy to regional tensions that can impact supply chains.

Mr. Le Thanh Hoa, Deputy Director of the Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) said that our country's seafood export turnover in 2024 exceeded the 10 billion USD mark, which is a success for the entire industry. However, in 2025, it is necessary to monitor more closely the issue of antibiotic residues in exported seafood shipments.

Regarding the market, Mr. Hoa said that in 2025, the Department of Quality, Processing and Market Development will actively coordinate with the Department of Animal Health in disease surveillance so that Saudi Arabia will soon reopen its doors to Vietnamese farmed shrimp and fish. At the same time, it will actively negotiate and try to exploit the Chinese market better.

Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Phung Duc Tien said that the fisheries sector in 2024 will have a number of important highlights, with a total output of 9,6 million tons, an export turnover of more than 10 billion USD, and 100% disbursement. The Department of Fisheries is a highly united bloc, operating relatively synchronously. In 2025, the fisheries sector will continue to perfect the legal framework to ensure practicality so that policies and regulations can truly come into life.

Source: vietnam.vn