Vietnam seafood exports in the first 2 months of 2025 and market fluctuations

Shrimp: Strong growth momentum

Shrimp continued to be the largest bright spot, contributing USD 542.387 million in the first two months of the year, marking a growth of 30.8%. In February 2025 alone, shrimp export value reached USD 231.406 million, a 33.9% increase. This recovery indicates that the shrimp industry is regaining its growth momentum after a prolonged period of low prices in 2023-2024. Despite a decline in imports from China and the U.S. in 2024, other markets such as the EU and emerging regions have filled the gap, helping maintain global shrimp production stability while prices have improved. This suggests a healthier balance between supply and demand.

The EU has become a key market, with imports of frozen Penaeus shrimp and value-added processed shrimp reaching 376,875 tons in 2024, an increase of 4% compared to 2023. The long-term growth trend is evident as imports in 2024 were 26% higher than in 2019, primarily due to contributions from Ecuador (+78%) and India (+47%). Vietnam also recorded partial recovery in its supply to the EU, solidifying its position among the top suppliers. However, increasing competition from Ecuador and India requires Vietnam to focus on value-added products and diversify markets to maintain its competitive edge.

The shrimp industry’s outlook for 2025 is relatively optimistic, provided that instability factors such as the trade war during the Trump administration do not cause further disruptions. Average import prices have risen since October 2024 and are expected to remain high throughout 2025, thanks to stable inventories, which provide confidence for both exporters and importers.

Pangasius: Price growth but underlying risks

Pangasius exports reached USD 253.241 million in the first two months of the year, but showed a slight negative growth (-0.8%) compared to the same period. In February 2025, the export value was USD 120.057 million, marking a strong growth of 32.8%, signaling a short-term recovery. The price of commercial-sized pangasius is currently at its highest level in three years (32,000-33,000 VND/kg for fish over 1kg), providing substantial profits for farmers (2,000-3,500 VND/kg). This price increase is a result of rising export demand, especially since late 2024, when businesses reported steady orders extending through at least June 2025.

However, the pangasius market faces significant challenges. Raw material prices have increased due to rising input costs (feed, labor) and uncertainties from U.S. tariff policies, with an additional 10% tax on seafood processed from China, which indirectly affects global trade flows. Demand in the U.S. remains sluggish, and large inventories may suppress price increases. Pangasius farmers need to be cautious and avoid spontaneous production expansion, as current prices may be "artificial" and could drop if supply exceeds demand. Collaborating with businesses, applying modern farming technologies, and focusing on value-added products will be key to maintaining a competitive advantage.

Tuna: Stability amid challenges and international regulations

Tuna exports reached USD 126.481 million in the first two months of the year, a slight decrease of 3.5%, with February 2025 reaching USD 59.986 million, showing a growth of 15.9%. Japan, one of the main markets for Vietnamese tuna, has shown price stability, though at a low level. The price of frozen bigeye tuna at the Toyosu Market (Tokyo) has remained around 650 yen/kg since week 4 of 2025, 100 yen/kg lower than last year, due to tight supply from the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Meanwhile, premium bluefin tuna remains scarce, pushing the auction price of high-quality tuna at Oma (Aomori) to exceed 10,000 yen/kg on February 20, 2025.

The Vietnamese tuna export industry is facing significant challenges from major importing markets like the EU and the U.S. 

Other products

Other product groups such as various fish (USD 302.783 million, up 13.6%), squid and octopus (USD 101.009 million, up 13.8%), mollusks (USD 39.089 million, up 121.6%), and crabs (USD 62.762 million, up 86.1%) all show significant potential. Notably, mollusks and crabs have recorded remarkable growth due to strong demand from the Chinese market.