Shrimp exports over 11 months: Consolidating markets and maintaining growth momentum amidst trade pressures

Growth signals in key markets

The 11-month market landscape shows broadly based growth across most major markets, albeit at varying rates. China and Hong Kong remained the leading destinations with $1.2 billion, accounting for over 28% of Vietnam’s total shrimp export value and surging 59% year-on-year. Although November's value hit $108 million - a slight dip from October - it still represented a 27% increase compared with the same period last year, underscoring steady demand for live, fresh and frozen shrimp products.

The CPTPP bloc continued its positive trajectory, reaching $1.2 billion in 11 months, up 32%. Within this group, Japan maintained its vital position with a value of $535 million, up 13%, driven notably by rising demand for processed shrimp products in the retail segment. Australia, the UK and Canada also sustained stable growth, reinforcing the CPTPP region’s outlook amid heightened volatility in the U.S and EU markets.

In the United States, shrimp exports totaled $754 million, up 7% over 11 months, despite November revenues slipping 7% year-on-year to $52 million due to the impact of US trade remedy measures. The slowdown in late-year shipments reflected front-loaded deliveries in August and September following the announcement of high preliminary POR19 anti-dumping duties. Nevertheless, demand remained relatively resilient, particularly for value-added products which Vietnam's competitive advantage.

The EU market also recorded a notable recovery with 11-month export value reaching $540 million, up 21%. Strong growth was seen in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands, supported by supply shortages of black tiger shrimp from India and Indonesia at certain times, as well as a shift toward processed products with sustainability certifications.

Steady growth in whiteleg shrimp exports

During the first 11 months of the year, whiteleg shrimp continued to dominate, generating $2.8 billion, equivalent to 64.8% of total export value. Processed products performed particularly well, buoyed by demand from Japan, the EU and Australia. Black tiger shrimp exports reached $426 million, up 4%, mainly supported by stable demand from Asian markets and parts of the EU, though it remains under significant competitive pressure from lower-priced suppliers.

The most striking highlight of 2025 was the breakthrough growth of the “other shrimp” category, which surpassed $1 billion, soaring 74% year-on-year. This was the direct result of a boom in lobster exports to China, especially in the live and premium segments. The shift in product structure demonstrates the industry’s rapid adaptability to market demand while increasing the average export value over the year.

China: Growth driver and competitive challenges

China remained the strongest growth market for Vietnamese shrimp in 2025. Beyond leading in turnover, the market showed a strong preference for live and fresh products, particularly lobster which recorded triple-digit growth. Processed whiteleg shrimp also expanded sharply, reflecting a consumption shift in major urban centers.

However, competition in this market is intensifying rapidly. Ecuador and India maintain retain advantages in the low-price segment, while Thailand and Vietnam compete head-to-head in premium and processed categories. Vietnam benefits from geographic proximity, enabling shorter delivery times and flexibility to market fluctuations. Nevertheless, frequent changes in China’s customs policies, traceability requirements and border controls require businesses to upgrade management and compliance demands.

China is viewed as a vital growth engine but also a source of volatility. In Q4 2025 and early 2026, demand is expected to remain high due to the festive season and Lunar New Year, although momentum may soften after the peak period.

The U.S: Tax pressures and a Cautious Outlook for 2026

The U.S emerged as the most challenging market in 2025, facing the simultaneous impact of high preliminary POR19 anti-dumping duties and reciprocal tariffs under new trade policies. Rising compliance costs pushed export prices of Vietnamese whiteleg shrimp to $12.8-14.1/kg in Q3, while black tiger shrimp prices climbed to $17.9–20.4/kg, significantly eroding competitiveness against Ecuador and South Asian suppliers.

Exports to the U.S in the second half of the year were largely defensive as companies rushed shipments ahead of new tariff implementation. If the final results of POR19 remain unchanged, shrimp exports to the US in Q1 2026 could see a marked decline.

With 11-month export turnover exceeding $4.3 billion, Vietnam’s shrimp exports are expected to hit the $4.5-4.6 billion in 2025 - the highest level on record. The strong growth reflects processing capacity, product diversification and adaptability amid a volatile global trade environment.

Looking ahead to 2026, the outlook turns more cautious. Tariff pressures in the US, competition in China and high domestic production costs remain the dominant factors for Q1/2026. However, if enterprises continue to expand into CPTPP, EU and Middle Eastern markets while optimizing value-added products, Vietnam’s shrimp exports may still sustain growth momentum in 2026.