Shrimp exports to the US in September 2023 continue positive growth

Vietnam's shrimp exports in September this year saw positive signals from markets such as the US, Australia, Canada, Belgium, and Taiwan with positive growth rates from 1% -54%. The remaining major markets such as the EU, Japan, and Korea still recorded negative growth from 10% to 26%, however, the decrease is lower than in previous months. As for the China and Hong Kong markets, after positive growth in the 3 months of June-August, shrimp exports continued their downward trend.

Regarding export products, as of September this year, the export value of whiteleg shrimp (accounting for 74%) reached 1.9 billion USD, down 26%, black tiger shrimp export value reached 356 million USD (accounting for 14%), down 23%. The rest is the export value of other shrimp with 298 million USD, down 28%, in which the export of canned and dried other shrimp increased by 20% and 57% respectively.

In September 2023, Vietnam’s shrimp exports to China & Hong Kong decreased by 13%, reaching 61 million USD. Shrimp exports to this market decreased in September after consecutive positive growth in 3 months of June-August. Accumulated in 9 months, shrimp exports to this market reached 454 million USD, down 6%.

After the long holiday period including the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day in China, shrimp consumption demand recorded a decrease. The reason is that this country has a high inventory due to importing a lot of shrimp from Ecuador. Companies hold inventory and do not want to reduce prices to release stock. The nuclear wastewater discharge event from Japan is also said to have an impact on seafood consumption demand in general, including shrimp in the Chinese market. It is expected that in the last quarter of the year, China's shrimp consumption demand will not recover.

The US is considered a market with a positive trend in shrimp imports from Vietnam as shrimp exports to this market continued positive growth in September - marking the 3rd consecutive month of increase. Shrimp exports to the US in September recorded the highest growth compared to the previous two months with an increase of 23% compared to the same period last year. In the first 9 months of the year, shrimp exports to the US reached 520 million USD, down 23%.

Shrimp imports into the US in August continued to increase with a total of 73,429 tons, up from 71,388 tons in August 2022 and from 69,356 tons in July 2023. India, Ecuador, and Indonesia continue to be the 3 largest shrimp suppliers to the US.

Along with the trend of increasing shrimp imports, forecasts for US economic growth are also quite positive. According to IMF forecasts, the US economy will grow by 2.1% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024, up 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared to the forecast in July.

The US is a net energy exporter, so it gains more profits when energy prices rise due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war. In addition, consumer spending in the US is more stable, less affected by policies to raise interest rates due to higher long-term mortgage-debt ratios and financial support measures during the Covid-19 period in the US also more "generous".

With positive signals from markets such as the US, Canada, and Australia with increased demand for deep-processed shrimp during the year-end holidays, Vietnam's shrimp exports in the last months of this year will continue to narrow the decline and record positive results more than the first half of 2023.