Vietnam’s seafood exports in January 2025: Remarks and Forecast

January has brought in a promising start for 2025, with a slight increase of 3% in seafood exports compared to the same time last year. The total export value hit over $774 million, setting a positive tone for the year ahead.

Key highlights from exports in January

The main driver of this increase? Higher demand from China during the Lunar New Year celebrations. The Chinese market, in particular, has shown a surge in imports of high-end seafood products like lobster, crab, and clams. Notably, lobster exports to China reached a staggering $70 million in January, nearly half of Vietnam's seafood exports to China for the period, marking a ninefold increase from last year. Similarly, exports of crab to China skyrocketed 18 times, hitting $18.5 million in the same month.

Thanks to the boost in lobster exports, Vietnam’s total shrimp exports have surged by 24%, providing an important boost not only for China but also for other ASEAN markets. These markets remain crucial for Vietnam’s seafood industry, and such growth is vital in maintaining the sector’s positive trajectory.

Declining exports and global market uncertainty

While some products like pangasius, tuna, cephalopod, and other items have seen a decline in exports, this is relatively typical for this time of year. Experts are watching closely as global seafood trade is largely influenced by shifting policies, particularly U.S. tariff regulations. With the new administration in place, it’s still early to determine how these tariffs will impact the seafood industry, both for Vietnam and other global players.

Experts estimate that it will take 3 to 6 months to get a clearer view of how the U.S. market will evolve in response to these policies. During this time, we can expect both exporters and U.S. importers to ramp up trade activity. This could lead to an uptick in exports to the U.S. in the coming months. However, there are challenges ahead—rising transportation and logistics costs could be a concern, especially for popular items like shrimp and pangasius.

The competition and emerging trends

While Vietnam’s position in the Chinese seafood market remains strong, competition is heating up. With local Chinese products and competitors from countries like India, Ecuador, and Canada vying for space in markets like the U.S., Europe, and ASEAN, it’s going to be tough. Additionally, with new import tariffs from the U.S. affecting China and Canada, the dynamics are shifting, and it’s unclear how the global seafood market will adapt.

In the face of this competition, Vietnamese businesses need to stay flexible and responsive to changes in the market. Here are a few recommendations:

Recommendations for Vietnamese seafood businesses

1. Adapt and diversify: Keep a close eye on shifting demand and adjust product offerings accordingly. For example, there’s a great opportunity to increase Vietnam’s share of the U.S. pangasius market while boosting exports of fresh seafood like lobster and crab to China.
2. Focus on high-quality and traceability: Maintaining high standards for seafood quality, transparency, and traceability will help uphold Vietnam’s reputation in key markets and expand market share.
3. Expand into new markets: Beyond the U.S. and China, the Middle East offers new opportunities. ASEAN markets will continue to play a key role, but expanding into the EU and other regions could prove beneficial. Staying ahead of anti-dumping tariffs and tax barriers will also be crucial.
4. Invest in deep processing: By focusing on enhancing the value of seafood products through deep processing, Vietnam can improve its competitiveness and offer higher-value items that attract more premium prices in international markets.