Positive outlook for pangasius, tuna, and crab in the last months of the year

By the end of October 2023, shrimp accounted for 38% of seafood export turnover with a value of over 2.8 billion USD, down 24% over the same period last year. In October alone, shrimp exports reached 320 million USD, down 11% compared to October 2022.

Shrimp exports in the last months of 2023 and in 2024 depend largely on fluctuations in the US market. Shrimp import volume began to recover, however, shrimp import prices in the US were still much lower than the same period last year. Falling import prices not only affect Vietnam's exports, but the Indian shrimp industry also struggles.

The seafood industry has had a worldwide shrimp surplus for more than a year. In the US, EU and China, average import prices in 2023 fell by 13.4%, 10% and 2.7% respectively. It is forecasted that the consumption and import situation in the US will be better in November and December.

Pangasius exports in October reached 189 million USD, a slight increase of 5% over the same period in 2022. Accordingly, by the end of October, pangasius exports reached over 1.5 billion USD, down 28% over the same period last year. It seems that pangasius exports are showing more positive signs, after positive information about the US market. After the FSIS inspection program, Vietnamese pangasius was rated good for food safety. In addition, preliminary results for the 19th review (POR19) for Vietnamese frozen pangasius filets exported to the US from August 1, 2021 to July 31, 2022 had much lower tax rates than the previous period. Although not the final result, this is good news for Vietnamese pangasius exporters to the US market.

The US market's demand for pangasius is also recovering. Currently, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is looking to purchase 5.96 million pounds of frozen pangasius and catfish filets for use in domestic food distribution programs. This is the ministry's third largest catfish purchase in 2023, following the purchase of 6.2 million pounds of unbreaded catfish filets for a total of USD 41.8 million (EUR 38 million) in March.

China’s demand for pangasius has decreased significantly since the beginning of 2023, but sales of breaded pangasius filets are showing signs of improvement in this market...In the first 8 months of this year, China imported 11,900 tons of pangasius from Vietnam, down 41% over the same period last year. However, sales of fried Pangasius filets are still increasing, as this product appears more and more on restaurant menus in Northern China at prices of 5.47 - 6.83 USD/serving. This product also received positive feedback from Chinese consumers.

Tuna and crab exports in October tended to be more positive with double-digit growth, up 13% and 40% respectively over the same period, reaching 87 million USD and 28 million USD. By the end of October, tuna brought in 704 million USD, down 20%, and crab earned 164 million USD, down 12% than the same period last year.

Squid, octopus and shellfish products still maintained negative growth of 10-13% in October. Accumulated in the first 10 months of the year, squid and octopus exports recorded sales of over 540 million USD, down 14%, shellfish of over 109 million USD, down 10%. Exports of other marine fish except tuna reached about 1.6 billion USD, down 8%, in October alone reached 166 million USD, down 11%.

Consumption of tuna, squid, octopus and some high-class seafood continues to be affected by economic downturns, high inflation, and cautious consumer spending. In order for most consumers to still have access to popular and high-class seafood products, seafood processors and traders are tending to package products in smaller sizes, at prices suitable for all income classes. This trend is expected to stimulate better demand for seafood in the near future.