The weather phenomenon will particularly hit the anchovy stock and as a result the fishmeal industry, while also affecting giant squid catches for direct human consumption, said Icochea.
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), commonly known as El Nino, started in February in the marine area nearby Australia. According to Icochea, its abnormally high temperatures this year are reminiscent of 1997-98, which witnessed one of the strongest El Nino ever.
Data gathered by the researcher suggests the event as grown in strength since it started, but only in April will data show more precisely the magnitude of El Nino.
Not all scientists share Icochea’s forecast, however.
The latest report from NOAA’s climate prediction center (NCEP), dated March 6, shows uncertainly about this prediction, and says there is about a 50% chance of El Nino developing during the summer or fall.
For his part, German Vasquez, president of ENFEN — a Peruvian institution researching El Nino — told local media the phenomenon this year is expected to be “from weak to moderate”, similar to the El Nino of 2012, although he pointed out that “each event is different”.
Icochea, however, does not accept the parallel with 2012. Although that year also saw similarly abnormally high temperatures in waters close to Australia, Icochea argues that in 2012 a core of cold water towards South America blocked the advance of El Nino, something that is not happening now.
Rather, the researcher says the event this year is developing similarly as it did in 1997-98 and, if the patterns of the event continue as now, El Nino will hit mostly northern Peru and Ecuador, with consequences on the fishing industry to play out by the end of the year.
If this scenario does pan out, it is the anchovy stock that will be most affected, he said.
Pelagic fish such as anchovy will have to migrate to avoid the increased temperatures, and other commercially important species like giant squid, will also move to cooler, deeper waters where feed is available and there are suitable oceanographic conditions.
On the other hand, the phenomenon could mean higher catches of other species such as tuna, mahi mahi, swordfish or shark, as well as new species such as beltfish or oceanic lightfish. Unlike anchovy, which is used to feed Peru’s huge fishmeal production, these species are used for human consumption plants.
The negative impact on fishmeal production could have a silver lining, however.
“If the event becomes stronger, it’s likely to affect spawning this year, but not adult fish. As they won’t be caught, adults will be bigger and produce larger numbers of eggs after El Nino. Thus, during the following year of the event, spawning can be performed better,” Icochea said.
The scientist however warned about the risk of overfishing of anchovy in case water temperatures soar off the coast of Peru this autumn.
“Oceanic and equatorial waters would concentrate anchovy near the coast so it can be caught easily in high volumes, which can lead to overfishing,” Icochea said.
The 1998 El Nino event saw Peruvian anchovy landings dive 80% to 1.2 million metric tons year-on-year, the lowest level seen at that time since 1986, according to the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP).
Exports dropped by 66% to 662,000t, reaching $396.6m, 154.6% less than the previous year, according to FAO fisheries department unit Globefish.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) After a fairly strong upward trend in 2025, Vietnam’s clam exports entered 2026 with a mixed picture: strong growth at the beginning of the year, followed by a slowdown from March onward. According to Vietnam Customs data, Vietnam’s clam export turnover in the first four months of 2026 reached more than USD 38 million, up 2% compared to the same period in 2025.
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(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s tilapia exports in April 2026 reached USD 11 million, up 92% compared to the same period in 2025. This strong growth indicates that Vietnamese tilapia products are continuing to penetrate and expand rapidly in international markets. Cumulative export turnover in the first four months of 2026 reached USD 49 million, up 151% year-on-year.
(seafood.vasep.com) At VietShrimp Asia 2026, disease management trends in shrimp farming are shifting strongly from treatment-based approaches toward proactive prevention through environmental and pond ecosystem control.
(vasep.com.vn) After a period of strong growth, with export turnover reaching USD 38 million in Q1/2026 — up 174% year-on-year — the sector’s rapid expansion clearly reflects growing market opportunities.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first quarter of 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the ASEAN bloc reached USD 44 million, up 7% compared to the same period in 2025. After falling to the lowest level of the quarter at USD 9 million in February — reflecting the seasonal slowdown in orders after the festive period — exports recovered strongly to USD 18 million in March, the highest monthly value of the quarter. This development shows that import demand for pangasius in ASEAN remains relatively stable despite short-term fluctuations.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On May 11, 2026, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced a positive comparability finding for Vietnam’s swimming crab fisheries, along with those of Indonesia and Sri Lanka, under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). With this decision, seafood and seafood products harvested from Vietnam’s swimming crab fisheries will continue to be eligible for import into the US market.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) After a slowdown in 2025, Vietnam’s tuna exports to Germany showed more positive signs in the first quarter of 2026. However, the recovery remains uncertain as consumer demand in Germany is still cautious, while market competition is increasingly driven by pricing and supply stability.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) After a sharp decline in 2025, Vietnam’s tuna exports to Israel are showing positive signs of recovery in the early months of 2026. According to Vietnam Customs data, export turnover to this market grew steadily month by month in Q1/2026, reaching nearly USD 10 million, up 33% compared to the same period in 2025. However, compared to Q1/2024, this level remains significantly lower, indicating that the recovery is still in its early stage following last year’s strong adjustment.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Entering 2026, the U.S. whitefish market has shown complex developments as global cod supply continues to tighten, while the U.S. trade environment becomes less stable. In this context, the U.S. market has had to become more flexible in sourcing alternative whitefish. However, relying heavily on Alaska pollock is not a long-term solution, as it is a strictly managed fishery with quotas and sustainability regulations, limiting any rapid increase in output to offset cod shortages.
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