The weather phenomenon will particularly hit the anchovy stock and as a result the fishmeal industry, while also affecting giant squid catches for direct human consumption, said Icochea.
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), commonly known as El Nino, started in February in the marine area nearby Australia. According to Icochea, its abnormally high temperatures this year are reminiscent of 1997-98, which witnessed one of the strongest El Nino ever.
Data gathered by the researcher suggests the event as grown in strength since it started, but only in April will data show more precisely the magnitude of El Nino.
Not all scientists share Icochea’s forecast, however.
The latest report from NOAA’s climate prediction center (NCEP), dated March 6, shows uncertainly about this prediction, and says there is about a 50% chance of El Nino developing during the summer or fall.
For his part, German Vasquez, president of ENFEN — a Peruvian institution researching El Nino — told local media the phenomenon this year is expected to be “from weak to moderate”, similar to the El Nino of 2012, although he pointed out that “each event is different”.
Icochea, however, does not accept the parallel with 2012. Although that year also saw similarly abnormally high temperatures in waters close to Australia, Icochea argues that in 2012 a core of cold water towards South America blocked the advance of El Nino, something that is not happening now.
Rather, the researcher says the event this year is developing similarly as it did in 1997-98 and, if the patterns of the event continue as now, El Nino will hit mostly northern Peru and Ecuador, with consequences on the fishing industry to play out by the end of the year.
If this scenario does pan out, it is the anchovy stock that will be most affected, he said.
Pelagic fish such as anchovy will have to migrate to avoid the increased temperatures, and other commercially important species like giant squid, will also move to cooler, deeper waters where feed is available and there are suitable oceanographic conditions.
On the other hand, the phenomenon could mean higher catches of other species such as tuna, mahi mahi, swordfish or shark, as well as new species such as beltfish or oceanic lightfish. Unlike anchovy, which is used to feed Peru’s huge fishmeal production, these species are used for human consumption plants.
The negative impact on fishmeal production could have a silver lining, however.
“If the event becomes stronger, it’s likely to affect spawning this year, but not adult fish. As they won’t be caught, adults will be bigger and produce larger numbers of eggs after El Nino. Thus, during the following year of the event, spawning can be performed better,” Icochea said.
The scientist however warned about the risk of overfishing of anchovy in case water temperatures soar off the coast of Peru this autumn.
“Oceanic and equatorial waters would concentrate anchovy near the coast so it can be caught easily in high volumes, which can lead to overfishing,” Icochea said.
The 1998 El Nino event saw Peruvian anchovy landings dive 80% to 1.2 million metric tons year-on-year, the lowest level seen at that time since 1986, according to the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP).
Exports dropped by 66% to 662,000t, reaching $396.6m, 154.6% less than the previous year, according to FAO fisheries department unit Globefish.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp industry is entering a period of strong transformation with the emergence of various high-tech farming models, helping improve productivity and competitiveness. Over the past 5–10 years, farming practices have shifted from traditional methods to intensive and super-intensive systems, featuring lined ponds, environmental sensors, automated feeding, and data management.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) With a focus on sustainable development, high-tech application, and climate change adaptation, An Giang Province aims to maintain its brackish water shrimp production in 2026 at a level equivalent to the previous year. Specifically, output is projected to reach over 155,510 tons, serving both domestic consumption and export processing, thereby sustaining the fisheries sector’s key role in the local economic structure.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the Mekong Delta, key pangasius farming provinces such as An Giang, Dong Thap, and Can Tho are accelerating the transition toward a circular economy model, contributing to higher product value and reduced environmental impact. Instead of focusing solely on farming and processing, the pangasius value chain is increasingly utilizing by-products and waste streams to generate added value.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s scallop exports are entering a phase of impressive growth, as the global market undergoes significant restructuring. In 2025, scallop export value reached nearly USD 66 million, up 49% from USD 44 million in 2024. This upward momentum has continued and accelerated into early 2026, with exports totaling USD 18.1 million in the first two months alone—an increase of 166% year-on-year. This represents an exceptionally high growth rate, reflecting the rapid expansion of a relatively new product segment within Vietnam’s mollusk export portfolio.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) – On March 19, at the Government Headquarters, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh held a meeting with the European Commission (EC) inspection delegation on combating illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing, led by Mr. Fernando Andresen Guimaraes, Head of Unit at the Directorate-General for Maritime Affairs and Fisheries (DG MARE).
(vasep.com.vn) Australia is emerging as one of the most stable and promising growth markets for Vietnamese shrimp. Amid global trade disruptions driven by geopolitical tensions—particularly conflicts in the Middle East—strengthening and expanding into stable markets like Australia has become increasingly important for Vietnam’s shrimp industry.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the first two months of 2026, Vietnam’s squid and octopus exports reached over USD 111 million, up 23% compared to the same period in 2025. This result indicates a positive start for the sector, reflecting early signs of demand recovery in multiple markets from the beginning of the year.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the first two months of 2026, Vietnam’s fisheries sector maintained positive growth momentum, with shrimp output exceeding 132 thousand tons. This result contributed to a strong increase in seafood export turnover, despite ongoing volatility in the global economy.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s tilapia exports maintained strong growth momentum in February 2026, with many markets recording sharp increases compared to the same period last year. In February alone, export value reached USD 8.4 million, up 148% year-on-year. Cumulatively, in the first two months of 2026, total tilapia export turnover hit USD 23 million, soaring 242% compared to the same period in 2025.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In global seafood trade, sensory evaluation is increasingly becoming one of the key “technical barriers” in many importing markets-especially the United States. Issues such as filth, and signs of decomposition/spoilage are often detected through sensory evaluation methods and remain common reasons for seafood import alerts, detentions, or shipment rejections.
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