The weather phenomenon will particularly hit the anchovy stock and as a result the fishmeal industry, while also affecting giant squid catches for direct human consumption, said Icochea.
The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), commonly known as El Nino, started in February in the marine area nearby Australia. According to Icochea, its abnormally high temperatures this year are reminiscent of 1997-98, which witnessed one of the strongest El Nino ever.
Data gathered by the researcher suggests the event as grown in strength since it started, but only in April will data show more precisely the magnitude of El Nino.
Not all scientists share Icochea’s forecast, however.
The latest report from NOAA’s climate prediction center (NCEP), dated March 6, shows uncertainly about this prediction, and says there is about a 50% chance of El Nino developing during the summer or fall.
For his part, German Vasquez, president of ENFEN — a Peruvian institution researching El Nino — told local media the phenomenon this year is expected to be “from weak to moderate”, similar to the El Nino of 2012, although he pointed out that “each event is different”.
Icochea, however, does not accept the parallel with 2012. Although that year also saw similarly abnormally high temperatures in waters close to Australia, Icochea argues that in 2012 a core of cold water towards South America blocked the advance of El Nino, something that is not happening now.
Rather, the researcher says the event this year is developing similarly as it did in 1997-98 and, if the patterns of the event continue as now, El Nino will hit mostly northern Peru and Ecuador, with consequences on the fishing industry to play out by the end of the year.
If this scenario does pan out, it is the anchovy stock that will be most affected, he said.
Pelagic fish such as anchovy will have to migrate to avoid the increased temperatures, and other commercially important species like giant squid, will also move to cooler, deeper waters where feed is available and there are suitable oceanographic conditions.
On the other hand, the phenomenon could mean higher catches of other species such as tuna, mahi mahi, swordfish or shark, as well as new species such as beltfish or oceanic lightfish. Unlike anchovy, which is used to feed Peru’s huge fishmeal production, these species are used for human consumption plants.
The negative impact on fishmeal production could have a silver lining, however.
“If the event becomes stronger, it’s likely to affect spawning this year, but not adult fish. As they won’t be caught, adults will be bigger and produce larger numbers of eggs after El Nino. Thus, during the following year of the event, spawning can be performed better,” Icochea said.
The scientist however warned about the risk of overfishing of anchovy in case water temperatures soar off the coast of Peru this autumn.
“Oceanic and equatorial waters would concentrate anchovy near the coast so it can be caught easily in high volumes, which can lead to overfishing,” Icochea said.
The 1998 El Nino event saw Peruvian anchovy landings dive 80% to 1.2 million metric tons year-on-year, the lowest level seen at that time since 1986, according to the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP).
Exports dropped by 66% to 662,000t, reaching $396.6m, 154.6% less than the previous year, according to FAO fisheries department unit Globefish.
(vasep.com.vn) VASEP has officially announced the program for Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS 2026), featuring five in-depth sessions covering industry outlooks, trade barriers, buyer demand, the domestic market, and solutions to improve productivity and reduce costs across the seafood value chain.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached US$3.7 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 11% year on year. Although growth has been supported by China and several markets within the CPTPP, momentum is slowing as exports to the United States and the European Union decline. Tariff pressures, international competition, and raw material challenges are creating significant hurdles for exporters in the final months of the year.
(vasep.com.vn) Markets are changing faster, buyer requirements are becoming more demanding, and trade barriers are growing increasingly complex. In this environment, seafood businesses need more than an understanding of current market conditions. They need a longer-term perspective to answer a critical question: Where will growth opportunities come from in 2027–2029, and what should businesses do now to prepare? This is one of the key reasons why VASEP is organizing Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the Middle East reached US$113 million, up 7% year on year from the same period in 2025. Growth has become more pronounced in recent months. In August alone, exports to the region totaled US$20 million, an increase of 24%. This indicates that demand for Vietnamese pangasius in the Middle East is gradually recovering after a slowdown in March, although the pace of recovery varies across markets.
(vasep.com.vn) China’s shrimp imports continued to grow strongly in 2026, while Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the market also recorded notable growth. However, behind these positive figures lie two distinct trends: Chinese consumption is growing more slowly than imports, and lobster accounts for a substantial share of Vietnam’s shrimp exports to China, making its product mix significantly different from those of Ecuador and India. Exporters therefore need to assess each segment carefully to understand the opportunities and risks.
(vasep.com.vn) Changing markets, shifting buyer demand, and increasingly complex trade barriers are raising a key question for Vietnam’s seafood industry: Where will the new growth opportunities lie in 2027–2029?
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) As of the end of August 2026, Vietnam’s tilapia exports to the United States reached $21 million, representing a steep 48% year-over-year decline and accounting for 23% of the country's total tilapia export turnover. Frozen fillets accounted for 78% with the remainder consisting of whole frozen tilapia and frozen cuts.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) After a volatile first half of the year, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to Brazil registered robust growth in July and August 2026. In August alone, export turnover reached $19 million, surging 73% compared to the same period in 2025. Cumulatively for the first eight months, total export value reached $124 million, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Besides modifying their boats, many fishermen in Dak Lak province are making efforts to venture out to sea to harvest seafood during the rough sea season.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) At the Responsible Seafood Summit and TCRS Shrimp Summit 2026, organized by the GSA (Global Seafood Alliance) in Bangkok, Thailand, the conversation about the future of the shrimp industry began with one of its most important foundations: seedstock quality.
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