US economic recovery and new tariff policies present both opportunities and challenges for Vietnamese seafood
Forecasts indicate that the US economy will continue to stabilize and experience robust recovery in 2025, presenting significant opportunities for Vietnam's seafood sector. In 2024, Vietnamese seafood exports to the US recorded a 16% increase, exceeding USD 1.8 billion. Key products such as whiteleg shrimp, black tiger shrimp, pangasius, tuna, and crab all experienced positive growth.
A key factor contributing to increased seafood consumption in the US is the rapid growth of worker wages, outpacing the rise in consumer prices. This trend may lead to increased spending on food, including seafood. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s potential easing of monetary policy is expected to further stimulate the US economy in 2025.
However, a significant challenge for Vietnamese seafood exports to the US stems from the new administration's trade policies, particularly the risk of international trade disruptions and port congestion due to tariff changes. These factors could significantly impact trade flows and increase shipping costs.
China: A strategic market facing heightened competitive pressure
China has consistently been a key market and holds a strategic position for Vietnam's seafood sector. China's geographical proximity offers lower logistics costs compared to other major markets. Coupled with the stable growth of the Chinese economy, this presents a strong impetus for Vietnam's seafood exports.
However, Vietnam's seafood sector faces intense competition from the Chinese domestic market, particularly as China's exports to the US may decline due to new tariff policies. Furthermore, China's increasing seafood exports to ASEAN markets, such as Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, will create significant pressure on Vietnamese seafood products.
In this context, Vietnam could increase its market share in the US as China is affected by trade disputes and tariff issues. Nevertheless, competition from Chinese seafood products in international markets remains a considerable challenge.
ASEAN to spearhead global economic growth in 2025
The ASEAN region and other Asian nations are projected to lead global economic growth in 2025. Despite competition from countries such as China and India, ASEAN remains a promising market for Vietnamese seafood. However, seafood consumption in ASEAN markets could be affected by the slowdown of the middle class in Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy. Simultaneously, Thailand is facing challenges in its post-pandemic economic recovery. Nevertheless, compared to markets such as the EU and Japan, ASEAN is still considered a potential destination for Vietnamese seafood exports in 2025.
The Middle East: Rising demand for seafood imports
While accounting for less than 4% of Vietnam's total seafood export turnover, the Middle East represents a highly promising market. Seafood demand in Middle Eastern countries is rapidly increasing, particularly as these nations transition from oil-dependent economies to developing non-oil industries such as tourism, technology, and food processing. Countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait rely on seafood imports to meet domestic consumption needs. Consequently, demand for seafood imports from countries like China, India, and Vietnam is projected to continue its upward trajectory.
To capitalize on the potential of these markets, Vietnam's seafood sector needs to create incentives for farmers and fishermen to confidently engage in production, ensuring a supply of Vietnamese-origin raw materials to leverage tariff advantages. Businesses require motivation to improve product quality, enhance competitiveness, and facilitate export market access. This will pave the way for a confident resurgence in exports, potentially reaching USD 11 billion or more in 2025.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On July 9, 2026, the Embassy of Vietnam in Brazil organized the seminar titled “Sharing Information on Vietnam-Brazil Economic, Trade and Investment Relations in the First Half of 2026” to provide updates on bilateral cooperation and strengthen connections among government agencies, industry associations, and business communities of the two countries.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Seafood exports in the first 6 months of the year continued to be a bright spot with a total turnover of 5.7 billion USD, an increase of 11.4% compared to the same period last year. By commodity group, seafood is one of the three groups with a trade balance in the first 6 months of 2026 in a surplus state with 4.13 billion USD, an increase of 17%.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) For many years, Vietnam’s seafood industry has been recognized as one of the country’s key export pillars. Products such as shrimp, pangasius, tuna, squid, octopus, and a wide range of other seafood have reached hundreds of markets worldwide. Yet behind these impressive export figures lies a significant challenge: a substantial share of Vietnam’s seafood export value still comes from minimally processed products, contract manufacturing, and raw material exports—segments characterized by low profit margins and high vulnerability to fluctuations in global prices.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the context of a global economy shifting powerfully toward green and sustainable values, Vietfish 2026 is far more than just a commercial trade fair. It has become a strategic rendezvous and a "comprehensive ecosystem"—a convergence of value, knowledge, and sustainable growth opportunities for the entire industry chain.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s pangasius exports to Colombia continued their strong upward momentum in May 2026. Export value to the market reached USD 4 million, up 24% compared to the same month in 2025. Cumulative exports in the first five months of 2026 totaled USD 24 million, an impressive 48% increase year-on-year.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Hai Phong's aquaculture sector is accelerating the adoption of high technologies in aquaculture to adapt to climate change, with red tilapia and tilapia identified as the key cultured species for priority development.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s seafood exports reached nearly US$1.1 billion in June 2026, up 21.0% year-on-year. Cumulative exports in the first half of 2026 totaled nearly US$5.8 billion, representing a 12.8% increase compared with the same period last year. Exports to China and Hong Kong continued to accelerate, while shipments to the United States rebounded strongly in June. In contrast, exports to the EU, Japan, and the Middle East remained sluggish or recorded slight declines.
(vasep.com.vn) Tilapia is playing an increasingly important role in Vietnam’s aquaculture sector, driven not only by growing market opportunities but also by its ability to meet increasingly stringent requirements on quality, food safety, and traceability. In practice, tilapia farming in Vietnam is not a spontaneous or loosely regulated activity; rather, it operates under a comprehensive legal and technical framework covering the entire value chain—from hatcheries and farming to processing and exports.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached USD 1.9 billion in the first five months of 2026, up 12% compared with the same period last year. Amid continued volatility in the global seafood market, this result demonstrates that the shrimp sector has maintained positive growth momentum, supported by improving demand in several Asian markets, particularly China.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On June 16, the Department of Agriculture and Environment of Ca Mau Province announced that the locality has established a farming area code for nearly 30,400 hectares of mud crab aquaculture and granted export facility codes to five enterprises eligible to export mud crab officially to markets such as China, Cambodia, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
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