US economic recovery and new tariff policies present both opportunities and challenges for Vietnamese seafood
Forecasts indicate that the US economy will continue to stabilize and experience robust recovery in 2025, presenting significant opportunities for Vietnam's seafood sector. In 2024, Vietnamese seafood exports to the US recorded a 16% increase, exceeding USD 1.8 billion. Key products such as whiteleg shrimp, black tiger shrimp, pangasius, tuna, and crab all experienced positive growth.
A key factor contributing to increased seafood consumption in the US is the rapid growth of worker wages, outpacing the rise in consumer prices. This trend may lead to increased spending on food, including seafood. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s potential easing of monetary policy is expected to further stimulate the US economy in 2025.
However, a significant challenge for Vietnamese seafood exports to the US stems from the new administration's trade policies, particularly the risk of international trade disruptions and port congestion due to tariff changes. These factors could significantly impact trade flows and increase shipping costs.
China: A strategic market facing heightened competitive pressure
China has consistently been a key market and holds a strategic position for Vietnam's seafood sector. China's geographical proximity offers lower logistics costs compared to other major markets. Coupled with the stable growth of the Chinese economy, this presents a strong impetus for Vietnam's seafood exports.
However, Vietnam's seafood sector faces intense competition from the Chinese domestic market, particularly as China's exports to the US may decline due to new tariff policies. Furthermore, China's increasing seafood exports to ASEAN markets, such as Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, will create significant pressure on Vietnamese seafood products.
In this context, Vietnam could increase its market share in the US as China is affected by trade disputes and tariff issues. Nevertheless, competition from Chinese seafood products in international markets remains a considerable challenge.
ASEAN to spearhead global economic growth in 2025
The ASEAN region and other Asian nations are projected to lead global economic growth in 2025. Despite competition from countries such as China and India, ASEAN remains a promising market for Vietnamese seafood. However, seafood consumption in ASEAN markets could be affected by the slowdown of the middle class in Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy. Simultaneously, Thailand is facing challenges in its post-pandemic economic recovery. Nevertheless, compared to markets such as the EU and Japan, ASEAN is still considered a potential destination for Vietnamese seafood exports in 2025.
The Middle East: Rising demand for seafood imports
While accounting for less than 4% of Vietnam's total seafood export turnover, the Middle East represents a highly promising market. Seafood demand in Middle Eastern countries is rapidly increasing, particularly as these nations transition from oil-dependent economies to developing non-oil industries such as tourism, technology, and food processing. Countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait rely on seafood imports to meet domestic consumption needs. Consequently, demand for seafood imports from countries like China, India, and Vietnam is projected to continue its upward trajectory.
To capitalize on the potential of these markets, Vietnam's seafood sector needs to create incentives for farmers and fishermen to confidently engage in production, ensuring a supply of Vietnamese-origin raw materials to leverage tariff advantages. Businesses require motivation to improve product quality, enhance competitiveness, and facilitate export market access. This will pave the way for a confident resurgence in exports, potentially reaching USD 11 billion or more in 2025.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The year 2026 marks a period of strong growth for Vietnam’s tilapia industry, but it is also a time when international export competition is becoming increasingly intense. Vietnam’s tilapia exports reached USD 99 million in 2025, up 140% compared to the previous year. In the first four months of 2026 alone, export value reached USD 49 million, a 151% increase year-on-year. As global demand for affordable whitefish continues to rise, Vietnam is emerging as a noteworthy competitor to traditional tilapia powerhouses such as China, Indonesia, Brazil, and Egypt.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) With continued policy support, technological innovation and close coordination among authorities, businesses and farmers, Vietnam’s pangasius industry is expected to make a strong and sustainable breakthrough during the 2026–2030 period, reinforcing its position as the world’s leading exporter of the fish.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) During the first four months of 2026, Vietnam’s tilapia exports to Asian markets showed varying trends across regions and countries. The Middle East recorded strong growth, with Saudi Arabia emerging as the largest Asian market for Vietnamese tilapia. ASEAN markets also expanded significantly, driven primarily by Malaysia. Meanwhile, Japan maintained solid growth, while exports to South Korea declined compared to the same period in 2025.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Shrimp and pangasius continued to lead growth, helping seafood exports reach $4.67 billion in the first five months of the year; however, differentiation among product groups and increasingly stringent requirements from importing markets are posing many challenges for the industry.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Every day, the seafood processing industry in Ca Mau generates large quantities of shrimp heads and shells during processing operations. In the past, these by-products were largely treated as waste, increasing production costs and posing potential environmental risks. However, thanks to advanced processing technologies, materials once considered waste are now being transformed into high-value products, creating a circular economy model within the seafood industry.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam Clean Seafood Corporation has invested in a 280-hectare super-intensive shrimp farming zone in Tran De Commune, Can Tho City, generating export value of approximately VND 3 billion per hectare per year—around 50 times higher than traditional agricultural production.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s seafood exports reached USD 1.02 billion in May 2026, up 0.6% year-on-year. Cumulative exports in the first five months of 2026 totaled USD 4.67 billion, an increase of 11% compared to the same period in 2025.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In a rapidly changing global seafood market, timely insights and reliable data are more critical than ever. The Report on Vietnam Seafood Exports in Q1/2026 provides a comprehensive overview of the latest developments in Vietnam’s seafood production, trade performance, and export trends, helping businesses navigate uncertainty and identify new growth opportunities.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) While many major markets continue to experience slow growth, Russia has emerged as a brighter destination for Vietnamese tuna exports in early 2026. Export turnover to this market increased by nearly 55% in the first four months of the year, indicating a clear improvement in demand. Nevertheless, Russia remains a market that should be viewed with both optimism and caution.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s pangasius exports have shown encouraging signs of recovery in 2026. In the first four months of the year, total export turnover reached USD 720 million, up 17% compared to the same period last year. This result reflects improving demand across many markets, as well as the efforts of Vietnamese pangasius enterprises to maintain production, secure orders, and adapt to changing market conditions.
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