US economic recovery and new tariff policies present both opportunities and challenges for Vietnamese seafood
Forecasts indicate that the US economy will continue to stabilize and experience robust recovery in 2025, presenting significant opportunities for Vietnam's seafood sector. In 2024, Vietnamese seafood exports to the US recorded a 16% increase, exceeding USD 1.8 billion. Key products such as whiteleg shrimp, black tiger shrimp, pangasius, tuna, and crab all experienced positive growth.
A key factor contributing to increased seafood consumption in the US is the rapid growth of worker wages, outpacing the rise in consumer prices. This trend may lead to increased spending on food, including seafood. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s potential easing of monetary policy is expected to further stimulate the US economy in 2025.
However, a significant challenge for Vietnamese seafood exports to the US stems from the new administration's trade policies, particularly the risk of international trade disruptions and port congestion due to tariff changes. These factors could significantly impact trade flows and increase shipping costs.
China: A strategic market facing heightened competitive pressure
China has consistently been a key market and holds a strategic position for Vietnam's seafood sector. China's geographical proximity offers lower logistics costs compared to other major markets. Coupled with the stable growth of the Chinese economy, this presents a strong impetus for Vietnam's seafood exports.
However, Vietnam's seafood sector faces intense competition from the Chinese domestic market, particularly as China's exports to the US may decline due to new tariff policies. Furthermore, China's increasing seafood exports to ASEAN markets, such as Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, will create significant pressure on Vietnamese seafood products.
In this context, Vietnam could increase its market share in the US as China is affected by trade disputes and tariff issues. Nevertheless, competition from Chinese seafood products in international markets remains a considerable challenge.
ASEAN to spearhead global economic growth in 2025
The ASEAN region and other Asian nations are projected to lead global economic growth in 2025. Despite competition from countries such as China and India, ASEAN remains a promising market for Vietnamese seafood. However, seafood consumption in ASEAN markets could be affected by the slowdown of the middle class in Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy. Simultaneously, Thailand is facing challenges in its post-pandemic economic recovery. Nevertheless, compared to markets such as the EU and Japan, ASEAN is still considered a potential destination for Vietnamese seafood exports in 2025.
The Middle East: Rising demand for seafood imports
While accounting for less than 4% of Vietnam's total seafood export turnover, the Middle East represents a highly promising market. Seafood demand in Middle Eastern countries is rapidly increasing, particularly as these nations transition from oil-dependent economies to developing non-oil industries such as tourism, technology, and food processing. Countries like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait rely on seafood imports to meet domestic consumption needs. Consequently, demand for seafood imports from countries like China, India, and Vietnam is projected to continue its upward trajectory.
To capitalize on the potential of these markets, Vietnam's seafood sector needs to create incentives for farmers and fishermen to confidently engage in production, ensuring a supply of Vietnamese-origin raw materials to leverage tariff advantages. Businesses require motivation to improve product quality, enhance competitiveness, and facilitate export market access. This will pave the way for a confident resurgence in exports, potentially reaching USD 11 billion or more in 2025.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In 2025, Vietnam’s tuna exports to Spain increased by 13% compared to 2024. This growth trend has continued into the first two months of 2026. According to Vietnam Customs statistics, export turnover to this market reached nearly USD 3 million in January–February 2026, up 101% year-on-year and significantly higher than the same period in 2024. This development indicates that Spain is once again becoming a notable destination for Vietnamese tuna amid strong demand for tuna raw materials and products in Europe.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The 2026 brackish water shrimp farming season in the Mekong Delta has started earlier than usual, mainly driven by positive market signals, as shrimp prices in 2025 remained high and supply was limited. Many enterprises and farms in Cần Thơ, Cà Mau, and Vĩnh Long have proactively stocked early to seize opportunities. By early 2026, stocking areas in many localities had reached a high proportion of planned targets, with intensive and high-tech farming models expanding rapidly.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s tilapia exports to the United States recorded remarkable growth in 2025, opening up major opportunities while also presenting considerable challenges. The U.S. remains the largest importer of Vietnamese tilapia fillets, with export turnover reaching USD 40 million—an increase of up to 499% compared to 2024. This impressive growth reflects strong demand in the U.S. market, as supply from competing countries such as China has been constrained by tariffs and rising production costs.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Pangasius remains a strategic export commodity in Vietnam’s seafood sector. Entering 2026, the industry faces a strong need to transition from volume-based growth to a value-driven development model, with a focus on quality, food safety, and sustainability.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Following damage caused by Storm No. 13 in late 2025, brackish water shrimp farming in Gia Lai is being rapidly restored. In key farming areas such as Tuy Phước and Tuy Phước Đông, farmers are focusing on rehabilitating ponds, repairing infrastructure, and treating the environment in preparation for the 2026 crop.
(seafood.vasep.com) Facing the decline in fishery resources, Vietnam is accelerating livelihood transitions for fishermen to reduce fishing pressure and move toward sustainable development. Marine fish stocks have dropped significantly from 4.82 million tons in 2000–2005 to 3.95 million tons in 2016–2020.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp industry is entering a period of strong transformation with the emergence of various high-tech farming models, helping improve productivity and competitiveness. Over the past 5–10 years, farming practices have shifted from traditional methods to intensive and super-intensive systems, featuring lined ponds, environmental sensors, automated feeding, and data management.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) With a focus on sustainable development, high-tech application, and climate change adaptation, An Giang Province aims to maintain its brackish water shrimp production in 2026 at a level equivalent to the previous year. Specifically, output is projected to reach over 155,510 tons, serving both domestic consumption and export processing, thereby sustaining the fisheries sector’s key role in the local economic structure.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the Mekong Delta, key pangasius farming provinces such as An Giang, Dong Thap, and Can Tho are accelerating the transition toward a circular economy model, contributing to higher product value and reduced environmental impact. Instead of focusing solely on farming and processing, the pangasius value chain is increasingly utilizing by-products and waste streams to generate added value.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s scallop exports are entering a phase of impressive growth, as the global market undergoes significant restructuring. In 2025, scallop export value reached nearly USD 66 million, up 49% from USD 44 million in 2024. This upward momentum has continued and accelerated into early 2026, with exports totaling USD 18.1 million in the first two months alone—an increase of 166% year-on-year. This represents an exceptionally high growth rate, reflecting the rapid expansion of a relatively new product segment within Vietnam’s mollusk export portfolio.
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