Would 2024 see Vietnam tuna exports hit the billions?

Vietnam's tuna exports reached around $84 million in March 2024, a 17% rise. Vietnam's total tuna export revenue for the first three months of 2024 was $215 million, up 19% from the same time in 2023 but down 17% from 2022. It is anticipated that tuna exports may miss the billion-dollar mark as in 2022 at this rate and the difficulties the business faces.

Slight decrease in domestic tuna catch output

According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the total marine catch volume in the first three months of 2024 is estimated at 833.6 thousand tons, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to the same period in 2023. Specifically for tuna, the catch volume in the first three months of 2024 in the three key provinces for tuna fishing is estimated at 5,392 tons, a slight decrease of 0.8% compared to the same period last year. Specifically: in Phu Yen, the estimated catch is 1,008 tons, a decrease of 12% compared to the same period; in Binh Dinh, the estimated catch is 3,916 tons, an increase of 4%; in Khanh Hoa, the estimated catch is 368 tons, a decrease of 12%.

Unstable exports to major markets

As of the end of March 2024, Vietnam's tuna has been exported to 86 markets worldwide. Among them, exports to major markets such as the US, EU, CPTPP countries, Israel, Russia, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand accounted for 90% of the total export turnover.

In the US market, tuna exports have rebounded in March, increasing by 16% to over $32 million. Vietnam's exports of various tuna products to this market have all shown good growth in the first three months of 2024, except for frozen cooked tuna loins under HS code 16.

Alongside the US, orders to the EU are also picking up again in March, reaching $19 million, a 30% increase. Tuna exports to Italy and Germany, the two largest importing markets for Vietnam's tuna within the EU, continue to grow steadily. However, many markets within the EU bloc such as the Netherlands, Spain, Lithuania, are experiencing a decline in imports from Vietnam.

Exports to Israel and Canada are also continuing to accelerate in March, with growth rates of 95% and 143%, respectively.

After a period of instability, exports to the Russian market have been steadily increasing since late 2023. In March 2024 alone, tuna exports to Russia increased by 4% compared to the same period in 2023. Cumulatively for the first three months of the year, exports to this market increased by 65%, reaching nearly $9 million. This figure has made Russia the fourth largest single market for tuna exports in the first quarter of 2024.

However, exports to several other major markets in March were not promising. For example, exports to Japan decreased by 18%, Mexico decreased by 38%, Chile decreased by 34%, and Thailand decreased by 78%. Therefore, the growth rate of Vietnam's tuna exports in March was not high.

Many difficulties remain

While many forecasts indicate a global tuna market recovery, Vietnam's tuna sector continues to face challenges that could hinder export growth in the near future.

Specifically, the price of raw tuna in Bangkok has dropped to its lowest level in three years, but tensions in the Red Sea continue to escalate. Although this may not have significantly affected exports in the first quarter of 2024, the current increasing freight costs and prolonged delivery times will pose many difficulties for enterprises, especially in terms of capital.

Furthermore, challenges related to seafood harvesting and regulations related to illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing are also causing difficulties for enterprises' production and exports.