Shrimp exports in the first four months of 2026: Stable demand from Asia, rising pressure from the US market

China remains the main growth driver

China continued to be the brightest spot for Vietnamese shrimp in the first months of this year. Exports to this market reached around USD 556 million, up more than 55%, accounting for nearly 38% of Vietnam’s total shrimp export turnover.

Recovering consumer demand, especially for live seafood and premium segments such as lobster, has enabled Vietnamese exporters to capitalize on advantages in geographical proximity and fast delivery times.

However, China is no longer the “easy” market it once was. The trend toward official import channels, stricter traceability requirements, tighter biosecurity controls, and greater supply chain transparency is forcing Vietnamese companies to invest more systematically in farming areas and quality management.

The US remains a high-risk market

In contrast to China, shrimp exports to the United States continued to face significant difficulties, falling more than 21% in the first four months of the year to around USD 152 million.

Persistent inflation has led US consumers to continue tightening spending, especially on higher-value seafood products. Meanwhile, shrimp prices in the US have increased while consumption volumes have declined, reflecting cautious consumer sentiment. In addition, inventory levels in the US remain high, putting downward pressure on prices offered by Asian suppliers.

Beyond market factors, exporters are also under pressure from US trade remedies. The preliminary anti-dumping duty rates under POR20 recently announced by the US Department of Commerce (DOC) were not particularly encouraging.

However, these are still preliminary results and provide an opportunity for related parties to submit additional information demonstrating the absence of dumping practices. The business community remains hopeful that the final POR20 rates, expected to be announced around November this year, will be adjusted in a more reasonable and positive direction, better reflecting the actual production conditions and competitiveness of Vietnam’s shrimp industry.

The EU and Japan remain stable markets

Shrimp exports to the EU reached around USD 160 million in the first four months of the year, up nearly 8% year-on-year. Although consumer demand in Europe continues to be affected by inflation and high living costs, the EU remains an important market for Vietnam’s value-added processed shrimp products thanks to advantages under the EVFTA.

However, increasingly stringent requirements related to sustainability, environmental standards, carbon emissions, and traceability are forcing businesses to invest more heavily in green production and supply chain transparency.

Meanwhile, Japan continued to be a stable market, with export turnover reaching approximately USD 162 million, nearly unchanged from the same period last year.

Vietnam’s strength in Japan continues to lie in its deep-processing capabilities. Convenience products such as shrimp tempura, cooked shrimp, sushi products, and small packaged items remain well suited to Japanese consumption trends amid rising living costs.

Despite export recovery, Vietnam’s shrimp industry still faces intense competition from Ecuador, India, and Indonesia.

At the same time, tensions in the Middle East are pushing up ocean freight costs again and extending delivery times. This not only affects exporters’ profit margins but also increases risks for export orders in the coming months.

Outlook for the coming months

Exports in May and the following months are expected to maintain growth thanks to solid demand from China and the relative stability of markets such as Japan, the UK, and CPTPP members.

However, the US market is unlikely to recover quickly due to high inventories, weak consumer demand, and prolonged trade risks. In the context of intensifying global competition, Vietnam’s shrimp industry will need to focus more on deep processing, cost optimization, enhanced traceability, and sustainable development in order to maintain its competitive advantage in the period ahead.