Exports to the U.S. decline, other markets drive growth
Among Vietnam’s top 10 tuna export markets in January 2026, the U.S. remained the largest, with USD 24 million, accounting for 32% of total export value. However, this figure represented a 6% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. In contrast, exports to several other major markets surged, with Japan up 95%, Germany up 39%, and the Netherlands up 15%. Some markets expanded sharply from a low base, including Egypt (up 129%) and Chile (up 133%).
The export picture in the first month of the year shows that Vietnamese enterprises are increasingly diversifying their export markets. This trend is reflected in rising exports to market blocs such as the EU (up 25%), CPTPP (up 53%), and the Middle East (up 35%).
Why did exports to the U.S. fall while other markets grew?
Although the U.S. remains the largest single market, tuna exports to the country are facing significant challenges, which are hampering trade flows.
Specifically, exporters must now comply with the MMPA requirements effective January 1, 2026. Under these rules, fishery products subject to a “negative comparability finding” are banned from import as of that date. Meanwhile, products not banned but sharing the same country of origin and HTS code with banned items must submit a Certificate of Admissibility (COA) to demonstrate compliance. These additional documentation requirements and inspections may increase costs and cause delays, particularly during the initial implementation phase.
Secondly, U.S. import tariff policies are evolving rapidly. In February 2026, international media reported that the U.S. entered a period of adjustment regarding “reciprocal/additional tariffs,” following a Supreme Court ruling and a shift to a temporary tariff mechanism under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 for up to 150 days. Some sources have also mentioned the possibility of a higher general tariff rate, depending on executive decisions. The final tariff levels applied to specific tuna product categories under different HS codes, as well as those applicable to Vietnam, will depend on official announcements and product classifications.
Exports to other markets expected to remain positive, U.S. outlook remains challenging
Given this context, exports to the U.S. are expected to remain uneven due to compliance challenges under the MMPA and ongoing tariff uncertainties. The recovery of exports to the U.S. will largely depend on enterprises’ ability to standardize supply chain documentation, review HS/HTS codes, and coordinate closely with importers to address COA requirements when necessary. If import tariffs or inspections intensify, U.S. importers may adjust sourcing portfolios, exert price pressure, or prolong negotiations, making order flows less stable than before.
Meanwhile, in the EU market, export growth could be sustained if enterprises focus on value-added and canned tuna products while meeting increasingly stringent sustainability and traceability standards.
Exports to the Middle East and North Africa, including Egypt, still hold significant potential due to strong demand for canned and convenience products. However, businesses must manage payment risks and logistics volatility to maintain momentum.
Overall, tuna exports are expected to continue growing in the early months of 2026, though the pace of growth may moderate.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) After a relatively sluggish first quarter, Vietnam's exports of fish cakes and surimi showed a clearer recovery in the second quarter, particularly in June. Export value in the first six months of 2026 reached USD 148 million, down 2% year on year. However, the newly imposed 12.5% additional U.S. tariff on Vietnamese goods, intensifying competition in Northeast Asia, and increasingly stringent traceability requirements in the EU are making the outlook for the second half of the year more uncertain.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In June 2026, Vietnam's shrimp exports reached nearly USD 458 million, up 24% year-on-year. In the first six months of 2026, export value totaled USD 2.35 billion, an increase of 14.2% compared with the same period last year. Growth was driven mainly by the Chinese market and the strong performance of lobster exports, while shrimp exports continued to face pressure from U.S. tariffs and rising logistics costs.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) As part of Vietfish 2026, the Hosted Buyer Program is designed as a specialized B2B matchmaking initiative for selected international buyers, providing opportunities to meet directly with Vietnamese seafood exporters, gain the latest market insights, and experience Vietnam's seafood supply chain firsthand.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) A project titled "Sustainable Shrimp Industry Governance" has been launched in Ca Mau Province with the aim of supporting the transition of the province's shrimp industry toward higher quality, lower emissions, stronger governance capacity, improved supply chain traceability, and the development of a sustainable shrimp brand that meets the increasingly stringent requirements of export markets.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Khanh Hoa Provincial Agricultural Extension Center, in collaboration with the Northern Center for Marine Aquaculture Research and the Van Hung Public Service Center, recently organized a training course on disease-free golden pompano seed production. The program is part of a National Agricultural Extension Project aimed at developing industrial-scale seed production models to support sustainable marine aquaculture.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s pangasius exports have shown encouraging signs of recovery in 2026. In the first four months of the year, total export turnover reached USD 720 million, up 17% compared to the same period last year. This result reflects improving demand across many markets, as well as the efforts of Vietnamese pangasius enterprises to maintain production, secure orders, and adapt to changing market conditions.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The application of high technology in shrimp farming is delivering positive results in the coastal areas of Vinh Long Province, contributing to improved production efficiency and creating significant potential for further industry expansion. However, to fully capitalize on this potential, the province is focusing on aquaculture zoning, infrastructure investment, and promoting modern, sustainable production.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Đồng Tháp Province has intensified efforts to curb illegal fishing by strengthening vessel monitoring, law enforcement and seafood traceability.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Seafood businesses need solutions to overcome bottlenecks such as labor shortages, difficulty accessing capital, high input costs, and administrative procedures in order to maintain production, adapt to market fluctuations, and effectively exploit export opportunities.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The FTA would widen access to markets with strong demand for premium food products in line with the country’s strategy of shifting exports towards increasing added value.
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