Exports to the U.S. decline, other markets drive growth
Among Vietnam’s top 10 tuna export markets in January 2026, the U.S. remained the largest, with USD 24 million, accounting for 32% of total export value. However, this figure represented a 6% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. In contrast, exports to several other major markets surged, with Japan up 95%, Germany up 39%, and the Netherlands up 15%. Some markets expanded sharply from a low base, including Egypt (up 129%) and Chile (up 133%).
The export picture in the first month of the year shows that Vietnamese enterprises are increasingly diversifying their export markets. This trend is reflected in rising exports to market blocs such as the EU (up 25%), CPTPP (up 53%), and the Middle East (up 35%).
Why did exports to the U.S. fall while other markets grew?
Although the U.S. remains the largest single market, tuna exports to the country are facing significant challenges, which are hampering trade flows.
Specifically, exporters must now comply with the MMPA requirements effective January 1, 2026. Under these rules, fishery products subject to a “negative comparability finding” are banned from import as of that date. Meanwhile, products not banned but sharing the same country of origin and HTS code with banned items must submit a Certificate of Admissibility (COA) to demonstrate compliance. These additional documentation requirements and inspections may increase costs and cause delays, particularly during the initial implementation phase.
Secondly, U.S. import tariff policies are evolving rapidly. In February 2026, international media reported that the U.S. entered a period of adjustment regarding “reciprocal/additional tariffs,” following a Supreme Court ruling and a shift to a temporary tariff mechanism under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 for up to 150 days. Some sources have also mentioned the possibility of a higher general tariff rate, depending on executive decisions. The final tariff levels applied to specific tuna product categories under different HS codes, as well as those applicable to Vietnam, will depend on official announcements and product classifications.
Exports to other markets expected to remain positive, U.S. outlook remains challenging
Given this context, exports to the U.S. are expected to remain uneven due to compliance challenges under the MMPA and ongoing tariff uncertainties. The recovery of exports to the U.S. will largely depend on enterprises’ ability to standardize supply chain documentation, review HS/HTS codes, and coordinate closely with importers to address COA requirements when necessary. If import tariffs or inspections intensify, U.S. importers may adjust sourcing portfolios, exert price pressure, or prolong negotiations, making order flows less stable than before.
Meanwhile, in the EU market, export growth could be sustained if enterprises focus on value-added and canned tuna products while meeting increasingly stringent sustainability and traceability standards.
Exports to the Middle East and North Africa, including Egypt, still hold significant potential due to strong demand for canned and convenience products. However, businesses must manage payment risks and logistics volatility to maintain momentum.
Overall, tuna exports are expected to continue growing in the early months of 2026, though the pace of growth may moderate.
(vasep.com.vn) Markets are changing faster, buyer requirements are becoming more demanding, and trade barriers are growing increasingly complex. In this environment, seafood businesses need more than an understanding of current market conditions. They need a longer-term perspective to answer a critical question: Where will growth opportunities come from in 2027–2029, and what should businesses do now to prepare? This is one of the key reasons why VASEP is organizing Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the Middle East reached US$113 million, up 7% year on year from the same period in 2025. Growth has become more pronounced in recent months. In August alone, exports to the region totaled US$20 million, an increase of 24%. This indicates that demand for Vietnamese pangasius in the Middle East is gradually recovering after a slowdown in March, although the pace of recovery varies across markets.
(vasep.com.vn) China’s shrimp imports continued to grow strongly in 2026, while Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the market also recorded notable growth. However, behind these positive figures lie two distinct trends: Chinese consumption is growing more slowly than imports, and lobster accounts for a substantial share of Vietnam’s shrimp exports to China, making its product mix significantly different from those of Ecuador and India. Exporters therefore need to assess each segment carefully to understand the opportunities and risks.
(vasep.com.vn) Changing markets, shifting buyer demand, and increasingly complex trade barriers are raising a key question for Vietnam’s seafood industry: Where will the new growth opportunities lie in 2027–2029?
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) As of the end of August 2026, Vietnam’s tilapia exports to the United States reached $21 million, representing a steep 48% year-over-year decline and accounting for 23% of the country's total tilapia export turnover. Frozen fillets accounted for 78% with the remainder consisting of whole frozen tilapia and frozen cuts.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) After a volatile first half of the year, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to Brazil registered robust growth in July and August 2026. In August alone, export turnover reached $19 million, surging 73% compared to the same period in 2025. Cumulatively for the first eight months, total export value reached $124 million, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Besides modifying their boats, many fishermen in Dak Lak province are making efforts to venture out to sea to harvest seafood during the rough sea season.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) At the Responsible Seafood Summit and TCRS Shrimp Summit 2026, organized by the GSA (Global Seafood Alliance) in Bangkok, Thailand, the conversation about the future of the shrimp industry began with one of its most important foundations: seedstock quality.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam’s tuna exports to Lithuania surpassed $14 million, up 8% year on year. While the increase remains modest, it is notable given the continued pressure on Vietnamese tuna exports to the EU as a whole. More importantly, export turnover to Lithuania has shown a clearer recovery in recent months, making the market a destination worth monitoring for Vietnamese businesses in Europe.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s squid and octopus exports exceeded $527 million in the first eight months of 2026, marking a 15% year-on-year increase. This growth is particularly notable given the strong baseline established in 2025, when export turnover for the same period reached $458 million, a 13% rise from 2024.
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