Exports to the U.S. decline, other markets drive growth
Among Vietnam’s top 10 tuna export markets in January 2026, the U.S. remained the largest, with USD 24 million, accounting for 32% of total export value. However, this figure represented a 6% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. In contrast, exports to several other major markets surged, with Japan up 95%, Germany up 39%, and the Netherlands up 15%. Some markets expanded sharply from a low base, including Egypt (up 129%) and Chile (up 133%).
The export picture in the first month of the year shows that Vietnamese enterprises are increasingly diversifying their export markets. This trend is reflected in rising exports to market blocs such as the EU (up 25%), CPTPP (up 53%), and the Middle East (up 35%).
Why did exports to the U.S. fall while other markets grew?
Although the U.S. remains the largest single market, tuna exports to the country are facing significant challenges, which are hampering trade flows.
Specifically, exporters must now comply with the MMPA requirements effective January 1, 2026. Under these rules, fishery products subject to a “negative comparability finding” are banned from import as of that date. Meanwhile, products not banned but sharing the same country of origin and HTS code with banned items must submit a Certificate of Admissibility (COA) to demonstrate compliance. These additional documentation requirements and inspections may increase costs and cause delays, particularly during the initial implementation phase.
Secondly, U.S. import tariff policies are evolving rapidly. In February 2026, international media reported that the U.S. entered a period of adjustment regarding “reciprocal/additional tariffs,” following a Supreme Court ruling and a shift to a temporary tariff mechanism under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 for up to 150 days. Some sources have also mentioned the possibility of a higher general tariff rate, depending on executive decisions. The final tariff levels applied to specific tuna product categories under different HS codes, as well as those applicable to Vietnam, will depend on official announcements and product classifications.
Exports to other markets expected to remain positive, U.S. outlook remains challenging
Given this context, exports to the U.S. are expected to remain uneven due to compliance challenges under the MMPA and ongoing tariff uncertainties. The recovery of exports to the U.S. will largely depend on enterprises’ ability to standardize supply chain documentation, review HS/HTS codes, and coordinate closely with importers to address COA requirements when necessary. If import tariffs or inspections intensify, U.S. importers may adjust sourcing portfolios, exert price pressure, or prolong negotiations, making order flows less stable than before.
Meanwhile, in the EU market, export growth could be sustained if enterprises focus on value-added and canned tuna products while meeting increasingly stringent sustainability and traceability standards.
Exports to the Middle East and North Africa, including Egypt, still hold significant potential due to strong demand for canned and convenience products. However, businesses must manage payment risks and logistics volatility to maintain momentum.
Overall, tuna exports are expected to continue growing in the early months of 2026, though the pace of growth may moderate.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s pangasius industry is facing new opportunities to expand its development space as many localities and businesses begin promoting marine farming models aimed at diversifying farming areas and adapting to climate change. However, for pangasius to truly “go offshore” and develop into a large-scale industry segment, significant challenges related to technology, broodstock, and markets still need to be addressed.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s tilapia exports in April 2026 reached USD 11 million, up 92% compared to the same period in 2025. This strong growth indicates that Vietnamese tilapia products are continuing to penetrate and expand rapidly in international markets. Cumulative export turnover in the first four months of 2026 reached USD 49 million, up 151% year-on-year.
(seafood.vasep.com) At VietShrimp Asia 2026, disease management trends in shrimp farming are shifting strongly from treatment-based approaches toward proactive prevention through environmental and pond ecosystem control.
(vasep.com.vn) After a period of strong growth, with export turnover reaching USD 38 million in Q1/2026 — up 174% year-on-year — the sector’s rapid expansion clearly reflects growing market opportunities.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first quarter of 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the ASEAN bloc reached USD 44 million, up 7% compared to the same period in 2025. After falling to the lowest level of the quarter at USD 9 million in February — reflecting the seasonal slowdown in orders after the festive period — exports recovered strongly to USD 18 million in March, the highest monthly value of the quarter. This development shows that import demand for pangasius in ASEAN remains relatively stable despite short-term fluctuations.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On May 11, 2026, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced a positive comparability finding for Vietnam’s swimming crab fisheries, along with those of Indonesia and Sri Lanka, under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). With this decision, seafood and seafood products harvested from Vietnam’s swimming crab fisheries will continue to be eligible for import into the US market.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) After a slowdown in 2025, Vietnam’s tuna exports to Germany showed more positive signs in the first quarter of 2026. However, the recovery remains uncertain as consumer demand in Germany is still cautious, while market competition is increasingly driven by pricing and supply stability.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) After a sharp decline in 2025, Vietnam’s tuna exports to Israel are showing positive signs of recovery in the early months of 2026. According to Vietnam Customs data, export turnover to this market grew steadily month by month in Q1/2026, reaching nearly USD 10 million, up 33% compared to the same period in 2025. However, compared to Q1/2024, this level remains significantly lower, indicating that the recovery is still in its early stage following last year’s strong adjustment.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Entering 2026, the U.S. whitefish market has shown complex developments as global cod supply continues to tighten, while the U.S. trade environment becomes less stable. In this context, the U.S. market has had to become more flexible in sourcing alternative whitefish. However, relying heavily on Alaska pollock is not a long-term solution, as it is a strictly managed fishery with quotas and sustainability regulations, limiting any rapid increase in output to offset cod shortages.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Aquaculture, capture fisheries, and seed production activities in Lam Dong in the early months of 2026 continued to show positive signs, with both output and farming area slightly increasing compared to the same period, contributing to maintaining overall industry stability.
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