What will the price of pangasius be if it is subject to additional reciprocal taxes
When adding the tax, the product price still fluctuates around 50-60 cents/pound - which is still much lower than that of popular white fish such as cod or pollock. This fact shows that pangasius still maintains a competitive advantage in price, a very important factor in the context of American consumers increasingly tightening their spending after the pandemic and high inflation.
Pangasius is one of the few seafood products that is both reasonably priced and flexible in processing, suitable for many consumer segments from restaurants, industrial kitchens to family retail channels.
The real value of pangasius and the adaptability of the US market
It is worth noting that Vietnam's pangasius is increasingly gaining a stronger position on the American dining table - not only in the Asian community but also in the general consumer segments. From a market perspective, this reflects the level of "attachment" of pangasius to consumers and shows that the price increase is not an insurmountable barrier.
In fact, in the past, pangasius was more expensive than it is now, and the US market still consumed it well. This shows that if the supply chain is organized flexibly and systematically, the new price after tax can be completely absorbed by the market.
Of course, risks still exist. The uncertainty about US trade policy – especially during the Trump administration – makes it difficult to develop long-term business plans. On the other hand, if Vietnamese businesses are proactive in their market strategies, pangasius can still maintain its position in the US as it has done in many previous fluctuations.
Bouncing back from non - US markets
While the US is a large market and has a great influence on the pangasius industry, other bright spots cannot be ignored. The EU market is assessed to have slight growth potential thanks to loose fiscal policies, low inflation, and an appreciating EUR. These factors can all support the purchasing power of imported seafood, including pangasius.
In addition, the reduction of whitefish fishing quotas by many European countries, especially cod, will continue to create room for pangasius to replace. Consumers in this region are already accustomed to consuming frozen fish fillets, and are more likely to accept pangasius products if the price and quality are stable.
Pangasius supply chain: not just about taxes
One of the big problems today is not about prices or taxes – but about being cautious in controlling inventory and managing risks in the supply chain. When policy shocks occur too often, importers are forced to consider worst-case scenarios. This can cause actual transaction volume to be lower than market demand.
Therefore, in addition to expecting a more stable tax policy, the pangasius industry needs to gradually build a value chain with higher “resistance” – from farming areas, processing, logistics to the international distribution system.
Repositioning domestic pangasius – a strategy that needs to go hand in hand
The tax story in the US also reiterates an old but always necessary lesson: Do not depend too much on one market. The domestic market, with nearly 100 million people, is becoming increasingly attractive with rising incomes and changing culinary tastes. The problem is that pangasius has not yet found a suitable place in the country.
Pangasius has a great advantage in terms of price, nutrition and food safety. However, the lack of brand recognition, poor packaging and ineffective distribution make it difficult for the product to compete with other meats or seafood in modern retail channels.
A synchronous campaign is needed, with the participation of the state, enterprises and associations - to bring pangasius back to its rightful position: a national product, able to "stand firm at home" before "conquering" the world.
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