Vietnam shrimp exports to the US following election

In the first three quarters of 2024, Vietnam's shrimp exports to the US totaled 566 million dollas, up 9% year-over-year. After a 7% decline in Q2, shrimp exports rebounded in Q3, increasing by 19%. In Q3/2024 alone, shrimp exports to the US amounted to 263 million dollas, a 19% rise from Q3/2023.

Lower inventory levels, rising demand for the year-end holiday season, and a more positive economic outlook have contributed to the improvement in Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the U.S.

In the first three quarters of 2024, the product mix of Vietnam's shrimp exports to the US was dominated by whiteleg shrimp (85.5%), followed by black tiger shrimp (8.9%), with other shrimp products making up the remainder. Notably, processed black tiger shrimp saw the highest growth rate of 44%, while among other shrimp categories, fresh/frozen shrimp experienced the strongest growth at 188%.

During the first three quarters of 2024, the average export price of frozen whiteleg shrimp to the US ranged from $9.6 to $10.3 per kg, while black tiger shrimp prices ranged from $14.9 to $19.3 per kg. In Q3/2024, the average export price of frozen whiteleg shrimp to the US increased slightly compared to Q2 but remained lower than the same period in 2023. Conversely, the average export price of black tiger shrimp to the US in Q3 declined slightly compared to Q2, with fluctuating prices observed throughout Q3/2024.

According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS.USDA), the US imported 550,162 tons of shrimp valued at 4.3 billion dollas in the first nine months of this year, down 4% in volume and 10% in value compared to the same period last year.

FAS.USDA data indicates that, during the first nine months of 2024, shrimp imports from Vietnam into the US showed a more positive trend compared to other major suppliers such as India, Ecuador, and Indonesia. India remains the leading shrimp supplier to the US, exporting 213,520 tons worth 1.6 billion dollas during this period, which represents a 1% decrease in volume and a 7% decline in value compared to last year.

On October 22, 2024, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) announced the final results of its anti-dumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) investigations on frozen warm-water shrimp from Ecuador, Indonesia, and the CVD investigations on imports from Ecuador, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam.

The findings revealed that India faces a CVD rate of 5.77%, which is higher than Vietnam’s rate of 2.84%. Ecuador saw positive results in the AD investigation but faces an average CVD rate of 3.78%, while Indonesia experienced the opposite, with favorable CVD results but an average AD rate of 3.90%. Among these countries, Vietnam recorded the most favorable outcomes from the DOC’s latest announcement.

The re-election of Donald Trump as US President will undoubtedly impact the import of goods, including seafood, into the country. The new administration could present both opportunities and challenges for Vietnam's shrimp exports, depending on the tariff rates Trump’s policies might impose. Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on all imported goods into the US, with goods from China facing a hefty 60% tariff. These proposals could potentially drive up consumer prices, while also impacting GDP growth and employment. Additionally, the trade war with China is expected to remain a focal point in global agricultural trade, given China’s status as a top consumer market for numerous products.