The US has a new president: what impact will it have on Vietnam’s pangasius export?

From 2019 to 2023, seafood products, including pangasius, was among the top five exports from Vietnam to the US, alongside electronics, textiles, wood products, steel, and plastics. The US has consistently been one of the largest importers of Vietnamese seafood, especially pangasius. Therefore, the election of a new US president, accompanied by new policies, will significantly impact the future strategies of export companies.

Vietnamese seafood products have long been popular in the US market. Vietnam's annual seafood exports reach about $10 billion, with approximately 1.4-1.5 billion USD coming from exports to the US. Notably, Vietnamese pangasius is highly sought after, with the US. being its second-largest importer globally, after China. In 2022 and 2023, pangasius exports from Vietnam reached over 2.4 billion USD and 1.8 billion USD, respectively. Exports to the US during these years amounted to 527 million USD (22% share) and 271 million USD (15% share), respectively. Moreover, recent data from the International Trade Center (ITC) reveals that from February to August 2024, frozen pangasius fillets surpassed frozen tilapia fillets to become the most consumed whitefish product in the US, reflecting a consistent demand for Vietnamese pangasius.

Previously, according to the preliminary results of the 20th administrative review (POR 20), two mandatory respondent companies received an anti-dumping duty rate of $0.00/kg, while six other companies enjoyed for a separate rate of $0.00/kg. These preliminary results are positive for Vietnamese pangasius exporters, with all eight companies under review achieving a zero-duty rate, a decrease from the previous POR 19 rate, which ranged from $0.00/kg to $0.18/kg.

The impact of Trump's policies on Vietnam's pangasius export industry will be twofold. With his “America First” agenda, an increase in import tariffs by 10-20% on all countries, including Vietnam, could reduce the competitiveness of Vietnamese products compared to American domestic goods. On the other hand, if China faces higher tariffs, it could create opportunities for Vietnamese firms to export to the U.S. and gain a larger market share.

According to data from Vietnam Customs, in the first half of October 2024, Vietnam's pangasius exports to the US reached 19 million USD, an 89% increase compared to the same period last year. Cumulatively, exports to the U.S. up to October 15, 2024, amounted to 275 million USD, a 27% increase from the same period in 2023.

In the first nine months of this year, frozen fillets under HS code 0304 remained the primary pangasius product imported by the US from Vietnam, with a value of 245 million USD - up 21% year-over-year and accounting for 96% of the total share.

In contrast to the previous quarter, Q3/2024 saw a positive turnaround in the export of dried and other frozen pangasius products (whole fish, cut portions, fish bladders, etc.) to the US, with a value exceeding 1.3 million USD, marking a 76% year-over-year growth. Exports of these products reached over 3.2 million USD in the first nine months of 2024, increasing by 3% year-over-year and accounting for 1% of the total share.

Notably, in the first nine months of this year, value-added pangasius products exported to the US continued to record impressive growth, with nearly 8 million USD in value - an increase of 1,666% compared to the same period last year, accounting for 3% of the total pangasius export value to the US.