Profits of seafood enterprises will decelerate in the fourth quarter of 2022
According to SSI's report, despite many fluctuations between the first and second half of the year, Vietnam's seafood industry had a remarkable year. Vietnam's seafood export turnover in the first 11 months of 2022 reached 10.2 billion USD (up 28% over the same period).
In which, shrimp and pangasius exports reached 4 billion USD (up 14% over the same period) and 2.3 billion USD (up 64%), mainly thanks to the impressive growth of 38% in the first 9 months of 2022. This is a record high result, compared to the CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of seafood exports of 4% during 2011-2021.
In the first half of the year, both shrimp and pangasius exports grew thanks to high demand and rising prices. In the second half of the year, high inflation in major economies affected consumer sentiment, while inventories remained high. As a result, export volumes rapidly decelerated in the second half of 2022.
In the first half of the year, both shrimp and pangasius exports grew thanks to high demand and rising prices.
Listed companies have posted positive business results throughout the first 9 months of 2022, although the quarterly growth rate is slowing down. Most companies benefit from the depreciation of VND against USD with revenue recorded in USD.
Only companies with dollar-denominated debt have recorded unrealized exchange rate losses, but their dollar balances are relatively low. With demand falling, average selling price and unadjusted aqua feed costs (up 33% y/y), SSI experts forecast companies will record a drop in profit in the fourth quarter of 2022.
2023 Outlook
According to the report, in 2023 inflation will continue to be a challenge for the seafood industry in the context of slow turnover of remaining inventories. Even coming events like the Super Bowl and Easter in the US can't reduce inventories that are already running high. The inventory forecast will be fully processed in the third quarter of 2023, with orders beginning to be received at this point.
The average selling price is likely to decrease by 20-30% year-on-year in 2023 and the cost of aqua feed will also decrease. With a slow increase in orders, there will be no shortage of both raw shrimp and pangasius. Thereby, it is forecast that the price of raw materials for shrimp and pangasius will decrease slightly until the end of the first half of 2023.
The fishery's gross margin will decline in 2023. With interest rates expected to remain high for the full year, rising financing costs will continue to weigh on net margins, especially for companies with high leverage, such as IDI Corporation. Overall, SSI experts forecast companies to post negative profit growth in 2023.
The Chinese consumers are very sensitive to any price changes
In the context of consumer reduction in consumption, the report suggests that pangasius sales will be less affected than shrimp sales. The reopening of China is believed to be the “catalyst” for the seafood industry in 2023. Although more time is needed to assess the quantitative impact of China's reopening on pangasius exports, the SSI experts believe that it will benefit the sector's revenue as China is Vietnam's largest pangasius export market.
However, China is a price sensitive market. The average selling price to this market is always about 40% lower than the average selling price to the US market. The report suggested that sales from China would partially offset the decline in pangasius sales from the US and EU markets, but not enough to boost companies to recover profits in the first half of 2023. This is likely due to the high comparative returns in 2022.
Experts remain concerned about the level of uncertainty surrounding China's reopening policies. The profits of pangasius enterprises are expected to decrease in 2023.
Compiled by Thuy Linh
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Although Germany’s tuna imports have declined, Vietnam’s tuna exports to the market continue to show positive signs. Notably, export value recovered strongly in Q3/2026, and German import data also show Vietnamese products strengthening their position amid competition among suppliers.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Seafood exports are holding double-digit growth, but the opportunities are not spread evenly across product groups and markets. As businesses draw up their plans for 2027, Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS2026) offers a chance to look ahead together: what to sell, where to sell it, and how to prepare for growth in the coming years.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) With less than two weeks to go, the Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS 2026) will officially take place in Can Tho. Under the theme “Seafood Market Outlook 2027–2029 – Opportunities and Potential for Double-Digit Export Growth,” the Summit is organized by VASEP at a time when seafood businesses are facing rapid market shifts, changing buyer demand, trade policy changes and growing competitive pressure all at once.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On October 28, 2026, the China Fisheries & Seafood Expo opened in Qingdao, China. The expo takes place over three days from October 28 to 30, 2026. This is a prestigious specialized seafood exhibition organized annually by Sea Fare Exposition Inc.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first nine months of 2026, Vietnam’s tilapia exports to the CPTPP bloc reached $7 million, marking a 51% year-on-year increase. The bloc rstands as the fourth-largest market for Vietnamese tilapia, trailing Brazil, the US, and Saudi Arabia.
(vasep.com.vn) VASEP has officially announced the program for Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS 2026), featuring five in-depth sessions covering industry outlooks, trade barriers, buyer demand, the domestic market, and solutions to improve productivity and reduce costs across the seafood value chain.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached US$3.7 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 11% year on year. Although growth has been supported by China and several markets within the CPTPP, momentum is slowing as exports to the United States and the European Union decline. Tariff pressures, international competition, and raw material challenges are creating significant hurdles for exporters in the final months of the year.
(vasep.com.vn) Markets are changing faster, buyer requirements are becoming more demanding, and trade barriers are growing increasingly complex. In this environment, seafood businesses need more than an understanding of current market conditions. They need a longer-term perspective to answer a critical question: Where will growth opportunities come from in 2027–2029, and what should businesses do now to prepare? This is one of the key reasons why VASEP is organizing Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the Middle East reached US$113 million, up 7% year on year from the same period in 2025. Growth has become more pronounced in recent months. In August alone, exports to the region totaled US$20 million, an increase of 24%. This indicates that demand for Vietnamese pangasius in the Middle East is gradually recovering after a slowdown in March, although the pace of recovery varies across markets.
(vasep.com.vn) China’s shrimp imports continued to grow strongly in 2026, while Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the market also recorded notable growth. However, behind these positive figures lie two distinct trends: Chinese consumption is growing more slowly than imports, and lobster accounts for a substantial share of Vietnam’s shrimp exports to China, making its product mix significantly different from those of Ecuador and India. Exporters therefore need to assess each segment carefully to understand the opportunities and risks.
VASEP - HIỆP HỘI CHẾ BIẾN VÀ XUẤT KHẨU THỦY SẢN VIỆT NAM
Chịu trách nhiệm: Ông Nguyễn Hoài Nam - Phó Tổng thư ký Hiệp hội
Đơn vị vận hành trang tin điện tử: Trung tâm VASEP.PRO
Trưởng Ban Biên tập: Bà Phùng Thị Kim Thu
Giấy phép hoạt động Trang thông tin điện tử tổng hợp số 138/GP-TTĐT, ngày 01/10/2013 của Bộ Thông tin và Truyền thông
Tel: (+84 24) 3.7715055 – (ext.203); email: kimthu@vasep.com.vn
Trụ sở: Số 7 đường Nguyễn Quý Cảnh, Phường An Phú, Quận 2, Tp.Hồ Chí Minh
Tel: (+84) 28.628.10430 - Fax: (+84) 28.628.10437 - Email: vasephcm@vasep.com.vn
VPĐD: số 10, Nguyễn Công Hoan, Ngọc Khánh, Ba Đình, Hà Nội
Tel: (+84 24) 3.7715055 - Fax: (+84 24) 37715084 - Email: vasephn@vasep.com.vn
