Profits of seafood enterprises will decelerate in the fourth quarter of 2022
According to SSI's report, despite many fluctuations between the first and second half of the year, Vietnam's seafood industry had a remarkable year. Vietnam's seafood export turnover in the first 11 months of 2022 reached 10.2 billion USD (up 28% over the same period).
In which, shrimp and pangasius exports reached 4 billion USD (up 14% over the same period) and 2.3 billion USD (up 64%), mainly thanks to the impressive growth of 38% in the first 9 months of 2022. This is a record high result, compared to the CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of seafood exports of 4% during 2011-2021.
In the first half of the year, both shrimp and pangasius exports grew thanks to high demand and rising prices. In the second half of the year, high inflation in major economies affected consumer sentiment, while inventories remained high. As a result, export volumes rapidly decelerated in the second half of 2022.
In the first half of the year, both shrimp and pangasius exports grew thanks to high demand and rising prices.
Listed companies have posted positive business results throughout the first 9 months of 2022, although the quarterly growth rate is slowing down. Most companies benefit from the depreciation of VND against USD with revenue recorded in USD.
Only companies with dollar-denominated debt have recorded unrealized exchange rate losses, but their dollar balances are relatively low. With demand falling, average selling price and unadjusted aqua feed costs (up 33% y/y), SSI experts forecast companies will record a drop in profit in the fourth quarter of 2022.
2023 Outlook
According to the report, in 2023 inflation will continue to be a challenge for the seafood industry in the context of slow turnover of remaining inventories. Even coming events like the Super Bowl and Easter in the US can't reduce inventories that are already running high. The inventory forecast will be fully processed in the third quarter of 2023, with orders beginning to be received at this point.
The average selling price is likely to decrease by 20-30% year-on-year in 2023 and the cost of aqua feed will also decrease. With a slow increase in orders, there will be no shortage of both raw shrimp and pangasius. Thereby, it is forecast that the price of raw materials for shrimp and pangasius will decrease slightly until the end of the first half of 2023.
The fishery's gross margin will decline in 2023. With interest rates expected to remain high for the full year, rising financing costs will continue to weigh on net margins, especially for companies with high leverage, such as IDI Corporation. Overall, SSI experts forecast companies to post negative profit growth in 2023.
The Chinese consumers are very sensitive to any price changes
In the context of consumer reduction in consumption, the report suggests that pangasius sales will be less affected than shrimp sales. The reopening of China is believed to be the “catalyst” for the seafood industry in 2023. Although more time is needed to assess the quantitative impact of China's reopening on pangasius exports, the SSI experts believe that it will benefit the sector's revenue as China is Vietnam's largest pangasius export market.
However, China is a price sensitive market. The average selling price to this market is always about 40% lower than the average selling price to the US market. The report suggested that sales from China would partially offset the decline in pangasius sales from the US and EU markets, but not enough to boost companies to recover profits in the first half of 2023. This is likely due to the high comparative returns in 2022.
Experts remain concerned about the level of uncertainty surrounding China's reopening policies. The profits of pangasius enterprises are expected to decrease in 2023.
Compiled by Thuy Linh
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) For many years, Vietnam’s seafood industry has been recognized as one of the country’s key export pillars. Products such as shrimp, pangasius, tuna, squid, octopus, and a wide range of other seafood have reached hundreds of markets worldwide. Yet behind these impressive export figures lies a significant challenge: a substantial share of Vietnam’s seafood export value still comes from minimally processed products, contract manufacturing, and raw material exports—segments characterized by low profit margins and high vulnerability to fluctuations in global prices.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the context of a global economy shifting powerfully toward green and sustainable values, Vietfish 2026 is far more than just a commercial trade fair. It has become a strategic rendezvous and a "comprehensive ecosystem"—a convergence of value, knowledge, and sustainable growth opportunities for the entire industry chain.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s pangasius exports to Colombia continued their strong upward momentum in May 2026. Export value to the market reached USD 4 million, up 24% compared to the same month in 2025. Cumulative exports in the first five months of 2026 totaled USD 24 million, an impressive 48% increase year-on-year.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Hai Phong's aquaculture sector is accelerating the adoption of high technologies in aquaculture to adapt to climate change, with red tilapia and tilapia identified as the key cultured species for priority development.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s seafood exports reached nearly US$1.1 billion in June 2026, up 21.0% year-on-year. Cumulative exports in the first half of 2026 totaled nearly US$5.8 billion, representing a 12.8% increase compared with the same period last year. Exports to China and Hong Kong continued to accelerate, while shipments to the United States rebounded strongly in June. In contrast, exports to the EU, Japan, and the Middle East remained sluggish or recorded slight declines.
(vasep.com.vn) Tilapia is playing an increasingly important role in Vietnam’s aquaculture sector, driven not only by growing market opportunities but also by its ability to meet increasingly stringent requirements on quality, food safety, and traceability. In practice, tilapia farming in Vietnam is not a spontaneous or loosely regulated activity; rather, it operates under a comprehensive legal and technical framework covering the entire value chain—from hatcheries and farming to processing and exports.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached USD 1.9 billion in the first five months of 2026, up 12% compared with the same period last year. Amid continued volatility in the global seafood market, this result demonstrates that the shrimp sector has maintained positive growth momentum, supported by improving demand in several Asian markets, particularly China.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On June 16, the Department of Agriculture and Environment of Ca Mau Province announced that the locality has established a farming area code for nearly 30,400 hectares of mud crab aquaculture and granted export facility codes to five enterprises eligible to export mud crab officially to markets such as China, Cambodia, Singapore, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The United States remains one of the largest export markets for Vietnamese pangasius. In the first four months of 2026, pangasius exports to the US reached USD 106 million, up 4% compared to the same period in 2025. In April 2026 alone, export value totaled USD 38 million, marking a 20% year-on-year increase and the first positive growth recorded after an extended period of decline.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) While Vietnam’s shrimp exports to many major markets continued to post positive growth in the first months of 2026, exports to the United States declined, highlighting growing competitive pressures and trade barriers facing the Vietnamese shrimp industry.
VASEP - HIỆP HỘI CHẾ BIẾN VÀ XUẤT KHẨU THỦY SẢN VIỆT NAM
Chịu trách nhiệm: Ông Nguyễn Hoài Nam - Phó Tổng thư ký Hiệp hội
Đơn vị vận hành trang tin điện tử: Trung tâm VASEP.PRO
Trưởng Ban Biên tập: Bà Phùng Thị Kim Thu
Giấy phép hoạt động Trang thông tin điện tử tổng hợp số 138/GP-TTĐT, ngày 01/10/2013 của Bộ Thông tin và Truyền thông
Tel: (+84 24) 3.7715055 – (ext.203); email: kimthu@vasep.com.vn
Trụ sở: Số 7 đường Nguyễn Quý Cảnh, Phường An Phú, Quận 2, Tp.Hồ Chí Minh
Tel: (+84) 28.628.10430 - Fax: (+84) 28.628.10437 - Email: vasephcm@vasep.com.vn
VPĐD: số 10, Nguyễn Công Hoan, Ngọc Khánh, Ba Đình, Hà Nội
Tel: (+84 24) 3.7715055 - Fax: (+84 24) 37715084 - Email: vasephn@vasep.com.vn
