The price of fish meal has increased sharply since the beginning of June and could be set to rise further as the world prepares for a possible El Niño.
In the US fish meal is made from two main sources: the whole remains of a fish called the Menhaden, a small oily fish used exclusively for fish meal and oil production, and trimmings from Alaska pollock. Total US fish meal production is approximately 340,000 tons per year, making it the fifth largest producer globally. Approximately 250,000 tons are used domestically and the rest exported, making the US the fourth largest global exporter. The fish meal industry is truly global and it is thought that the average distance fish meal is transported between production and end use is 5,000 miles. Consequently, issues affecting one major producer can also affect prices of other producers.
The largest global producer of fish meal is Peru, with 25 percent of global production and the majority exported, making it the largest global exporter. Most of Peruvian fish meal comes from a species known as the anchoveta. The Peruvian anchoveta fishery is highly susceptible to El Niño conditions, when an upwelling of cold nutrient rich water off the coast of South America known as the Humboldt Current is disrupted. This leads to a reduction in the amount of plankton available as food for the anchoveta, which leads to a smaller number of fish and lower catches.
Since April the coast of Peru has seen warmer sea temperatures, leading many to forecast the onset of El Niño conditions before the end of the year. These warmer temperatures also led to the Peruvian authorities opening the first fishing season of the year early to try and increase catch levels. Even so the catch levels are reported to be low. Lower volumes of anchoveta in Peru will lead to a fall in fish meal production and higher prices. As feed is the largest cost for the production of many farmed fish, high prices of fish meal can lead to higher prices of farmed fish and prawns.
However, in recent weeks the recorded sea temperatures are slightly cooler softening the severity of a potential El Niño and possibly reducing the effect on the global food industry.
(vasep.com.vn) VASEP has officially announced the program for Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026 (VSS 2026), featuring five in-depth sessions covering industry outlooks, trade barriers, buyer demand, the domestic market, and solutions to improve productivity and reduce costs across the seafood value chain.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached US$3.7 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 11% year on year. Although growth has been supported by China and several markets within the CPTPP, momentum is slowing as exports to the United States and the European Union decline. Tariff pressures, international competition, and raw material challenges are creating significant hurdles for exporters in the final months of the year.
(vasep.com.vn) Markets are changing faster, buyer requirements are becoming more demanding, and trade barriers are growing increasingly complex. In this environment, seafood businesses need more than an understanding of current market conditions. They need a longer-term perspective to answer a critical question: Where will growth opportunities come from in 2027–2029, and what should businesses do now to prepare? This is one of the key reasons why VASEP is organizing Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the Middle East reached US$113 million, up 7% year on year from the same period in 2025. Growth has become more pronounced in recent months. In August alone, exports to the region totaled US$20 million, an increase of 24%. This indicates that demand for Vietnamese pangasius in the Middle East is gradually recovering after a slowdown in March, although the pace of recovery varies across markets.
(vasep.com.vn) China’s shrimp imports continued to grow strongly in 2026, while Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the market also recorded notable growth. However, behind these positive figures lie two distinct trends: Chinese consumption is growing more slowly than imports, and lobster accounts for a substantial share of Vietnam’s shrimp exports to China, making its product mix significantly different from those of Ecuador and India. Exporters therefore need to assess each segment carefully to understand the opportunities and risks.
(vasep.com.vn) Changing markets, shifting buyer demand, and increasingly complex trade barriers are raising a key question for Vietnam’s seafood industry: Where will the new growth opportunities lie in 2027–2029?
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) As of the end of August 2026, Vietnam’s tilapia exports to the United States reached $21 million, representing a steep 48% year-over-year decline and accounting for 23% of the country's total tilapia export turnover. Frozen fillets accounted for 78% with the remainder consisting of whole frozen tilapia and frozen cuts.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) After a volatile first half of the year, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to Brazil registered robust growth in July and August 2026. In August alone, export turnover reached $19 million, surging 73% compared to the same period in 2025. Cumulatively for the first eight months, total export value reached $124 million, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Besides modifying their boats, many fishermen in Dak Lak province are making efforts to venture out to sea to harvest seafood during the rough sea season.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) At the Responsible Seafood Summit and TCRS Shrimp Summit 2026, organized by the GSA (Global Seafood Alliance) in Bangkok, Thailand, the conversation about the future of the shrimp industry began with one of its most important foundations: seedstock quality.
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