Vietnam's pangasius exports – optimistic signals from the US and China markets

At the beginning of 2023, the active working atmosphere of seafood enterprises, including pangasius enterprises, showed optimistic signals on the recovery of orders from the markets. On the first working day after the Tet holiday, workers of Hung Ca Co., Ltd. are busy preparing for an export order of 21 containers of pangasius fillets. At Vinh Hoan JSC, nearly 10,000 workers also return to the company to prepare for new orders.

Although in the last quarter of 2022, Vietnam's pangasius exports had fallen to the lowest level of the year with 475 million USD, down 12% compared to the same period in 2021 due to the impact of inflation causing orders from markets to decrease. However, compared to other seafood sectors, pangasius still has a better prospect in 2023, thanks to positive signals from two major markets, China and the US. 

The full opening of China has created opportunities for many agricultural export products of Vietnam, including pangasius. With 712 million USD in 2022, pangasius accounts for 40% of Vietnam's seafood exports to China (accounts for the largest proportion). Chinese people tend to prefer pangasius over tilapia. Both importing and exporting seafood is now easier. Freight costs have also dropped below pre-pandemic levels, further facilitating trade.

China's lifting of restrictions on Covid has not been able to bring about a strong recovery for seafood orders in the first month of the year, because the epidemic is still a concern of many people and the restaurant segment has not been able to open yet. Everything changes after a few months, this market will adapt and explode in demand in the consumption segments.

For the US market, the supply and demand of white fish is beneficial for pangasius. Experts and traders in the US market are optimistic about the demand for pangasius and tilapia in the US market in 2023. Both species have reasonable prices and stable supply. Meanwhile, the ban with Russia continues to reduce the supply of cod - a popular white fish in the US. Especially during Lent (from late February to mid-April), demand will increase and will have to be replaced by others such as pangasius, tilapia, pollock.

This year, the US will increase its pollock quota by 16% to nearly 1.5 million tons, but it cannot meet immediate demand. For tilapia, the trade war and Covid epidemic still limit China's exports to the  US. Therefore, pangasius still has a bright spot in this market. In the first 11 months of 2022, the US imported 120 thousand tons of pangasius fillets, while tilapia fillets reached 96 thousand tons. This is the first time that pangasius imports to the US have surpassed tilapia.

120 thousand tons of imported fish fillets into the US is also the second highest number since 2007, compared to the record level of over 130 thousand tons in 2016.

In 2022, Vietnam's pangasius exports to the US reached 537 million USD, an increase of 45% compared to 2021, maintaining a positive growth of 23% - 123% in the first 3 quarters of the year, but the increase in inventories caused a decrease in demand in the fourth quarter, so the last quarter of the year exports to the market decreased by 32%.

The US economy has a slight recovery signal, the inventory decreases and supply and demand factors may stimulate orders for pangasius to increase again after the Lunar New Year.

Those expectations can bring confidence in the resilience of pangasius businesses in 2023. 

Compiled by Thu Hang