Market overview: A blend of bright spots and challenges
China and Hong Kong remain the largest importers of Vietnamese pangasius. By the end of July 2025, exports to this market reached $302 million, down 4% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 25% of Vietnam’s total pangasius export value. In July alone, exports to this market dropped 3% to $53 million, reflecting a slowdown in demand, particularly for whole pangasius and frozen fillets segments.
The CPTPP bloc has emerged as a prominent bright spot for Vietnamese pangasius imports. Exports to CPTPP markets in the first seven months of this year reached $208 million in the first seven months of 2025, a 34% increase year-over-year. This growth was driven by markets such as Canada, Malaysia and several Latin American countries, benefiting from tariff advantages and stable consumer demand.
Exports to the U.S. hit $206 million in the first seven months, up 8% compared to previous year. However, July 2025 saw a slight decline (0.3%) to $31 million compared to July 2024. New tariff policies expected from August 1, poses a “big question mark” for the market outlook in the remaining months of the year.
Brazil continues to show strong potential, with exports reaching $106 million in the first seven months, a surge of 64% year-on-year. However, Brazil faces potential indirect impacts from the U.S.’s planned 50% tariff on goods from certain countries, which could affect whitefish, including pangasius.
EU imports of Vietnamese pangasius reached $104 million by July 2025, up 5% compared to the same period in 2024. Strong growth in Spain, Belgium, Italy and France offset declines in Germany and the Netherlands.
Processed products: A highlight in export structure
Frozen pangasius fillets remain Vietnam’s key pangasius export, generating $976 million in the first seven months, increase 11% year-on-year. Notably, exports of deeply processed pangasius (HS16) reached $30 million, rise 41% increase compared to the same period in 2024. This growth reflects a shift toward higher-value products that meet stringent market requirements and reduce risks from tariffs and raw material price fluctuations.
Outlook for the remaining months: Opportunities and challenges
In the second half of 2025, Vietnamese pangasius exports will be simultaneously affected by multiple factors. The potential U.S. tariff hike on whitefish exporters could reshape global supply chains, offering both opportunities to expand market share and risks from price competition.
Additionally, China’s demand requires close monitoring due to its sensitivity to price fluctuations and inventory levels. Meanwhile, the EU and CPTPP are expected to remain reliable “pillars”, supported by FTAs and consistent demand.
In the latter half of 2025, Vietnam’s seafood exports are expected to face headwinds if the U.S enforces a new 20% retaliatory tariff. Pangasius, in particular, will bear significant pressure on costs and pricing, especially as demand in China slows, compelling exporters to diversify into ASEAN, South America and the Middle East. Clearly, the U.S tariff serves as a stark reminder of the risks of overreliance on a single market. Yet, with proactive strategies and effective trade negotiations, Vietnamese pangasius still has opportunities to sustain its growth momentum and achieve its 2025 export targets.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Can Tho City statistics indicate that in 2025, following the merger of three former administrative entities - Can Tho, Hau Giang and Soc Trang - fisheries output in 2025 increased by 6.23% compared with 2024 with aquaculture production nearly 9.1 times higher than capture fisheries.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) According to the Ca Mau Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, Ca Mau province has achieved significant, comprehensive and substantive progress in combating IUU fishing in 2025, successfully fulfilling all tasks directed by the central government and strengthening fisheries governance. These efforts have established a solid foundation for the nationwide effort to lift the EC’s "yellow card" warning.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Ca Mau has exceeded its 2025 production targets, reaching nearly 595,000 tons of shrimp. This milestone reinforces the province’s position as Vietnam’s leading shrimp producer and a bright spot in the country’s seafood sector.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) According to Vietnam Customs data, cumulative shrimp exports from the beginning of the year through November reached $4.3 billion, up 21% year-on-year, continuing to serve as the primary growth driver of the entire seafood sector. In November alone, export turnover amounted to $393 million, up 14%.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In 2025, the fisheries sector continued to stand out as a bright spot in Ca Mau’s economic landscape, maintaining positive growth in both output and value.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) By the end of November 2025, Vietnam’s total pangasius export turnover had exceeded the $2 billion threshold, registering a 9% compared with the same period in 2024. In November alone, pangasius exports reached $195 million, also posting a 9% increase year-on-year, underscoring a stable recovery trajectory for the sector in the final months of the year.
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(seafood.vasep.com.vn) An Giang is focusing on expanding climate-adaptive marine aquaculture models, aiming for safe and sustainable production. This approach not only enhances economic efficiency but also helps fishermen stabilize their livelihoods amid weather fluctuations.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the first 10 months of 2025, Vietnam’s pangasius export value to China (including Mainland China and Hong Kong) reached $483 million, up 1% compared to the same period in 2024. October alone posted $73 million, a strong 19% increase year-on-year. The Chinese market currently accounts for nearly 27% of Vietnam’s total pangasius export value.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) According to data from Vietnam Customs, the country’s lobster exports posted another strong month in October 2025, reaching $93 million - a 75% increase from the same month in 2024. This performance extends the sector’s impressive growth streak from earlier in the year, pushing cumulative exports for the first 10 months to $712 million, up an extraordinary 135% year-over-year. Within the product mix, green lobster remained the dominant driver, accounting for 98% of total export value, with $700 million recorded in the first 10 months - a 141% jump year-on-year. In contrast, exports of spiny lobster and other lobster varieties declined slightly by 22% and 1%, respectively, indicating that market demand is becoming increasingly concentrated on the most sought-after product line.
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