The temporary 90-day suspension of the proposed 46% countervailing tariff on Vietnamese goods has provided exporters with a crucial window to ship their products to the U.S. and explore alternative market opportunities.
Currently, the export price of pangasius to the U.S. is approximately USD 3.40/kg. If the 46% tariff is implemented, the price could rise to around USD 5.10/kg—rendering Vietnamese pangasius significantly less competitive against other whitefish products. This scenario could result in substantial losses for exporters, where increasing export volume paradoxically exacerbates financial hardship. As a result, enterprises may be compelled to reassess their market strategies, potentially reducing their exposure to the U.S. and shifting focus to other regions.
In terms of volume, Vietnam’s pangasius exports across all markets experienced a sharp increase in March 2025, rising from over 55,000 tonnes to nearly 79,000 tonnes - an impressive 23% year-on-year growth.
Most major export markets recorded notable month-on-month increases in March 2025: China & Hong Kong: +61%, ASEAN: +11%, United States: +28%, European Union: +73%, Brazil: +44%, Mexico: +15%, United Kingdom: +120%. This surge in export volume was partly due to the absence of disruptions caused by Vietnam’s extended Lunar New Year holiday, which had affected shipment volumes in the first two months of the year. Additionally, rising demand from China toward the end of March was supported by a decline in raw material prices.
Looking ahead to April 2025, raw pangasius demand may soften among major U.S.-bound exporters due to ongoing tariff-related uncertainty. Nevertheless, the China & Hong Kong market is showing signs of improved supply conditions, suggesting that overall demand for raw pangasius may remain resilient.
The average export price for all pangasius products rose by 2% in March, reaching USD 2.28/kg.
Thanks to a strong rebound, China & Hong Kong regained their position as Vietnam’s largest pangasius export destination in March 2025, importing over 21,000 tonnes. This followed a notable drop in February, which marked the lowest monthly import volume in the past year.
However, the average export price to China decreased by 4.2% to USD 2.04/kg after six consecutive months of gains. Vietnam’s pangasius exports to China reached USD 38 million in March 2025, up 6% from the same period last year.
By the end of Q1 2025, China and the United States remained Vietnam’s top two pangasius export markets, with frozen fillets continuing to dominate the product mix. Beyond the temporary tariff suspension and trade policy dynamics, consumer demand in both markets remains a decisive factor in shaping retail market trends. Consumers in both countries are familiar with the taste and quality of Vietnamese whitefish. If offered competitive pricing through tariff reductions or trade agreement benefits (e.g., FTAs), their purchasing decisions are likely to shift favorably - thereby boosting both import volume and export value from Vietnam.
Looking forward, there is cautious optimism that Vietnam and the United States will soon reach a mutually agreeable resolution on tariff issues. Concurrently, Vietnam is expected to accelerate negotiations to upgrade the ASEAN–China Free Trade Agreement to version 3.0 (ACFTA 3.0), opening up broader economic and trade opportunities for the region as a whole - and for Vietnam and China in particular.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Can Tho City statistics indicate that in 2025, following the merger of three former administrative entities - Can Tho, Hau Giang and Soc Trang - fisheries output in 2025 increased by 6.23% compared with 2024 with aquaculture production nearly 9.1 times higher than capture fisheries.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) According to the Ca Mau Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, Ca Mau province has achieved significant, comprehensive and substantive progress in combating IUU fishing in 2025, successfully fulfilling all tasks directed by the central government and strengthening fisheries governance. These efforts have established a solid foundation for the nationwide effort to lift the EC’s "yellow card" warning.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Ca Mau has exceeded its 2025 production targets, reaching nearly 595,000 tons of shrimp. This milestone reinforces the province’s position as Vietnam’s leading shrimp producer and a bright spot in the country’s seafood sector.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) According to Vietnam Customs data, cumulative shrimp exports from the beginning of the year through November reached $4.3 billion, up 21% year-on-year, continuing to serve as the primary growth driver of the entire seafood sector. In November alone, export turnover amounted to $393 million, up 14%.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In 2025, the fisheries sector continued to stand out as a bright spot in Ca Mau’s economic landscape, maintaining positive growth in both output and value.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) By the end of November 2025, Vietnam’s total pangasius export turnover had exceeded the $2 billion threshold, registering a 9% compared with the same period in 2024. In November alone, pangasius exports reached $195 million, also posting a 9% increase year-on-year, underscoring a stable recovery trajectory for the sector in the final months of the year.
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(seafood.vasep.com.vn) An Giang is focusing on expanding climate-adaptive marine aquaculture models, aiming for safe and sustainable production. This approach not only enhances economic efficiency but also helps fishermen stabilize their livelihoods amid weather fluctuations.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the first 10 months of 2025, Vietnam’s pangasius export value to China (including Mainland China and Hong Kong) reached $483 million, up 1% compared to the same period in 2024. October alone posted $73 million, a strong 19% increase year-on-year. The Chinese market currently accounts for nearly 27% of Vietnam’s total pangasius export value.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) According to data from Vietnam Customs, the country’s lobster exports posted another strong month in October 2025, reaching $93 million - a 75% increase from the same month in 2024. This performance extends the sector’s impressive growth streak from earlier in the year, pushing cumulative exports for the first 10 months to $712 million, up an extraordinary 135% year-over-year. Within the product mix, green lobster remained the dominant driver, accounting for 98% of total export value, with $700 million recorded in the first 10 months - a 141% jump year-on-year. In contrast, exports of spiny lobster and other lobster varieties declined slightly by 22% and 1%, respectively, indicating that market demand is becoming increasingly concentrated on the most sought-after product line.
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