The temporary 90-day suspension of the proposed 46% countervailing tariff on Vietnamese goods has provided exporters with a crucial window to ship their products to the U.S. and explore alternative market opportunities.
Currently, the export price of pangasius to the U.S. is approximately USD 3.40/kg. If the 46% tariff is implemented, the price could rise to around USD 5.10/kg—rendering Vietnamese pangasius significantly less competitive against other whitefish products. This scenario could result in substantial losses for exporters, where increasing export volume paradoxically exacerbates financial hardship. As a result, enterprises may be compelled to reassess their market strategies, potentially reducing their exposure to the U.S. and shifting focus to other regions.
In terms of volume, Vietnam’s pangasius exports across all markets experienced a sharp increase in March 2025, rising from over 55,000 tonnes to nearly 79,000 tonnes - an impressive 23% year-on-year growth.
Most major export markets recorded notable month-on-month increases in March 2025: China & Hong Kong: +61%, ASEAN: +11%, United States: +28%, European Union: +73%, Brazil: +44%, Mexico: +15%, United Kingdom: +120%. This surge in export volume was partly due to the absence of disruptions caused by Vietnam’s extended Lunar New Year holiday, which had affected shipment volumes in the first two months of the year. Additionally, rising demand from China toward the end of March was supported by a decline in raw material prices.
Looking ahead to April 2025, raw pangasius demand may soften among major U.S.-bound exporters due to ongoing tariff-related uncertainty. Nevertheless, the China & Hong Kong market is showing signs of improved supply conditions, suggesting that overall demand for raw pangasius may remain resilient.
The average export price for all pangasius products rose by 2% in March, reaching USD 2.28/kg.
Thanks to a strong rebound, China & Hong Kong regained their position as Vietnam’s largest pangasius export destination in March 2025, importing over 21,000 tonnes. This followed a notable drop in February, which marked the lowest monthly import volume in the past year.
However, the average export price to China decreased by 4.2% to USD 2.04/kg after six consecutive months of gains. Vietnam’s pangasius exports to China reached USD 38 million in March 2025, up 6% from the same period last year.
By the end of Q1 2025, China and the United States remained Vietnam’s top two pangasius export markets, with frozen fillets continuing to dominate the product mix. Beyond the temporary tariff suspension and trade policy dynamics, consumer demand in both markets remains a decisive factor in shaping retail market trends. Consumers in both countries are familiar with the taste and quality of Vietnamese whitefish. If offered competitive pricing through tariff reductions or trade agreement benefits (e.g., FTAs), their purchasing decisions are likely to shift favorably - thereby boosting both import volume and export value from Vietnam.
Looking forward, there is cautious optimism that Vietnam and the United States will soon reach a mutually agreeable resolution on tariff issues. Concurrently, Vietnam is expected to accelerate negotiations to upgrade the ASEAN–China Free Trade Agreement to version 3.0 (ACFTA 3.0), opening up broader economic and trade opportunities for the region as a whole - and for Vietnam and China in particular.
(vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached US$3.7 billion in the first nine months of 2026, up 11% year on year. Although growth has been supported by China and several markets within the CPTPP, momentum is slowing as exports to the United States and the European Union decline. Tariff pressures, international competition, and raw material challenges are creating significant hurdles for exporters in the final months of the year.
(vasep.com.vn) Markets are changing faster, buyer requirements are becoming more demanding, and trade barriers are growing increasingly complex. In this environment, seafood businesses need more than an understanding of current market conditions. They need a longer-term perspective to answer a critical question: Where will growth opportunities come from in 2027–2029, and what should businesses do now to prepare? This is one of the key reasons why VASEP is organizing Vietnam Seafood Summit 2026.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the Middle East reached US$113 million, up 7% year on year from the same period in 2025. Growth has become more pronounced in recent months. In August alone, exports to the region totaled US$20 million, an increase of 24%. This indicates that demand for Vietnamese pangasius in the Middle East is gradually recovering after a slowdown in March, although the pace of recovery varies across markets.
(vasep.com.vn) China’s shrimp imports continued to grow strongly in 2026, while Vietnam’s shrimp exports to the market also recorded notable growth. However, behind these positive figures lie two distinct trends: Chinese consumption is growing more slowly than imports, and lobster accounts for a substantial share of Vietnam’s shrimp exports to China, making its product mix significantly different from those of Ecuador and India. Exporters therefore need to assess each segment carefully to understand the opportunities and risks.
(vasep.com.vn) Changing markets, shifting buyer demand, and increasingly complex trade barriers are raising a key question for Vietnam’s seafood industry: Where will the new growth opportunities lie in 2027–2029?
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) As of the end of August 2026, Vietnam’s tilapia exports to the United States reached $21 million, representing a steep 48% year-over-year decline and accounting for 23% of the country's total tilapia export turnover. Frozen fillets accounted for 78% with the remainder consisting of whole frozen tilapia and frozen cuts.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) After a volatile first half of the year, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to Brazil registered robust growth in July and August 2026. In August alone, export turnover reached $19 million, surging 73% compared to the same period in 2025. Cumulatively for the first eight months, total export value reached $124 million, reflecting an 8% year-over-year increase.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Besides modifying their boats, many fishermen in Dak Lak province are making efforts to venture out to sea to harvest seafood during the rough sea season.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) At the Responsible Seafood Summit and TCRS Shrimp Summit 2026, organized by the GSA (Global Seafood Alliance) in Bangkok, Thailand, the conversation about the future of the shrimp industry began with one of its most important foundations: seedstock quality.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In the first eight months of 2026, Vietnam’s tuna exports to Lithuania surpassed $14 million, up 8% year on year. While the increase remains modest, it is notable given the continued pressure on Vietnamese tuna exports to the EU as a whole. More importantly, export turnover to Lithuania has shown a clearer recovery in recent months, making the market a destination worth monitoring for Vietnamese businesses in Europe.
VASEP - HIỆP HỘI CHẾ BIẾN VÀ XUẤT KHẨU THỦY SẢN VIỆT NAM
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