Shrimp exports to the US continue to be positive in Sep 2023

Vietnam's shrimp exports in September this year saw positive signals from markets such as the US, Australia, Canada, Belgium, and Taiwan with positive growth rates from 1% -54%. The remaining major markets such as the EU, Japan, and Korea still recorded negative growth from 10% to 26%, but the decrease was lower than in previous months. As for the China and HK markets, after positive growth in the three months of June, July and August, shrimp exports to this market continued their downward trend.

Regarding export products, as of September this year, the export value of whiteleg shrimp (accounting for 74%) reached US$1.9 billion, down 26%, exporting black tiger shrimp reached US$356 million (accounting for 14%), down 23%. The remaining is the export value of other shrimp with US$298 million, down 28%, in which the export of other canned shrimp and other dried shrimp increased positively by 20% and 57% respectively.

In September 2023, Vietnamese shrimp exports to China & Hong Kong decreased by 13% to reach US$61 million. Shrimp exports to this market decreased in September after consecutive positive growth in 3 months of June, July and August. Accumulated in 9 months, shrimp exports to this market reached US$454 million, down 6%.

After the long holiday period including the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day in China, shrimp demand recorded a decrease. Inventory is high because previously, China imported a lot of shrimp from Ecuador. Companies hold inventory and do not want to reduce prices to release goods. The nuclear waste discharge event from Japan is also said to have an impact on the demand for seafood in general, including shrimp, in the Chinese market. It is expected that in the last quarter of the year, China's shrimp consumption demand will not recover.

The US is regarded as a market with a positive trend in shrimp imports from Vietnam as shrimp exports to this market continued to grow positively in September - marking the 3rd consecutive month of positive growth. Shrimp exports to the US in September recorded the highest growth compared to the previous two months with an increase of 23% over the same period last year. In the first 9 months of the year, shrimp exports to the US reached US$520 million, down 23%.

Shrimp imports into the US in August this year continued to increase with a total of 73,429 tons, up from 71,388 tons in August 2022 and from 69,356 tons in July 2023. India, Ecuador and Indonesia continue to be the three largest shrimp suppliers to the US.

Along with the trend of increasing shrimp imports, the US economic growth forecast is also quite positive. According to IMF forecasts, the US economy will grow by 2.1% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024, up 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared to the forecast in July.

The US is a net energy exporter, so it benefits more when energy price increases due to the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war. In addition, consumer spending in the US is more stable, less affected by interest rate increases due to higher long-term mortgage debt ratios and financial support measures during the Covid-19 period in the US also more "generous".

With more positive signals from markets such as the US, Canada, and Australia, the demand for deeply processed shrimp tends to increase during the year-end holidays, and Vietnam's shrimp exports in the last months of this year continue to narrow their decline and recorded more positive results than the first half of the year.