EMS shrimp shortage to last 'at least couple of years'

And shifting to shrimp imports from EMS-free countries may not prove a long-term solution for the world market, experts warned in a Bangkok Post article.

To date, the disease has yet to be reported in Bangladesh, Ecuador, India and Indonesia, but last week it was

confirmed to be in Mexico.

"It's almost inevitably going to get to these other countries," said Briggs. "And if it does get in the other countries, which is pretty likely that it will, then there is going to be a really, really severe shortfall."

EMS first raised its head on Chinese farms in 2009, and gradually spread to Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand.

The four countries accounted for about 70 percent of the world's shrimp exports in 2011, according to figures from the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO). Thailand, the world's leading shrimp exporter, started to get hit by EMS in late 2012.

"My farm was affected in August last year, when we lost about 80 percent of our stock," said Prayoon Hongrat, president of Sureerath Farm in Chantaburi province, in eastern Thailand.

"We need to bring our water supply from outside and we think that is what spread the disease in our nursery," said Prayoon, whose farm specializes in organic shrimp raised in environmentally friendly conditions.

Scientists still don't know much about EMS. Over the past two or three decades, commercial shrimp farms have been hit by 20 viral and bacterial epidemics and new syndromes.

"This is different," said Simon Funga-Smith, Senior Fisheries Officer at the Bangkok FAO headquarters. "Most of the past diseases have been caused by a virus infecting the animal, but EMS is caused by a virus that is infecting a bacteria in the shrimp, which is then creating a toxin which is poisoning the animal."

"At the moment we've only literally just been able to sort of replicate the disease in the laboratory, which is the first step you need to take," he said.

Shrimp farms are highly prone to the rapid spread of new viruses because they are mono-cultures.

Since 2001, Asian farms have shifted from raising Penaeus monodon (black tiger), indigenous to Asia, to Penaeus vannamei, a Latin American prawn, chiefly because it has been less susceptible to diseases, until EMS hit.

The switch has accounted for Asian dominance in shrimp exports for the past decade. It has also led to overstocking of ponds and, inevitably, degraded pond environments and weaker shrimp stock.

"This disease came from God, because we have been too greedy," said Poj Aramwattananont, president of the Thai Frozen Foods Association.

Thailand shrimp production amounted to 485,000 metric tons last year, of which 80 percent was exported. The association expects only 270,000 metric tons in 2013, partly because of EMS but also because farmers are too afraid of EMS to restock their ponds, Poj said.

"In the future, each country, including Thailand, needs to figure out what is the right amount we should farm to

reach a sustainable production," he said.

China's total output of shrimps was more than 1.5 million metric tons annually before EMS, of which about 200,000 metric tons was exported, said Cui He, vice-president of the China Aquatic Products Processing and Marketing Alliance.

Since the EMS epidemic, China has been importing shrimp from India and Ecuador just to satisfy the huge domestic demand. "We used to be an exporting country, but now we are an importing country," Cui said.

Vietnam has also been importing shrimp to keep its processing industry going.

Despite a decline in volume, Vietnam earned nearly 1.4 billion from shrimp exports in the first seven months of this year, up 14.7 percent year-on-year, thanks to increased prices on the international market, the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers said.

But some of that was sourced from imported shrimp, which cost the country $170 million (€127.5 million) last year, it confirmed.

Malaysia, which produces about 80,000 metric tons of shrimp a year, has not been spared the EMS plague.

"Our main concern is how to overcome diseases, particularly early mortality syndrome," said Syed Omar Jaafar, president of the Malaysian Shrimp Association.