For importers, a strong dollar is positive, and helps moderate prices. For exporters, the strong dollar weakens overseas sales by raising the relative cost of exports, and with more products sold at home, also moderates prices.
The overall trend is for a strengthening dollar. This means cheaper imports and a reduction in competitive price pressures felt by US importers.
One of the major reasons for the 40% inflation in imported seafood prices since 2010 has been the weakness of the US dollar, which has made US buyers less competitive when bidding against buyers in other countries. This now seems to be reversing.
Japan
The yen reached a trading level of 105 yen per dollar yesterday, the highest it has been since 2008 (see chart below). The economic policy in Japan is aimed at weakening the yen to spur manufacturing exports, and to stimulate some inflation. One result has been the record prices for Alaskan snow crab in yen.
In the past three years, Japan’s ability to pay higher prices for crab, surimi, cod and other products due to the stronger yen has helped these prices either maintain their levels or go up.
Right now there is a tension between the stronger Japanese economy, with demands for more seafood imports; and a weakening currency, which makes those imports more expensive.
In our view, this balance will shift in 2014 towards the weakening currency being a primary factor, and this will make crab negotiations this spring in Canada very dicey.
Europe
The euro traded at a two year high against the dollar this week. This has helped US exporters sell salmon, pollock, and cod to Europe. It will also help Canadian shrimp exporters if this trend continues.
However, there has been some weakness in Europe as evidenced by some central banks lowering interest rates, and it is possible that the euro will not maintain its current relative position as the dollar strengthens.
Again, by this summer it may be a drag on export pricing.
China
The renminbi, or yuan, is now trading at a 20-year high against the dollar, although its rise is tightly controlled by the Chinese authorities. However, it has made imports more expensive; and as many Chinese seafood reprocessing companies operate on extremely tight margins, a weaker currency makes it harder for them to bid up prices for raw materials.
At the same time, a weaker yuan hurts Chinese importers who want seafood from abroad. Once again, the strength of the Chinese economy could cancel out any negative impact; but the change in currency makes the Chinese market more potentially volatile for seafood exporters. The other thing a weaker yuan does is make it more expensive for the Chinese to buy shimp — and again, on the margins, this may help moderate global shrimp prices.
Canada
Right now the Canadian dollar has moved from parity to around CAD 1.06 per US dollar, weakening about 6%. This trend is expected to continue. David Watt, chief economist at HSBC Canada, said he expects the Canadian dollar to weaken to about CAD1.10 per US dollar this year.
“Our view is that once the Fed tapers, the US dollar will have some momentum behind it. That will result in strength of the US dollar relative to a range of currencies.”
So the bottom line is that the environment of the past two to three years, where a weak dollar contributed to the rise of seafood prices in the US is changing, and as the dollar strengthens it will be a moderating influence on domestic seafood prices.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam's tilapia exports to Japan posted strong growth in the first half of 2026, while a promising new trend has emerged in the value-added product segment. Notably, Vietnamese tilapia fillets have been exported to Japan for use in sushi and sashimi, creating new opportunities to enhance the value of the industry in one of the world's most demanding seafood markets.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) After a relatively sluggish first quarter, Vietnam's exports of fish cakes and surimi showed a clearer recovery in the second quarter, particularly in June. Export value in the first six months of 2026 reached USD 148 million, down 2% year on year. However, the newly imposed 12.5% additional U.S. tariff on Vietnamese goods, intensifying competition in Northeast Asia, and increasingly stringent traceability requirements in the EU are making the outlook for the second half of the year more uncertain.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In June 2026, Vietnam's shrimp exports reached nearly USD 458 million, up 24% year-on-year. In the first six months of 2026, export value totaled USD 2.35 billion, an increase of 14.2% compared with the same period last year. Growth was driven mainly by the Chinese market and the strong performance of lobster exports, while shrimp exports continued to face pressure from U.S. tariffs and rising logistics costs.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) As part of Vietfish 2026, the Hosted Buyer Program is designed as a specialized B2B matchmaking initiative for selected international buyers, providing opportunities to meet directly with Vietnamese seafood exporters, gain the latest market insights, and experience Vietnam's seafood supply chain firsthand.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) A project titled "Sustainable Shrimp Industry Governance" has been launched in Ca Mau Province with the aim of supporting the transition of the province's shrimp industry toward higher quality, lower emissions, stronger governance capacity, improved supply chain traceability, and the development of a sustainable shrimp brand that meets the increasingly stringent requirements of export markets.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Khanh Hoa Provincial Agricultural Extension Center, in collaboration with the Northern Center for Marine Aquaculture Research and the Van Hung Public Service Center, recently organized a training course on disease-free golden pompano seed production. The program is part of a National Agricultural Extension Project aimed at developing industrial-scale seed production models to support sustainable marine aquaculture.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s pangasius exports have shown encouraging signs of recovery in 2026. In the first four months of the year, total export turnover reached USD 720 million, up 17% compared to the same period last year. This result reflects improving demand across many markets, as well as the efforts of Vietnamese pangasius enterprises to maintain production, secure orders, and adapt to changing market conditions.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The application of high technology in shrimp farming is delivering positive results in the coastal areas of Vinh Long Province, contributing to improved production efficiency and creating significant potential for further industry expansion. However, to fully capitalize on this potential, the province is focusing on aquaculture zoning, infrastructure investment, and promoting modern, sustainable production.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Đồng Tháp Province has intensified efforts to curb illegal fishing by strengthening vessel monitoring, law enforcement and seafood traceability.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Seafood businesses need solutions to overcome bottlenecks such as labor shortages, difficulty accessing capital, high input costs, and administrative procedures in order to maintain production, adapt to market fluctuations, and effectively exploit export opportunities.
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