For importers, a strong dollar is positive, and helps moderate prices. For exporters, the strong dollar weakens overseas sales by raising the relative cost of exports, and with more products sold at home, also moderates prices.
The overall trend is for a strengthening dollar. This means cheaper imports and a reduction in competitive price pressures felt by US importers.
One of the major reasons for the 40% inflation in imported seafood prices since 2010 has been the weakness of the US dollar, which has made US buyers less competitive when bidding against buyers in other countries. This now seems to be reversing.
Japan
The yen reached a trading level of 105 yen per dollar yesterday, the highest it has been since 2008 (see chart below). The economic policy in Japan is aimed at weakening the yen to spur manufacturing exports, and to stimulate some inflation. One result has been the record prices for Alaskan snow crab in yen.
In the past three years, Japan’s ability to pay higher prices for crab, surimi, cod and other products due to the stronger yen has helped these prices either maintain their levels or go up.
Right now there is a tension between the stronger Japanese economy, with demands for more seafood imports; and a weakening currency, which makes those imports more expensive.
In our view, this balance will shift in 2014 towards the weakening currency being a primary factor, and this will make crab negotiations this spring in Canada very dicey.
Europe
The euro traded at a two year high against the dollar this week. This has helped US exporters sell salmon, pollock, and cod to Europe. It will also help Canadian shrimp exporters if this trend continues.
However, there has been some weakness in Europe as evidenced by some central banks lowering interest rates, and it is possible that the euro will not maintain its current relative position as the dollar strengthens.
Again, by this summer it may be a drag on export pricing.
China
The renminbi, or yuan, is now trading at a 20-year high against the dollar, although its rise is tightly controlled by the Chinese authorities. However, it has made imports more expensive; and as many Chinese seafood reprocessing companies operate on extremely tight margins, a weaker currency makes it harder for them to bid up prices for raw materials.
At the same time, a weaker yuan hurts Chinese importers who want seafood from abroad. Once again, the strength of the Chinese economy could cancel out any negative impact; but the change in currency makes the Chinese market more potentially volatile for seafood exporters. The other thing a weaker yuan does is make it more expensive for the Chinese to buy shimp — and again, on the margins, this may help moderate global shrimp prices.
Canada
Right now the Canadian dollar has moved from parity to around CAD 1.06 per US dollar, weakening about 6%. This trend is expected to continue. David Watt, chief economist at HSBC Canada, said he expects the Canadian dollar to weaken to about CAD1.10 per US dollar this year.
“Our view is that once the Fed tapers, the US dollar will have some momentum behind it. That will result in strength of the US dollar relative to a range of currencies.”
So the bottom line is that the environment of the past two to three years, where a weak dollar contributed to the rise of seafood prices in the US is changing, and as the dollar strengthens it will be a moderating influence on domestic seafood prices.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) After a fairly strong upward trend in 2025, Vietnam’s clam exports entered 2026 with a mixed picture: strong growth at the beginning of the year, followed by a slowdown from March onward. According to Vietnam Customs data, Vietnam’s clam export turnover in the first four months of 2026 reached more than USD 38 million, up 2% compared to the same period in 2025.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s pangasius industry is facing new opportunities to expand its development space as many localities and businesses begin promoting marine farming models aimed at diversifying farming areas and adapting to climate change. However, for pangasius to truly “go offshore” and develop into a large-scale industry segment, significant challenges related to technology, broodstock, and markets still need to be addressed.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Vietnam’s tilapia exports in April 2026 reached USD 11 million, up 92% compared to the same period in 2025. This strong growth indicates that Vietnamese tilapia products are continuing to penetrate and expand rapidly in international markets. Cumulative export turnover in the first four months of 2026 reached USD 49 million, up 151% year-on-year.
(seafood.vasep.com) At VietShrimp Asia 2026, disease management trends in shrimp farming are shifting strongly from treatment-based approaches toward proactive prevention through environmental and pond ecosystem control.
(vasep.com.vn) After a period of strong growth, with export turnover reaching USD 38 million in Q1/2026 — up 174% year-on-year — the sector’s rapid expansion clearly reflects growing market opportunities.
(vasep.com.vn) In the first quarter of 2026, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the ASEAN bloc reached USD 44 million, up 7% compared to the same period in 2025. After falling to the lowest level of the quarter at USD 9 million in February — reflecting the seasonal slowdown in orders after the festive period — exports recovered strongly to USD 18 million in March, the highest monthly value of the quarter. This development shows that import demand for pangasius in ASEAN remains relatively stable despite short-term fluctuations.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On May 11, 2026, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced a positive comparability finding for Vietnam’s swimming crab fisheries, along with those of Indonesia and Sri Lanka, under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). With this decision, seafood and seafood products harvested from Vietnam’s swimming crab fisheries will continue to be eligible for import into the US market.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) After a slowdown in 2025, Vietnam’s tuna exports to Germany showed more positive signs in the first quarter of 2026. However, the recovery remains uncertain as consumer demand in Germany is still cautious, while market competition is increasingly driven by pricing and supply stability.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) After a sharp decline in 2025, Vietnam’s tuna exports to Israel are showing positive signs of recovery in the early months of 2026. According to Vietnam Customs data, export turnover to this market grew steadily month by month in Q1/2026, reaching nearly USD 10 million, up 33% compared to the same period in 2025. However, compared to Q1/2024, this level remains significantly lower, indicating that the recovery is still in its early stage following last year’s strong adjustment.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Entering 2026, the U.S. whitefish market has shown complex developments as global cod supply continues to tighten, while the U.S. trade environment becomes less stable. In this context, the U.S. market has had to become more flexible in sourcing alternative whitefish. However, relying heavily on Alaska pollock is not a long-term solution, as it is a strictly managed fishery with quotas and sustainability regulations, limiting any rapid increase in output to offset cod shortages.
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