For importers, a strong dollar is positive, and helps moderate prices. For exporters, the strong dollar weakens overseas sales by raising the relative cost of exports, and with more products sold at home, also moderates prices.
The overall trend is for a strengthening dollar. This means cheaper imports and a reduction in competitive price pressures felt by US importers.
One of the major reasons for the 40% inflation in imported seafood prices since 2010 has been the weakness of the US dollar, which has made US buyers less competitive when bidding against buyers in other countries. This now seems to be reversing.
Japan
The yen reached a trading level of 105 yen per dollar yesterday, the highest it has been since 2008 (see chart below). The economic policy in Japan is aimed at weakening the yen to spur manufacturing exports, and to stimulate some inflation. One result has been the record prices for Alaskan snow crab in yen.
In the past three years, Japan’s ability to pay higher prices for crab, surimi, cod and other products due to the stronger yen has helped these prices either maintain their levels or go up.
Right now there is a tension between the stronger Japanese economy, with demands for more seafood imports; and a weakening currency, which makes those imports more expensive.
In our view, this balance will shift in 2014 towards the weakening currency being a primary factor, and this will make crab negotiations this spring in Canada very dicey.
Europe
The euro traded at a two year high against the dollar this week. This has helped US exporters sell salmon, pollock, and cod to Europe. It will also help Canadian shrimp exporters if this trend continues.
However, there has been some weakness in Europe as evidenced by some central banks lowering interest rates, and it is possible that the euro will not maintain its current relative position as the dollar strengthens.
Again, by this summer it may be a drag on export pricing.
China
The renminbi, or yuan, is now trading at a 20-year high against the dollar, although its rise is tightly controlled by the Chinese authorities. However, it has made imports more expensive; and as many Chinese seafood reprocessing companies operate on extremely tight margins, a weaker currency makes it harder for them to bid up prices for raw materials.
At the same time, a weaker yuan hurts Chinese importers who want seafood from abroad. Once again, the strength of the Chinese economy could cancel out any negative impact; but the change in currency makes the Chinese market more potentially volatile for seafood exporters. The other thing a weaker yuan does is make it more expensive for the Chinese to buy shimp — and again, on the margins, this may help moderate global shrimp prices.
Canada
Right now the Canadian dollar has moved from parity to around CAD 1.06 per US dollar, weakening about 6%. This trend is expected to continue. David Watt, chief economist at HSBC Canada, said he expects the Canadian dollar to weaken to about CAD1.10 per US dollar this year.
“Our view is that once the Fed tapers, the US dollar will have some momentum behind it. That will result in strength of the US dollar relative to a range of currencies.”
So the bottom line is that the environment of the past two to three years, where a weak dollar contributed to the rise of seafood prices in the US is changing, and as the dollar strengthens it will be a moderating influence on domestic seafood prices.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The year 2025 marked a pivotal milestone for Vietnam’s seafood industry in its restructuring process toward sustainability, transparency, and higher value creation, amid continued uncertainties in the global economic and trade environment. Prolonged inflation in major economies, the rising trend of trade protectionism, and increasingly stringent requirements related to environmental standards, traceability, and social responsibility have posed significant challenges to seafood production and exports. Nevertheless, overcoming these pressures, Vietnam’s seafood sector has gradually demonstrated its adaptability, maintained growth momentum, and laid an important foundation for the next stage of development.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Amid the increasingly evident impacts of drought and saltwater intrusion, the shrimp-rice production model in Ca Mau province continues to prove itself as a viable direction, contributing to higher farmer incomes, improved soil conditions and the promotion of ecological and sustainable agricultural development.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) The management of fishing vessels, monitoring of fishing activities, and handling of violations in the fisheries sector in Lam Dong province have continued to be implemented in a synchronized and stringent manner, contributing to raising awareness of legal compliance among fishermen and aiming to end illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Can Tho’s fishery industry sustained steady growth in 2025 with total aquatic and marine output reaching nearly 783,000 tons, fulfilling 100% of the annual target. Aquaculture, capture fisheries and fishing fleet management were further strengthened, aiming for sustainable development in the coming years.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In 2025, Vietnam’s pangasius export turnover reached nearly USD 2.2 billion, up 8% year-on-year. This result indicates that pangasius exports maintained their growth momentum despite significant volatility in the global market environment. In December 2025, pangasius export value reached USD 200 million, up 10% compared to December 2024. This solid performance in the final month of the year reflects increased import demand for consumption and inventory replenishment in key markets.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) In 2025, Vietnam’s tuna exports to Spain experienced significant fluctuations. According to Vietnam Customs, during the first 11 months of 2025, export turnover for the first 11 months of the year edged up by 0.3% year-on-year, reaching nearly $15 million.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Deputy Prime Minister Bui Thanh Son has signed Decision No. 16/QD-TTg, dated January 5, 2026, approving the implementation plan for the Vietnam-Israel Free Trade Agreement (VIFTA). Under the plan, in the coming period, ministries, ministerial-level agencies, government-affiliated entities and People’s Committees of provinces and centrally-run cities must institutionalize and execute tasks focused on the dissemination of information regarding VIFTA and the Israeli market; legislative and institutional development, as well as enhancing competitiveness and human resource growth...
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Beyond achieving double-digit growth, Vietnam’s fish cake and surimi exports are showing a notable year-end "inflection point": the EU his accelerating with nearly twofold growth, China & Hong Kong are rising sharply, while the largest market, South Korea, signaled a slowdown in November. According to Vietnam Customs data, export turnover of fish cake and surimi reached $327 million in the first 11 months of 2025, up 22% year-on-year; November 2025 alone accounted for $35 million, marking a 5% increase. This serves as a critical foundation for exporters to reassess market structures and competitive intensity while finalizing order strategies for 2026.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) Ca Mau, widely regarded as the nation’s “shrimp capital”, continued its strong performance in 2025 as shrimp output reached nearly 600,000 tons, maintaining its position as Vietnam’s leading shrimp-producing locality.
(seafood.vasep.com.vn) On December 29, 2025, at the 2025 Pangasius Industry Review Conference held in Can Tho City, the Vietnam Pangasius Association announced that fingerling prices have surged to record levels due to acute supply shortages.
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