Vietnam’s shrimp exports face market volatility at year-end

China drives growth as exports to the US and EU continue to decline

According to Vietnam Customs data, shrimp exports in September 2026 reached US$467.9 million, up 4% year on year but slightly lower than in August. Cumulative exports for the first nine months totaled US$3.7 billion, an increase of 11%. Compared with the 14% growth recorded in the first half of the year, export growth is slowing.

China remained Vietnam’s largest shrimp export market, with exports reaching nearly US$1.2 billion, up 37% and accounting for 33% of total export value. Including Hong Kong, exports totaled US$1.3 billion, an increase of 35%. Demand for lobster, particularly green lobster, continued to make a significant contribution to this performance.

Meanwhile, exports to the US reached only US$498 million, down 15%, with September shipments plunging 32% year on year. Exports to the EU also declined 4.9% to US$406.4 million, including a 12.5% drop in September.

On a more positive note, exports to Japan reached US$440.9 million, up 6.4%; Australia totaled US$211.9 million, up 18.5%; and Canada reached US$130.5 million, up 11%. Exports to CPTPP markets exceeded US$1 billion, increasing 10.2% and helping offset declines in the US and EU.

By product, whiteleg shrimp remained the largest category, generating US$2.31 billion, up 5.9%. Black tiger shrimp exports reached US$360.3 million, up 7.3%. Notably, other shrimp products totaled US$1.08 billion, surging 25.4%, with live, fresh, and frozen products increasing 34.8%.

The export structure indicates that growth is increasingly dependent on the Chinese market and the “other shrimp” category, while whiteleg shrimp—the industry's mainstay in processed exports—is growing at a relatively modest pace.

Raw material supply increases, but production costs remain high

According to the Directorate of Fisheries and Fisheries Surveillance, domestic brackish-water shrimp production continued to perform positively. In the first nine months of the year, output exceeded 1.07 million tonnes, equivalent to 76.6% of the annual target. This included 791,400 tonnes of whiteleg shrimp and 281,500 tonnes of black tiger shrimp. To achieve the annual target of 1.4 million tonnes, approximately 327,200 additional tonnes will need to be produced in the fourth quarter.

However, shrimp farming continues to face significant challenges. Feed, post-larvae, electricity, and environmental treatment costs remain high, while fluctuations in raw shrimp prices are affecting profitability and restocking decisions. Disease outbreaks, particularly EHP, white spot disease, and acute hepatopancreatic necrosis disease (AHPND), continue to pose risks to production.

For processors, the challenge is not simply total production volume, but also the ability to secure a stable supply of raw materials with consistent quality, size specifications, and competitive prices. As export competition intensifies, high raw material costs may weaken Vietnam’s price competitiveness against Ecuador and India.

US market: tariff pressures and competition continue to weigh on exports

Vietnamese shrimp exports to the US continue to face pressure from trade-related tariffs, including anti-dumping and countervailing duties, as well as adjustments to import tariffs. These factors, combined with a consumer market that has yet to show a clear recovery and competition from major suppliers such as Ecuador and India, are affecting exporters’ ability to maintain orders and price competitiveness.

In particular, the final results of the 20th administrative review of anti-dumping duties (POR20), expected to be announced in November 2026, remain a key concern for exporters and importers. Uncertainty over import costs may make buyers more cautious when signing contracts, negotiating prices, and planning purchases for the final months of 2026 and early 2027.

In this context, exporters need to carefully assess the profitability of each order, control costs and contractual terms, maintain relationships with established customers, develop more value-added products, and expand into additional markets to mitigate risks.

Limited prospects for a strong breakthrough in the fourth quarter

Entering the fourth quarter, import demand for year-end holidays and Lunar New Year celebrations in Asian markets is expected to continue supporting Vietnam’s shrimp exports. China, Japan, Australia, and Canada may remain positive contributors, while prospects in the US and EU will continue to be affected by purchasing power, inventory levels, and trade policies.

Based on performance in the first nine months, Vietnam’s shrimp industry has grounds to expect that it can meet its 2026 export target. However, the outlook for the remaining months of the year will depend significantly on demand from China, developments in US tariff policies, and the industry’s ability to maintain a stable supply of raw materials at competitive prices.

Amid continued market volatility, exporters’ priorities extend beyond maintaining export value to ensuring order profitability, controlling costs, and mitigating trade risks. In the longer term, improving production efficiency, developing value-added products, and diversifying export markets will remain essential to strengthening the competitiveness of Vietnam’s shrimp industry and sustaining long-term growth.