China’s shrimp imports surge: major opportunities, but demand and product mix must be assessed carefully

China continues to increase shrimp imports

In the first eight months of 2026, China imported approximately 710,000 tonnes of shrimp, up 17% year on year, with import value reaching around US$3.56 billion, an increase of 12%. In August alone, imports totaled nearly 91,800 tonnes, up 7%.

China’s shrimp imports had already increased sharply in both the first and second quarters of the year. July marked a more noticeable slowdown, with imports reaching 92,400 tonnes, just 2% higher than a year earlier, while import value fell by 4%. In the first seven months, China imported 618,300 tonnes, up 19%, while import value increased by only 14%, reflecting downward pressure on average import prices.

Ecuador remained the largest supplier, shipping approximately 544,700 tonnes in the first eight months, up 20%. India ranked second, with more than 105,000 tonnes, up 21%. Thailand supplied around 17,400 tonnes, while Indonesia exported more than 10,000 tonnes.

These figures confirm that China remains one of the world’s largest shrimp markets. However, rising import volumes do not necessarily mean that final consumption is increasing at the same pace.

Imports are growing faster than consumption

This issue was highlighted at the Global Shrimp Forum 2026. Although China’s shrimp imports increased sharply in the first half of the year, importers in the market did not demonstrate a correspondingly optimistic outlook.

Part of the increase in shipments may have been driven by inventory replenishment, supply stockpiling, or demand for reprocessing, rather than by final consumer demand alone.

Retail and foodservice data also point to relatively modest demand growth. According to information shared at the forum, foodservice revenue increased by only around 2.8% in the first half of the year, while sales volumes across major retail chains grew by approximately 1.8%.

This is a key factor for exporters to monitor closely. If shrimp supplies continue flowing into China at a rapid pace while consumption fails to keep up, inventories could rise and put downward pressure on prices in the coming months.

Vietnam’s shrimp exports surge, but product mix matters

Against this backdrop, China remains the most important growth driver for Vietnam’s shrimp exports.

According to VASEP data based on Vietnam Customs figures, Vietnam’s shrimp exports reached US$3.476 billion from the beginning of the year through September 15, 2026, up 12% year on year. Exports to China alone totaled nearly US$1.142 billion, up 39.5%, accounting for 32.8% of Vietnam’s total shrimp export value. Including Hong Kong, exports reached nearly US$1.193 billion, an increase of 37.1%.

However, when assessing Vietnam’s position in China, one important characteristic must be considered: Vietnam’s export product mix differs significantly from those of its competing suppliers, Ecuador and India.

Ecuador and India compete strongly in the vannamei shrimp segment. Ecuador currently dominates China’s frozen vannamei shrimp market, benefiting from its large production scale, cost advantages, and ability to supply substantial volumes.

India also maintains an important position in vannamei and black tiger shrimp, particularly in headless shell-on products and raw materials for further processing.

Consequently, in the standard frozen vannamei segment, Vietnamese exporters face direct competition from Ecuador and India in terms of price, supply scale, and trading conditions.

In the lobster segment, by contrast, Vietnam supplies substantial volumes to China, while Ecuador and India account for only very small quantities.

Ecuador and India can therefore be considered major competitors for Vietnam in vannamei shrimp and, to some extent, black tiger shrimp, but not equivalent competitors in the live lobster segment.

These differences in product mix mean that Vietnamese exporters need to adopt two distinct approaches to the Chinese market.

For vannamei and black tiger shrimp, price competition remains the biggest challenge. When Ecuador can supply very large volumes at low prices, Vietnam will struggle to gain an advantage by relying solely on standard frozen products.

A more suitable strategy is to focus on processed products, customer-specific specifications, retail and HORECA channels, and products requiring higher quality, greater flexibility, and more value-added processing.

For lobster, Vietnam has a clearer competitive advantage, particularly because of its geographic proximity to China, its ability to transport live lobster, and its growing supply capacity. However, dependence on a single market also creates risks.

Growth is important, but volume should not be the sole priority

China will undoubtedly remain one of the most important markets for Vietnam’s shrimp industry in 2026. Its large import market and strong growth rate continue to offer substantial opportunities.

However, businesses need to distinguish between import growth and actual demand growth, while avoiding the assumption that all shrimp products constitute a single, homogeneous category.

In vannamei shrimp, Vietnam faces intense competition from Ecuador and India. In lobster, Vietnam has a distinct market position but is exposed to the risks associated with heavy dependence on one destination.

The appropriate strategy going forward is therefore not to pursue volume growth at any cost. Instead, exporters should closely monitor inventories, purchasing demand, import prices, and the needs of individual product segments. At the same time, they should increase the share of value-added products, maintain flexibility in delivery arrangements, and strengthen market risk management.

China is currently the biggest growth driver for Vietnam’s shrimp exports, but excessive dependence on a single market could also create significant risks. The opportunities remain substantial, but exporters will need to understand actual demand and the competitive dynamics of each product segment to capitalize on the Chinese market sustainably.