Shrimp import demand in main markets is forecasted to increase slightly in H2

In the first 5 months of 2023, Vietnamese enterprises have exported shrimp to 84 markets, bringing sales of 1.2 billion USD, down 34% compared to the same period in 2022.

The US market: In the first 5 months of 2023, Vietnam's shrimp exports to the US reached 227 million USD, down 42% compared to the same period last year. The US shrimp imports continued to decrease by 18%.

The reason for the decrease in shrimp exports to the US is that the price of Vietnamese shrimp is higher than other competitors such as Ecuador, India, and Indonesia. High inflation caused consumers to save money and switched to more affordable food.

In this context, US importers are more cautious and tend to decrease orders. Inventory is high, product quality is decreasing, storage costs are high, producing countries are in the harvest season, supply will increase, shrimp prices will continue to fall. High inventory, declining product quality, high storage costs, increased supply will together cause the shrimp prices to fall.

Furthermore, rising US interest rates have led to increased lending rates, surpassing those in Vietnam and adversely impacting the demand for shrimp imports in this market. However, the demand for US shrimp imports may increase slightly from August onwards to serve the demand for year-end festivals, driven by the year-end festival season. Shrimp prices also increased slightly because of large inventories, inflation and abundant supply from Ecuador and India.

The EU market:

In the first five months of 2023, consumption demand remained sluggish, resulting in a decline of 49% in Vietnam's shrimp exports to the EU, reaching US$153 million, down 49% over the same period. The slowdown can be attributed to various factors, including the Russian-Ukrainian war, prices increase, petrol increases, the euro depreciates.

In this market, Vietnamese shrimp also have to compete strongly with Ecuadorian and Indian shrimp. Recently, Ecuador and India began to increase exports of processed goods to the EU but could not meet the requirements of this demanding market. Therefore, there is still ample opportunity for Vietnamese processed shrimp to establish a stronger foothold in the EU market.

From July, when the shrimp harvest from other countries decreased, EU importers started to slightly increase their purchasing power from Vietnam to prepare for the year-end.

Mr. Do Ngoc Tai - Vice Chairman of VASEP, Director of Tai Kim Anh Seafood JSC 

Japanese market:

In the first 5 months of 2023, Vietnam's shrimp exports to Japan reached $192 million, down 27% over the same period. Vietnam mainly exports value-added shrimp to this market. Traditional goods such as HOSO shrimp from Vietnam to Japan must compete strongly with Ecuador and India because of the high price of Vietnamese shrimp. In the last 2 years, Japan has increased its purchase of Indian shrimp.

Vietnam's shrimp exports to almost all main markets decreased due to higher price than other suppliers

Vietnam's shrimp exports to Japan are relatively more favorable than other markets because shrimp from Ecuador and India have not been able to meet the needs of Vietnamese products in terms of value-added goods. It is expected that in the last quarter of this year, import demand from Japan will increase slightly.

China & HK market:

In the first 5 months of this year, shrimp exports to this market amounted to $214 million, experiencing a 22% decline. In the first 4 months, China significantly increased shrimp imports from Ecuador and India due to the higher price of Vietnamese shrimp. From August onwards, the demand for shrimp imports from Vietnam to China is expected to increase slightly to serve the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day and year-end festivals.

Korean market:  Vietnam's shrimp exports to South Korea reached US$136 million, down 29% over the same period. High inflation, currency devaluation, rising interest rates causing consumers to tighten spendings, and high inventories were the reasons why shrimp exports to this market decreased. From now to the end of the year, it is expected that demand will not fluctuate much and increase slightly to serve the year-end occasion.

Compiled by Thuy Linh