Shrimp exports to rise in the third quarter of this year

According to Vietnam Customs, in July 2012, shrimp exports continued to fall 6.8 percent after sliding 4 percent in June over the same period of last year. However, in the months ahead, the decrease in shrimp exports is expected to slow down, shrimp exports may rebound thanks to more stable supply of raw material and higher demand from importing markets.

In the third quarter of 2012, export value of shrimp products is predicted to touch US$690 million, down 4 percent over that of the same period of 2011 but up 19 percent against the second quarter of 2012 (US$579.2 million) and accounted for 36.9 percent of total seafood export value in the quarter (US$1.84 billion), bringing total shrimp exports in the first 9 months of 2012 to US$1.7 billion.

In the third quarter 2012, exports of black tiger shrimp and whiteleg shrimp will raise against the second quarter thanks to high demand in international markets for year-end consumption. Export value of whiteleg shrimp are forecasted to remain the growth of 30 percent in the third quarter over 2011 and make up 35 – 37 percent of Vietnam’s total shrimp export value.

State policies of slashing interest rate of bank loans and increasing line of credit for purchasing raw shrimp used for processing will contribute to boosting raw shrimp producing for processing and exporting. As estimated, about 35 percent of shrimp processors can afford to remain their operation, the others are lacking of capital, if they are not supported timely, it is hard for shrimp exports to soar in the third and fourth quarter of 2012.

The supply of raw material: In the third quarter of this year, concerns of shortage of raw shrimp for processing will be eased because it is on harvesting season in the country.

Besides, shrimp inventory in stores of many processors is still high. Raw shrimp imports into Vietnam for processing and reexporting may hold back from the second quarter because the domestic price of raw shrimp fell to the level that is equal to the price of imported raw shrimp. In July 2012, black tiger shrimp count 40 pieces per kilogram in Ca Mau province was quoted at VND115,000 per kilogram. The price of whiteleg shrimp count 100 pieces per kilogram fell to VND71,000 per kilogram.

Increasing competitiveness: Vietnam shrimp export has continued to compete with shrimp from Thailand, India, Indonesia and Ecuador. India has recently loosened its quarantine regulations on whiteleg shrimp broodstock import.

Accordingly, whiteleg shrimp broodstock will not experience quarantine for Baculovirus penaei virus. Regulation on whiteleg shrimp broodstock quarantine was issued in October 15th 2008. With the adjustment, whiteleg shrimp producing will be more favorable and its production will be boosted.

According to FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), in 2012, India’s whiteleg shrimp output will surge 30 percent to reach 100,000 MT over 2011. Indonesia’s whiteleg shrimp output is also expected to soar despite rainy season in some shrimp farming areas of the country.

At the Central America, in spite of early rains, shrimp farming situation is good. Shrimp output in South American countries is not high but there are a lot of inventories due to Europe’s low demand.

The global shrimp price is on a downtrend: In the third quarter of this year, Europe’s demand for shrimp imports is still gloomy due to regional economic downturn. Shrimp supply for the U.S. and Japan markets will rise which can put high pressure on shrimp price in these two markets.

(According to Report on Vietnam Seafood Export in Q.II/2012 - VASEP)